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Widespread Snow Potential January 16th to January 18th


sferic
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1 minute ago, Parsley said:

Good morning guys. -12 here this morning. Nice to see a mantle of white after the winter we’ve had near Philly. 

Looking like a snow-mix-backside snow scenario on the Tug. We’ll see how it plays out. Looks fantastic for western NY. 

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Nice!

-10 here this morning just to your NW, tonight is expected to be a couple degrees colder..

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Just now, wolfie09 said:

Nice!

-10 here this morning just to your NW, tonight is expected to be a couple degrees colder..

Wow. Hoping to take the kids to Osceola Ski Sunday before the storm. Should be much more bearable tomorrow. Honestly, looking forward to the backside snow/wind Monday up this way after the lull/dry slot potential Monday morning. We'll see what shifts occur before the onset of the event. Hopefully nothing too significant.

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I'm not sure how the 12Z GFS keeps the same snow map with a stronger and more west track (basically a 982mb over BGM). Has to be mixing issues even to ROC - just checked, warmest 700 temp around -5C over the airport. Maybe all snow then.

Seems a stronger LP is creating some dynamic cooling.

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2 minutes ago, vortmax said:

I'm not sure how the 12Z GFS keeps the same snow map with a stronger and more west track (basically a 982mb over BGM). Has to be mixing issues even to ROC.

This storm keeps getting deeper so perhaps dynamic cooling is now coming into play on the western side? 

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4 minutes ago, vortmax said:

I'm not sure how the 12Z GFS keeps the same snow map with a stronger and more west track (basically a 982mb over BGM). Has to be mixing issues even to ROC.

Its not really any stronger than previous runs. Just small timing differences in map. Toggle between runs and its essentially the same. Previous run has it near Scranton pa at 983mb this run has it 982 near bmg. So its small timing differences 

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18809986767_868_278_copyImage.thumb.gif.0e7fdb60ad85da5184e9e38be2b28c82.gif

7 minutes ago, vortmax said:

I'm not sure how the 12Z GFS keeps the same snow map with a stronger and more west track (basically a 982mb over BGM). Has to be mixing issues even to ROC - just checked, warmest 700 temp around -5C over the airport. Maybe all snow then.

Seems a stronger LP is creating some dynamic cooling.

Yeah its definitely colder aloft

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