anonymous1968 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hurricaneguy said: At this point it is highly unlikely. Looking like about the same amount of snow we saw last week. That's what I was afraid of. Oh well, it was fun to have some excitement for it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 23 minutes ago, anonymous1968 said: Alright, I am kind of a lurker on here because I am a teacher in Sullivan County and have a vested interest in snow. Sullivan is a big county that has a ton of different elevations and also has Kingsport (which we all know is where snow goes to die). Let's put this in these terms, does this produce enough and stick around enough to get us a day off on Tuesday? Barring a model change at the end(which can happen on occasion) and just for fun....Kingsport hard "no" at this point unless they just need to burn a day. Bristol maybe a delay. Sullivan Co 60/40 out. Storm has trended away from Kingsport getting significant accumulations during the past 24 hours. Most modeling has Kingsport(the lowest elevation of the TRI and only city on an actual river which limits snow in addition to the EB) with a combo of snow to rain/ice and back to light snow. Best window for Kingsport would be Jan20-30th. Best to set the bar really, really low with this storm. Any accumulation greater than 1", celebrate.....Best chance or snow actually accumulating should be on the back side of the storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I don't know if what I'm about to say is how this works, but it looks like there is a weakness in the windfields that the 850 low is getting pulled toward: that seems to be what is encouraging it to pull north. That is what is messing up the 850..needs more separation or the valley is left on the outside looking in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 My wife asked me to explain our snow chances in Knoxville using terms she could understand, and not all the technical info discussed here. I told her "fading faster than a geriatric erection". She understands now. 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The way you look at it is if models dont change it is going to be a dud for the valley but when do models not change in 48 hours with snow in the forecast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 RGEM shoves the 850 Low abt 100 miles east of other models. Because of this the Surface low never splits up into TN. Instead it shoots off to the east. This pulls the back deform band across Eastern TN instead of dryslotting. Similar to some EURO solutions recently. The problem is this robs Western areas of the deform band pivot. So while Eastern TN is better off with more qpf the western portions are much drier. Major outlier for now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 This shows how close the valley is...temp cross sectional on the low levels at TYS (from 3k NAM pretty much same across all modeling). Finger of death for snow fans..but wouldn't take much to go either way. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: RGEM shoves the 850 Low abt 100 miles east of other models. Because of this the Surface low never splits up into TN. Instead it shoots off to the east. This pulls the back deform band across Eastern TN instead of dryslotting. Similar to some EURO solutions recently. The problem is this robs Western areas of the deform band pivot. So while Eastern TN is better off with more qpf the western portions are much drier. Major outlier for now. Just when I’m about to throw in the towel, the RGEM reels me back in 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I prefer binary options over snow amounts. I'll take the snow day bet. 50 minutes ago, anonymous1968 said: Alright, I am kind of a lurker on here because I am a teacher in Sullivan County and have a vested interest in snow. Sullivan is a big county that has a ton of different elevations and also has Kingsport (which we all know is where snow goes to die). Let's put this in these terms, does this produce enough and stick around enough to get us a day off on Tuesday? If the TROWAL passes over NE Tenn the system could recover well after a dismal start. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 They just started brining the roads on highway 27. It's over. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 With as fickle as this system is I wouldn't throw the towel just yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Knoxville north is still in the game East Tenn. Trend is not ideal this morning, but the end of the storm is still 48+ hours out. We need an O/U pool on the TROWAL. North or South of I-40 and I-81? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The problem with these systems is that a 50 mile shift in a synoptic feature can mean a big change somewhere. It's not unheard of for a change to happen that isn't modeled (such as the positions of ULL or MSLP, or speed). It's those kinds of changes that have robbed us in the past - and have also led to unexpected surprises. The MRX jinx is real too. I'm hoping for one of those to happen to get enough snow to sled in East Knoxville. I'm not building up my kids' hopes though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, nrgjeff said: Knoxville north is still in the game East Tenn. Trend is not ideal this morning, but the end of the storm is still 48+ hours out. We need an O/U pool on the TROWAL. North or South of I-81? Looking at the cross sectionals, I would rather be at Lovell than Tys, as hard as that is to believe lol. Column needs alot less help at your place 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: This shows how close the valley is...temp cross sectional on the low levels at TYS (from 3k NAM pretty much same across all modeling). Finger of death for snow fans..but wouldn't take much to go either way. