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Jan 16-17th Boom or Bust


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5 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said:

Wonder if with this new information MRX will start issuing advisories/watches further east, even if you go by the worst models can't believe they've not at least issued a WWA for the eastern counties

They will likely add winter products of some kind with their update here shortly. I am not sure what though. It's a tough forecast at best. Especially in the I-81 corridor.

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Saturday Night
Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 1am. Low around 32. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Sunday
Snow. High near 36. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.     
From NWS.... Just thought it was notable that the Sunday part doesn't give a number....it just says Snow ....
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MRX upgraded SWVa to a winter storm warning. Left the watch for my area and added a tier of counties below the watch to a WWA. I'm curious to read their AFD explaining why they did so. It's certainly not based on model guidance from overnight. Also not sure why it takes so long for the AFD to come out on days when it's potentially snowy. It normally rolls out around 3 am, looks like it's going to be 2 hours behind this morning.

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Just now, Scottie16 said:

Reading the latest guidance MRX is all in on the NAM. 

They finally released the AFD. Cited no winter storm warning here due to uncertainty, though I'm not sure how it's a certainty in parts of SWVA under a warning vs here. They got roasted on the last event when it didn't snow in Knoxville. I think they are gun shy. 

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Just noticed that MRX dropped a bomb at the end of their disco, for areas above 4000'

Finally, the gusty winds in combination with snow will bring near blizzard
like conditions to the Smokies, generally above 4000 feet. It is
certainly possible a blizzard warning may be needed later, but
for now will let the WSW handle it.
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Slept in today and waking up to a mix of maps in the Chatty area. 1/2 are showing decent snow in our area and 1/2 are showing the infamous no snow for us. Just watched WRCB and the weekend met is calling for a dusting, if anything at all, similar to the last system. I think when these maps spit out 2-4" in our area they would have to be taking the local ridges and mountains into consideration because
it appears we are simply too warm for an earlier changeover to get any accumulations. Maybe [mention=499]John1122[/mention] can chime in on my sentence regarding the maps and local mountains.

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For my west Tn and part of middle Tn folks.  Here is a map NWS Memphis put out early this morning.    It puts down 3-6 for most of west Tn except the far northwest corner of the state.  I-40 from Jackson to Nashville looked like it Was in a good spot again, Good look for the majority of west Tn also though.  

 

https://www.weather.gov/meg/winter

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It is always curious to me how MRX makes their decision to issue winter weather warning products.   They always err on the side of caution when it comes to severe weather events like tornadoes and issure many warnings that never pan out. It seems like this can cause people to often disregard these warnings but with winter events they seem much more hesitant to pull the trigger.  Maybe it is an issue of scale of impact?

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47 minutes ago, Uncle Nasty said:

Slept in today and waking up to a mix of maps in the Chatty area. 1/2 are showing decent snow in our area and 1/2 are showing the infamous no snow for us. Just watched WRCB and the weekend met is calling for a dusting, if anything at all, similar to the last system. I think when these maps spit out 2-4" in our area they would have to be taking the local ridges and mountains into consideration because
it appears we are simply too warm for an earlier changeover to get any accumulations. Maybe [mention=499]John1122[/mention] can chime in on my sentence regarding the maps and local mountains.

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk


 

Very true.  That happens in NE TN all the time, especially Johnson City.  Models try to smooth out the transition form the mountains to lower elevations when in fact the transition is quite sharp if looking directly from above.  The real pain is when modeling tries to smooth things out between the Plateau and Apps - the distance between the two is pretty narrow up here.  I have set the bar at 1" for MBY.  Anything else is gravy.  With wrecked thermals, downscoping, dry slot, and a low tracking into the Apps....not a great set-up at first glance.  Maybe the eastern valley gets a surprise.  With cold air not already in place, super tough forecast for the pros.  

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3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Very true.  That happens in NE TN all the time, especially Johnson City.  Models try to smooth out the transition form the mountains to lower elevations when in fact the transition is quite sharp if looking directly from above.  The real pain is when modeling tries to smooth things out between the Plateau and Apps - the distance between the two is pretty narrow up here.  I have set the bar at 1" for MBY.  Anything else is gravy.  With wrecked thermals, downscoping, dry slot, and a low tracking into the Apps....not a great set-up at first glance.  Maybe the eastern valley gets a surprise.  With cold air not already in place, super tough forecast for the pros.  

Yep I'm in the same boat. Tough seeing a lot of 00z and 06z models show 6-8" for me and knowing the cutoff will be way sharper than they are able to show..  I knew this one was a heartbreaker as soon as we went away from the Miller A track.  Going to be a LONG day tomorrow watching areas to my east and west get buried and we get the slot. 
 

my one last hope is wrap around NW flow and maybe that kicker energy will help boost that.

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