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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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The big issue I see with the overall pattern getting into the second half of the month is despite nice trending on teleconnection forecasts with the EPO in the process of flipping negative,an eventual development of a -NAO (though looked more east based) and a AO being neutral/somewhat negative (more negative as time goes on with GEFS), the PNA is forecast to stay really negative throughout the period on all models/ensembles.

The EPO going negative will take away the overwhelming Pacific air source region and allow the cold air to push into the US, but the western trough (-PNA) implies southeast ridging in response. For us, the opportunity is there for a well timed system to give us maybe our first decent event of the season (such as what the 18z GFS has near the 21st). It could also not materialize at all or it could and get wiped out by a warmer system as the aforementioned pattern alignment probably puts the storm track pretty close to us. We need west based negative NAO/eastern Canadian blocking to force significant cold into our area if we’re going to work with a -PNA. MJO plays into all this as well, forecasts “backtrack” the MJO towards or even back into a 6 for a time before making the move to 8. Not a very big MJO expert but tropical forcing/convection takes time to make a pattern response in the mid-latitudes.

I do read JB here and there when I’m using the Weatherbell stuff and he did point out the typhoon tracking towards the Philippines. That extra source of convection (in the Phase 6 region I believe) is the cause of the MJO chart showing that “backtracking” toward 6. With regards to the MJO I think we need to see the definitive move to 8 before we see some more significant cold in the pattern for us, and that could take some time. Again like I said the other day, I think the pattern we’re looking for is coming but it could come after Christmas. 

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42 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Sterling mentioned the 12/21 threat in their overnight disco. So that's something.

Like I said to Pa yesterday, its a step down process, and as it has a zonalish look to it (moving forward), it doesnt take much distance to be white rain vs white gold, so we need to mentally prepare for that possibility.  I think i suggested "ankle deep" regarding the weekend cold, but that may be what we deal w/ for some time before a more appreciable change (hopefully for the better) takes hold.  Mag brought up the loopdedoo in P6 of the MJO plot and yes, I saw it, but factored that into my writing this week off.  That said, IF that happens, or a stall, and less movement out twds 7/8/1, then we may be back to doom n gloom.  I'm betting on the pronounced move into 7 and hopefully 8 as our saving grace.  That said, I only know what the MJO plots correlate to, and would not profess to know the factors that play into each of them (wrt ENSO).  

Lets hope the possible trends were seeing keep progressing beyond this week.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Like I said to Pa yesterday, its a step down process, and as it has a zonalish look to it (moving forward), it doesnt take much distance to be white rain vs white gold, so we need to mentally prepare for that possibility.  I think i suggested "ankle deep" regarding the weekend cold, but that may be what we deal w/ for some time before a more appreciable change (hopefully for the better) takes hold.  Mag brought up the loopdedoo in P6 of the MJO plot and yes, I saw it, but factored that into my writing this week off.  That said, IF that happens, or a stall, and less movement out twds 7/8/1, then we may be back to doom n gloom.  I'm betting on the pronounced move into 7 and hopefully 8 as our saving grace.  That said, I only know what the MJO plots correlate to, and would not profess to know the factors that play into each of them (wrt ENSO).  

Lets hope the possible trends were seeing keep progressing beyond this week.

 

 

Let's hope we need a good one before Christmas

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15 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I dropped to 26 last night, 'twas a good night for inversion cooling.  Almost all of the models had a nice depiction of the SLP with regards to early next week on the 0z suite.  Let's hope for more of that as the week progresses.  In the meantime, enjoy these pleasant days.  Toodles.

Yes it was. I only made it down to 31 overnight. 

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1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I dropped to 26 last night, 'twas a good night for inversion cooling.  Almost all of the models had a nice depiction of the SLP with regards to early next week on the 0z suite.  Let's hope for more of that as the week progresses.  In the meantime, enjoy these pleasant days.  Toodles.

Toodles to you as well,  my good chap. 

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31 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

12z GFS has high pressure pushing the storm early next week way south.

Was going to post in the western PA thread that overnight runs looked like we may have something to track early next week. Glad I didn't with the way 12z looked. 

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1 minute ago, dj3 said:

Was going to post in the western PA thread that overnight runs looked like we may have something to track early next week. Glad I didn't with the way 12z looked. 

Our thread is dead and that says everything we need to know about what has transpired so far this winter, unfortunately.

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41 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I'll take that over a cold rain every day. Every day. 

Forecast high for me today was 53, currently sitting at 54. Another bust with high temps. 

Oh, and I'm not going to lie...I'm digging this weather right now. It's another beautiful day. Never thought I'd feel this way about 50s in the middle of December. 

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