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Since you're on here right now @nrgjeff, I have a question. What is the best way to look for a TROWAL on the models. Obviously the models have problems resolving things like that, but is there a way to see some of the features like looking just NW of a low at a given pressure level? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I'm just going to guess here, but looks like Chatty gets TROWAL'd on the 12z GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Cross sectional from 12z RGEM...Lovell vs TYS (all models showing southern valley needs less help). My question is, "Is the problem more of a downslope issue vs a true 850 warm nose surging up the valley?" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Yes @Holston_River_Rambler I'm in and out frequently. Re your reply to me @TellicoWx it could be so if that TROWAL is correct. Truest sense of a TROWAL is warm air advection at 850/700 mb from the North instead of the usual Southeast. It's definitely there on the 12Z GFS and why it gets KCHA. If in a hurry one can look for the 700 mb vort max south. Whether or not it's a true TROWAL or standard comma head, it's good news. TROWAL is nice because it's a bonus. Where some systems cut off in CAA, the meso-scale eeks out WAA from the north. PS wow that's a bitter pill for Kingsport. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Yes @Holston_River_Rambler I'm in and out frequently. Truest sense of a TROWAL is warm air advection at 850/700 mb from the North instead of the usual Southeast. It's definitely there on the 12Z GFS and why it gets KCHA. If in a hurry one can look for the 700 mb vort max south. Whether or not it's a true TROWAL or standard comma head, it's good news. TWOWAL is nice because it's a bonus. Where some systems cut off in CAA, the meso-scale eeks out WAA from the north. PS wow that's a bitter pill for Kingsport! IDK, man. That looked like a good run for us, doubled 6z for MBY. LOL. I think that run had all of TRI at 5" or higher. Looks to me like the comma head still got us....just snows forever after the storm leaves. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 You're right @Carvers Gap I was comparing with 00Z. The 06Z was dreadful. Pattern recognition says TRI does fine back side. JC might do better than Kingsport but you know more about the micros up there. I was also in a hurry. MRX proper is the dreadful snow hole those runs. It's all meso-scale crap 48 hours out anyway. In a perfect world that comma head goes KCHA KTYS KTRI but that's a big ask, and without other micro-debacles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Cross sectional from 12z RGEM...Lovell vs TYS (all models showing southern valley needs less help). My question is, "Is the problem more of a downslope issue vs a true 850 warm nose surging up the valley?"CAD from upstate SC and NE Georgia trying to filter into SE Tennessee? Seen this happen before. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, PowellVolz said: CAD from upstate SC and NE Georgia is trying to filter into SE Tennessee. Seen this happen before. . Yep. I've had a pretty significant ice storm that only affected the extreme southern portion of the metro area. I think it was on Christmas 10-12 year ago. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Why can’t we just get a classic snowstorm like the 70s, 80s, and 90s…… I mean one can dream! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS packs on an additional 24hrs of NW flow. Stacks up additional 6" across mountains. Thanks to the kicker energy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 It's frequent in spring to kill off severe wx chances via too stable. 8 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: CAD from upstate SC and NE Georgia trying to filter into SE Tennessee? Seen this happen before. I can't recall it in winter, but I only have a cynical short-term memory. Key is to get help above the surface too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 hmmm cmc... no transfer like RGEM. They are related so no surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathertree2 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: GFS packs on an additional 24hrs of NW flow. Stacks up additional 6" across mountains. Thanks to the kicker energy The whole system seems disjointed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, Weathertree2 said: The whole system seems disjointed Yeah it is all in that transfer. You can see how much more solid of a precip shield the CMC has vs GFS. all because of the transfer. We are losing Western TN with this type of setup though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 One of the biggest issues in the grand scheme is not getting the truly cold Canadian air down here that's been hanging out and mainly being shunted b4 getting to our Latt. Many of us can remember systems that tracked in a similar fashion as this one that we all still received a decent snowfall, due to much colder air involved ; in place as well as backside caa. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now