TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, canderson said: Anyone know the record number of days highs were above 40 at MDT in winter? We are gonna be near 15 at least soon. Insanity. m.p.h. or degrees F? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 51 for the high today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 31 minutes ago, canderson said: Anyone know the record number of days highs were above 40 at MDT in winter? We are gonna be near 15 at least soon. Insanity. @TimB84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 49 minutes ago, canderson said: Anyone know the record number of days highs were above 40 at MDT in winter? We are gonna be near 15 at least soon. Insanity. The average high temperature for today’s date at MDT is 43…. So we “should” still have highs over 40 for a high at this time. I see your point. We have had several days near and over 50, with a few more to go before we return to more seasonal temps next week. MDT is 4.6 above normal average temperature through yesterday for the month so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Very windy here in south Philly. Why is it always windy down here? I think we do wind well, we ain't got nothing on Philly. Yes, even if there is no real wind of note in the LSV, if you go to south Philly during the same day it is usually windy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 12 hours ago, pasnownut said: All that said, it still looks like better times ahead cold wise. Just gotta time it right for the snow. Yes, the pattern look on the ensembles still look good next week and beyond. Many teleconnections still look to be in our favor moving forward into prime climo snow season. Our snow time will come if this pattern look verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 13 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Glad you held on to the ledge without jumping (or called time out right before snapping the punt). It's not 4th down yet. I saw someone say we were in the first half of quarter one (or down one) the other day...I think that is too optimistic with nothing come the rest of this week but IMO first down has ended and we are in the second quarter/on second down now. My math for the Winter game is a simple 4 quarters -Dec.,Jan., Feb., & March. These of course are the 4 months when good snow is the most possible. Therefore, to me, we are currently just starting the second half of the 1st quarter of Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: @TimB84 I’ll try and look into this tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Just for holiday fun & entertainment purposes and whatever other disclaimers need to be applied… Here is the 18z GFS. It has mixed precip Christmas night and then snow on New Year’s Eve day. It would certainly make the holidays more festive to be tracking Winter storm chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Just for holiday fun & entertainment purposes and whatever other disclaimers need to be applied… Here is the 18z GFS. It has mixed precip Christmas night and then snow on New Year’s Eve day. It would certainly make the holidays more festive to be tracking Winter storm chances. I’m curious, what does it have in between? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 5 hours ago, canderson said: Anyone know the record number of days highs were above 40 at MDT in winter? We are gonna be near 15 at least soon. Insanity. Yea I mean as @Blizzard of 93 said, MDT’s average high temperature is still in the 40s and it doesn’t drop below 40ºF till December 31. And then 12/31 - 2/4 is the period of the year where MDT averages under 40 for a high, dipping to about 38ºF at the coldest. So # of 40ºF+ days isn’t really going to tell one much in December. Maybe the # of days of 60+ for a high or something like that, which we’re going to have at least one of those tomorrow. I know it seems like we always have high expectations for deep winter in December but more often than not it really doesn’t go that way.. or if we do have a wintry period it’s often offset by a significant warm spell somewhere in the month. It’s definitely been mostly mild this month so far but nothing I would consider historically warm… and alot of us have had dry and chilly nights as well. We certainly haven’t had say a Dec ‘98 type warm spell. For comparison, UNV was in the mid-high 60s 7 out of the first 10 days of the month that year, with two of those days cracking 70ºF. MDT had FIVE STRAIGHT DAYS of 70+ for a high from 12/3 to 12/7 with 75ºF being the peak on the 7th. On the other hand while our weather here in C-PA hasn’t been particularly crazy this month at least so far, the tornado outbreak last Friday in the Midwest and todays severe line of storms in the Plains (warning statements with 95mph storm motion) along with hurricane force wind gusts in a handful of mid-upper plains states (triggering wildfires in Kansas) is absolutely insane. This was a very extreme past week in weather for portions of the US. Also insane.. super typhoon Rai. Why’s that matter here? That’s likely what’s currently screwing the MJO up… “stalling” it instead of progressing where we want it go (through 7 into 8 preferably) 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 What a difference a year makes. Last December 16-17 we got record breaking snowfall of over 24" here in Williamsport. I was shoveling snow in the middle of the night on Wednesday last year. Now I am at my leisure looking at our forecast at weather.com. Wunderground is calling for a high of 58 so I am surprised to see the NWS is calling for 64. That puts us at breaking the 1971 record of 58 for December 16. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Interesting morning read. Between Cousins talk , serve weather in the Midwest. They had some really record strong winds yesterday. Snow seems blah here. Ugly model runs and temps in the 60’s today. Franklin is a great at recruiting, but lacking in the coaching department. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 20 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: As the block gets established the Euro control has a ns sw digging under us Christmas eve . Hopefully more looks similar or even better going forward. Yes, most models have some type of system approaching our region around Christmas. The 0z GFS had a nice front end snow to mix arriving Christmas night. Long way to go, but the pattern is heading the right direction next week. Now we just need to identify the specific storm chances. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 11 hours ago, canderson said: Anyone know the record number of days highs were above 40 at MDT in winter? We are gonna be near 15 at least soon. Insanity. As @MAG5035and @Blizzard of 93alluded to, highs in the 40s are considered normal for parts of winter, but here’s the top 10: Note that 8 of these have occurred in the past 30 years. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 hour ago, pawatch said: Interesting morning read. Between Cousins talk Oh wait. You were referring to incest. I'm sorry. Go on... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 The only thing I’ll add about “normals” is this, and I think I’ve said this before: seasonable temperatures are just fine if you don’t simply oscillate between normal and well above normal like what seems to happen a lot. The last time MDT recorded a negative double digit temp departure for a day was way back on 6/23. How many double digit positive departures have occurred between then and now? 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, TimB84 said: As @MAG5035and @Blizzard of 93alluded to, highs in the 40s are considered normal for parts of winter, but here’s the top 10: Note that 8 of these have occurred in the past 30 years. Is this Dec through Feb or calendar winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Is this Dec through Feb or calendar winter? DJF only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, TimB84 said: DJF only. I figured but wanted to confirm. Thanks for doing that. I volunteered you. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I figured but wanted to confirm. Thanks for doing that. I volunteered you. LOL Anyone need the data for Kansas City while I’m in there? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 It looks like per Blizz and Loseto teleconnections are in our favor starting next week let's capitalize on it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Anyone need the data for Kansas City while I’m in there? What time is it in France? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 Just now, paweather said: It looks like per Blizz and Loseto teleconnections are in our favor starting next week let's capitalize on it! I thought you punted until NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I thought you punted until NY? Unless and until the ensembles punt the way the operational models did overnight, we can’t punt yet. It’s 3rd and 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Unless and until the ensembles punt the way the operational models did overnight, we can’t punt yet. It’s 3rd and 14. I didn't punt but Pa did...I thought. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I thought you punted until NY? No punt it is 3rd down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Unless and until the ensembles punt the way the operational models did overnight, we can’t punt yet. It’s 3rd and 14. PS, do the ensembles ever punt? It takes a lot of kickers in the group to punt the whole deal. Usually some in there that go for it on 4th and 20 regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 3 hours ago, CoralRed said: What a difference a year makes. Last December 16-17 we got record breaking snowfall of over 24" here in Williamsport. I was shoveling snow in the middle of the night on Wednesday last year. Now I am at my leisure looking at our forecast at weather.com. Wunderground is calling for a high of 58 so I am surprised to see the NWS is calling for 64. That puts us at breaking the 1971 record of 58 for December 16. My wife, bless her heart, SHE brought up to ME the fact that a year ago we had a big snowstorm. Man, did I feel embarrassed having her reminding me about a significant weather event... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 33 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Unless and until the ensembles punt the way the operational models did overnight, we can’t punt yet. It’s 3rd and 14. Steelers defense = about a 95% chance the opponent converts that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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