Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Up to 55 here. A few breaks popping in the overcast.

61 near the M/D line right now.  

[canderson]

Oh the newbie here is a dirt burglar, I just saw! 

(That's a Texas term for that god-forsaken strip of worthless land to the north)

Welcome to the friendliest sub on this board. 

[Iceresistance]

@candersonWait until Storm Season

[canderson]

10 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

@candersonWait until Storm Season

Oh I'm from East Texas ... will be in Dallas tomorrow. Everyone here has heard stories of real storms from there lol. 

[GrandmasterB]

Nice improvement on the CMC.  You can see how it could have been even a little better.  Obviously would love to see the Euro do something similar!

[Iceresistance]

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

Oh I'm from East Texas ... will be in Dallas tomorrow. Everyone here has heard stories of real storms from there lol. 

I've experienced them myself

[Itstrainingtime]

33 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

61 near the M/D line right now.  

Just reached 60 here. 

[CarlislePaWx]

Leading edge of the rain is out near Bedford.  I'd say it should be reaching me in about 2 hours.  Clouds are thick and darkening so I doubt I'm going much higher than my current temp of 56.5.

[Voyager]

Is it me or do the radar returns out west appear to be drying out some? It looked more impressive a couple of hours ago.

[TimB]

That is one ugly look next week on the Euro:

[paweather]

7 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

That is one ugly look next week on the Euro:

that is ugly!

[Atomixwx]

8 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

That is one ugly look next week on the Euro:

On another map, we'd be writing off Myrtle Beach as a total loss.

[TimB]

Just now, Atomixwx said:

On another map, we'd be writing off Myrtle Beach as a total loss.

So true. In this case, just a weak cutoff low that meanders through the southeast for days.

[paweather]

My prediction for Wednesday 3-4" in Palmyra

[Bubbler86]

28 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

That is one ugly look next week on the Euro:

Montreal and myrtle beach with the same high? (Snark)

[paweather]

what else did the EURO show other than warmth? What about Wed?

[Itstrainingtime]

13 minutes ago, paweather said:

My prediction for Wednesday 3-4" in Palmyra

I'm putting a decimal in front of your 2 numbers and hoping against hope for that. 

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, paweather said:

what else did the EURO show other than warmth? What about Wed?

I didn't see it, but those in the mid-atlantic thread said it showed...

Nothing. 

[paweather]

10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm putting a decimal in front of your 2 numbers and hoping against hope for that. 

Thanks!

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I didn't see it, but those in the mid-atlantic thread said it showed...

Nothing. 

 

[paweather]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I didn't see it, but those in the mid-atlantic thread said it showed...

Nothing. 

Just exciting!

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

 

Thanks just plain exciting!

[mappy]

Just now, paweather said:

Thanks just plain exciting!

Better than no snow, right? 

I posted the same in the mid-atlantic, but I'm taking a blend of the euro and gfs. Not as amped as the GFS, but not as dry as the euro. somewhere in between. I think places along the PA/MD border could eek out 1-2"

[TimB]

7 minutes ago, mappy said:

 

Toss. 1” area needs to be about 10 miles north.

[MAG5035]

The NAM appears to continue to be leading the way with the Wednesday system having much substance in terms of snow amounts across PA. The 3k version even has the 1-3” swath running more NW across northern PA. Today’s Euro does actually jive with the NAM with the swath placement, there’s just not a lot of QPF. More of a T-1” event with focus above the southern tier and LSV. GFS/Canadian pull the focus to the developing weak coastal low taking best precip and potential snow through the northern Mid-Atlantic/DC folks. 

Given the pattern I could see the cold not pressing south as much with todays frontal passage and seeing an eventual result more towards the northern solutions being presented, which I suppose is good in the short term and getting some kind of minor + snowfall in C-PA but unfortunately this overall pattern we’re facing going into at least mid month is not looking good for everyone’s cold December forecasts. I was also one that expected a quick start, though we did have some cold weather and a bit snow in the latter parts of November. Teleconnections looks atrocious with pretty much all of them opposing what we need (-PNA/+EPO/+NAO/+AO etc). One of the key things I mentioned in a previous longer post about the pattern is we need the PAC to be more supportive this winter as we can’t depend on the kind of extreme -NAO/-AO blocking that helped counteract a Pacific pattern that often wasn’t very supportive. So mid month is looking pretty toasted save for maybe that weekend system providing some kind of changeover thing behind it. Regardless, any cold isn’t sticking around in this pattern. 

How long this lasts probably depends on what the MJO does, as it is becoming of a stronger magnitude that should be a more significant driver in the overall pattern…especially in the alignment that’s being forecast teleconnections wise. Some models have been wanting to mire that in the Phase 6 or Phase 6/7 border range before maybe starting to shoot into 7 towards the end of the medium range (basically getting near X-mas week). As it’s been talked about here and elsewhere, Phase 7 for the NDJ three month avg period is a colder phase for most of the lower 48, in stark contrast to Phase 6.. which is NEVER a good phase for the eastern CONUS at any point in the late fall or winter. Also an aside on Phase 7 around our part of the country, a deeper look into those significance %  maps that go with the phase temp maps suggests a lot of variability in the eastern US vs say like the north central. Basically what I’m trying to explain is a flip to cold isn’t necessarily the slam dunk here that it probably is in the northern plains. A lower percentage on the significance map (the blues and purples) are stronger correlations to the temp pattern presented for each phase, which are based on historical cases. Phase 6 always presents basically the strongest case of “if it’s in this phase, the eastern US is toast”. 

So the MJO has been into Phase 6 for the last few days, which we are going to be seeing the influence of later this week as the EPO goes way positive to go with a pretty negative PNA. It seems the GFS/GEFS get it into 7 faster than the Euro/EPS, which is the one that keeps it mired in the 6/7 border longer. The latter is probably not going to flip our pattern to cold and you’d probably want to see it start steadily progressing 7 heading towards or into 8 (a better NDJ cold phase for the NE) to actually see what the 12-15 day range of the GFS has been showing. For the record I do still think we’re going to get the cold/wintry period we’re looking for down the road but we’re going to have to navigate this lousy period and however long it lasts first. Hopefully we won’t have to wait til after X-mas but that’s unfortunately a possibility on the table at the moment. 

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Toss. 1” area needs to be about 10 miles north.

I think its too dry too IMO

[Itstrainingtime]

10 minutes ago, mappy said:

Better than no snow, right? 

I posted the same in the mid-atlantic, but I'm taking a blend of the euro and gfs. Not as amped as the GFS, but not as dry as the euro. somewhere in between. I think places along the PA/MD border could eek out 1-2"

I said earlier today that any snow right now is better than nothing. We should take whatever we get and be thrilled with it in this pattern. 

[TimB]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I said earlier today that any snow right now is better than nothing. We should take whatever we get and be thrilled with it in this pattern. 

There’s always the hope against hope that maybe, just maybe the one run (so far) of the operational GFS that makes it cold from the 18th on (and differs wildly from the ensemble at this juncture) is right.

[paweather]

Let’s try and forget the models Wednesday I’ll take my 3-4” maybe in my head it will over succeed 

[TimB]

So how about a 90% contour for above normal probabilities covering all or part of 25 states on the CPC Day 8-14 map?