Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Jan 16-17th Boom or Bust


Wurbus
 Share

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, McMinnWx said:

I Would not be suprised to see Knox get screwed.  I once, in another lifetime lived in Etowah and we would regularly get more snowfall in an area wide event than did Knoxville.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why is NBM so much stingier than all other guidance? 
Yeah I don't get it, maybe it'll verify and it will be the crowning achievement in modeling, but I think so much emphasis on climatological norms and bias will eventually lead to it being vastly wrong on a storm maybe this one, maybe not but eventually.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man this sucker really seems to be digging to me. At the latitude of LA's northern border and still heading SE. 

giphy.gif?cid=790b76118d1779d93275b870c1

 

It does look like it is starting to make the turn, but you tell me. Maybe I'm looking at the wrong water vapor level, but it looks SW of where the 18z 3km NAM has it. 

giphy.gif?cid=790b76110e7968d5866573d631

The above gif starts at 1 PM and is in hourly increments. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Man this sucker really seems to be digging to me. At the latitude of LA's northern border and still heading SE. 

giphy.gif?cid=790b76118d1779d93275b870c1

 

It does look like it is starting to make the turn, but you tell me. Maybe I'm looking at the wrong water vapor level, but it looks SW of where the 18z 3km NAM has it. 

giphy.gif?cid=790b76110e7968d5866573d631

The above gif starts at 1 PM and is in hourly increments. 

Definitely seems to still be SSE vs SE. this is when the HRRR comes in handy with the hourly runs. In a game of inches an extra hour of digging is miles and miles of differences. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Shocker0 said:

Monterey or Jamestown are usually better than Crossville. Or NW Cumberland County is good but no hotels here other than a campground on Exit 311

Or stay at the hotel right off Exit 317 and drive to exit 311 after the snow as there is almost always more there. Monterey is Exits 301 and 300 and has a nice hotel in town though (Bethel Inn & Suites)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Holston_River_Rambler check this out.  Notice How the hrrr has steadily ticked more positively tilted over the day.  Wonder if this is in relation to the 500mb vort.  This could be what is helping easterne areas and getting the deform band across the valley.  It's still ticking more vertical each run.

 

I would assume the less tilted this becomes the further east that deform band ends up. 

 

E4B4D34B-2168-4856-9ACB-C0585B5D1E41.gif.5cbcd41d2729d9448c10842265cef70c.gif

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

Or stay at the hotel right off Exit 317 and drive to exit 311 after the snow as there is almost always more there. Monterey is Exits 301 and 300 and has a nice hotel in town though (Bethel Inn & Suites)

There is a room available there, going to try and convince the wife to do a little getaway 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Reb said:

There is a room available there, going to try and convince the wife to do a little getaway 

Awesome! Monterey or Crossville? Monterey looks to do better than Crossville with this storm and that's typical ins almost every winter storm here. But with them being further north and west it may help cut down on mixing issues there. I just hope it isn't a bust all around as there is potential for it with this system for sure. But that looks to be one of the more solid areas as every model keeps spitting out 6-12"+ it seems.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not sure if this has any effect what so ever, but alot of the Hires models ingest data from PWS networks and other real time data. Thus is from my PWS, recording the pressure wave from the Tonga explosion, would have been around time 12z to 18z data was being ingested.
Screenshot_20220115-152658_Chrome.thumb.jpg.67ed5433d535d3c2f7ee2d3f4bf4c212.jpg

What are you getting at here?


.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not sure if this has any effect what so ever, but alot of the Hires models ingest data from PWS networks and other real time data. Thus is from my PWS, recording the pressure wave from the Tonga explosion, would have been around time 12z to 18z data was being ingested.
Screenshot_20220115-152658_Chrome.thumb.jpg.67ed5433d535d3c2f7ee2d3f4bf4c212.jpg
My PWS caught it also! Didn't think about that data being ingested. Mine is also part of the NWS PWS program.c0595b39c70ab8b7f9fb074c213d5311.jpg

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Mr Bob unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...