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Jan 16-17th Boom or Bust


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2 minutes ago, Uncle Nasty said:

Not sure what to think at the old homestead. So many models spitting out so many different scenarios. Look what the Weather Channel forecast gave us for tomorrow (Sunday). Snow? What snow?emoji2369.png611f3e1be6374aa52b90898e7d9ac3fc.jpg

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk
 

They change for Lawrence County every hour. Went from 3-5 inches this morning, 1-3 inches around lunch, and now under a winter storm warning with the low only getting to 36 with possible 1 inch. 

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[mention=15012]Matthew70[/mention]
giphy.gif?cid=790b7611a4639fdc8953c53a7fed8f38d871c38cf31cc930&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g
 
Keep in mind this is only up through tomorrow AM:
KoA53w1.png
 
 

Low pressure goes due north 150 miles in the last two time frames. Nothing would surprise me with this system but that doesn’t seem realistic without some blocking it seems.

2394ee82ca7f4d2e8ef8ffebd02d0df8.png
d6201ba87fc8acc9a9d3b7da4a500c65.png


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1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:


Low pressure goes due north 150 miles in the last two time frames. Nothing would surprise me with this system but that doesn’t seem realistic without some blocking it seems.

2394ee82ca7f4d2e8ef8ffebd02d0df8.png
d6201ba87fc8acc9a9d3b7da4a500c65.png


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I don’t think I’ve ever seen a low pressure do these kind of movements that the models are spitting out. I mean, a 2 frame increment is 2hrs in real time. So, the low is going to move 150mi due north in 2hrs time only to transfer again later? I don’t think I’ve ever seen a low pressure transfer twice in the same storm. However, that’s what these models are implying. I will have to see it to believe it.

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27 minutes ago, Uncle Nasty said:

Not sure what to think at the old homestead. So many models spitting out so many different scenarios. Look what the Weather Channel forecast gave us for tomorrow (Sunday). Snow? What snow?emoji2369.png611f3e1be6374aa52b90898e7d9ac3fc.jpg

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk
 

Is that Cantore? His face sums up up that forecast so well. 

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20 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

NBM must rely heavily on the HRRR. The 21Z ends up looking almost exactly like MRX’s call map. No bueno for the valley.

HRRR has been giving me near foot totals here in Marshall county, yet the NBM is showing less than an inch. I have no idea what it's blending, but it's not any of the models I'm watching. The fv3 and see of the SREF family is really low, maybe that's it.

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Here'a a weird HRRR theory, what if it it is just got some parameter that automatically raises the temp when there's daylight:

giphy.gif?cid=790b76111c3ca5fb2009a07c92

 

I don't know why else it would randomly decide to change some areas over to rain or mix? Does it think the downsloping is increasing? 

Sound from over my area at the end of that run:

hrrr_2022011522_018_36.03--84.53.png

Look how small that boundary layer warmth is. 

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HRRR still ticking flatter (positive tilt) each run. Likely a result of the ULL diving further South.  
 

the more ticks we get like this the better it will get for Eastern areas.  I don't buy the HRRR mixing issues right now. It is trending colder by the hour.  There will be mixing but I don't think it will be quite as widespread as hrrr shows

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13 minutes ago, Coach B said:

HRRR has been giving me near foot totals here in Marshall county, yet the NBM is showing less than an inch. I have no idea what it's blending, but it's not any of the models I'm watching. The fv3 and see of the SREF family is really low, maybe that's it.

It uses every OP, and Ens...40+ models plus real time obs 

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3 hours ago, Shocker0 said:

Monterey or Jamestown are usually better than Crossville. Or NW Cumberland County is good but no hotels here other than a campground on Exit 311

Agreed. You and I are much higher elevation-wise than downtown Crossville.,. Have gotten 8 inches before and driven to town where they had maybe an inch and a half

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Here'a a weird HRRR theory, what if it it is just got some parameter that automatically raises the temp when there's daylight:
giphy.gif?cid=790b76111c3ca5fb2009a07c9268d118d16472db95895ce7&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g
 
I don't know why else it would randomly decide to change some areas over to rain or mix? Does it think the downsloping is increasing? 
Sound from over my area at the end of that run:
hrrr_2022011522_018_36.03--84.53.png
Look how small that boundary layer warmth is. 

I’ll be extremely impressed with the mods if they can sniff out the minor details and gets the ptype right.

What’s disheartening is 90% of the time this would be an ideal setup for a state wide storm but somehow we have found a path to the 10 percentile.


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Just now, PowellVolz said:

What’s disheartening is 90% of the time this would be an ideal setup for a state wide storm but somehow we have found a path to the 10 percentile.

Agreed. I was just thinking I'm probably too worked up over random runs of the HRRR, but it has sniffed out my temp problems pretty well this winter. 

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7 minutes ago, Wintersnow888 said:

Agreed. You and I are much higher elevation-wise than downtown Crossville.,. Have gotten 8 inches before and driven to town where they had maybe an inch and a half

Yep, we benefit from being 150-200ft higher than town, plus further Northwest closer to the edge of the Plateau so the storms smack into us first and stick around longer. I remember in January 2016 we got around 10" with 2ft drifts in our part of the county while town ended up with 2-4" because they had mixing issues until late in the afternoon while it switched to snow here several hours earlier. I could see tomorrow play out like that, but I can also seeing it be a bust everywhere. Hopefully it isn't though, but I'm not getting my hopes up lol.

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