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Jan 16-17th Boom or Bust


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39 minutes ago, Kasper said:

Where the heck is @Carvers Gaphe usually eats these damn things lol

Been out doing some running this morning and some other errands.  Then watched the UT basketball game.................................................Recovering from the UK/UT game.  I can only handle watching so much bad basketball in one afternoon, and then try to watch models after that.  

Update:  18z Euro looked steady.  It also had a slight 25 mi SE jog over the Carolinas.  Didn't make much difference to the run.  Also, there are just times when I don't know what the crap it is going to do.  LOL.  This is one of them.  

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We are either going to be...

:flood:  or  :sled: or :sizzle: or :shiver:....but for now I am :popcorn:.  Seriously @Kasper, I post a lot when the board is quiet, especially medium and long range stuff.  But when you all are doing the discussing, it is a blast just to sit back and watch the forum go to work.  And man, the 18z GFS looked good.  This storm is likely the beginning of about a 12-14 day cold shot.  Fingers crossed that the STJ stay active.  We are likely in a good spot for once during the last two weeks of January.  

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2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

We are either going to be...

:flood:  or  :sled: or :sizzle: or :shiver:....but for now I am :popcorn:.  Seriously @Kasper, I post a lot when the board is quiet, especially medium and long range stuff.  But when you all are doing the discussing, it is a blast just to sit back and watch the forum go to work.  And man, the 18z GFS looked good.  This storm is likely the beginning of about a 12-14 day cold shot.  Fingers crossed that the STJ stay active.  We are likely in a good spot for once during the last two weeks of January.  

@carvers Looked  good for this storm or after?

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7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Been out doing some running this morning and some other errands.  Then watched the UT basketball game.................................................Recovering from the UK/UT game.  I can only handle watching so much bad basketball in one afternoon, and then try to watch models after that.  

Update:  18z Euro looked steady.  It also had a slight 25 mi SE jog over the Carolinas.  Didn't make much difference to the run.  Also, there are just times when I don't know what the crap it is going to do.  LOL.  This is one of them.  

I didn’t even bother watching the game, that offense is about as bad as the models with this storm, oh and the defense went south as well! 

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Not something I see very often Chattanooga local TV WTVC News Channel 9 is not aligning with the NWS and channel 9 tends to be pretty conservative with snow but they are saying 1"-3" valley and 3"-6" or higher mountains. I think that is more reasonable than MRX forecast.

Haven't checked Knoxville local stations, I live in an area where both cities TV stations are available.

https://fb.watch/az7tq0RViK/

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk













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Not something I see very often Chattanooga local TV WTVC News Channel 9 is not aligning with the NWS and channel 9 tends to be pretty conservative with snow but they are saying 1"-3" valley and 3"-6" or higher mountains. I think that is more reasonable than MRX forecast.

Haven't checked Knoxville local stations, I live in an area where both cities TV stations are available.

https://fb.watch/az7tq0RViK/

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk















Which is big change of course from them… they were talking about not seeing anything this morning.


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14 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Not something I see very often Chattanooga local TV WTVC News Channel 9 is not aligning with the NWS and channel 9 tends to be pretty conservative with snow but they are saying 1"-3" valley and 3"-6" or higher mountains. I think that is more reasonable than MRX forecast.

Haven't checked Knoxville local stations, I live in an area where both cities TV stations are available.

https://fb.watch/az7tq0RViK/

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk












 

David Aldrich is calling for .5 inch to 3+ inches in the valley I guess that’s why he’s Captain Accurate! Lol

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25 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

@carvers Looked  good for this storm or after?

To clarify....Next two weeks AFTER the storm.  18z GFS has a big storm next weekend as does the Euro and CMC.  Euro and CMC are both to the SE with that system, but I suspect it trends to the NW as pretty much every storm has.  This current storm moved almost 300-400 miles west once it began to move - I think.  Good look for E TN   IF it holds.

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The waiting game is on. The hours until snow actually starts is the hard time. Will it, won't it? I hate marginal set ups. I want a Miller A/Slider with 20s forum wide. 
Not sure where the HRRR had my temperature a few runs ago for this hour, but it's 36/32. 

Looking around temps are pretty uniform across ETn below 2500’. I’m at 38 and would think normally you would be 7-10 degrees colder than me.


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4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

So far, it's overperforming everywhere. Parts of Iowa got 14-15 inches. I believe it had been showing 6-8 there. 

Unfortunately, past performance doesn't guarantee future success. 

On the other hand, my buddy in Batesville, AR has 0" still and NWS had him at 3-5". But it's like he's in a snow dome or something.

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6 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

On the other hand, my buddy in Batesville, AR has 0" still and NWS had him at 3-5". But it's like he's in a snow dome or something.

It wasn’t supposed to start snowing for them until tonight.  They should be getting into it within the next few hours.  8-1am is their prime time to rack up some snow ️ 

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