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Jan 16-17th Boom or Bust


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2 hours ago, John1122 said:

The NAM doesn't cut the Apps this time, it transfers from East Central Alabama to South Carolina. Still downslopes the east and warm nose battlezone is around 40. It just crushes the Plateau and westward. It NAMs the Plateau into oblivion. 24 inches in NW Cumberland. 18+ widespread over the Plateau and Anderson and Union Co. It just pounds snow for 20 hours. It's the second biggest NAMming I've ever seen for mby. Legendary run for all but the far Eastern areas but still a significant winter storm there. Massive .4 to .6 ice totals from Northern Blount county up the apps to Mountain City.  Some areas of the mid-state get .3 ice and 10 inches or more of snow that run. If it verified, snow would be on the ground well into February in the big hit areas and possibly in most of the area with the coming cold.

aigUUN.png

 

 

I like it when the orange colors start to show up. 

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Is there any reason for us to think this won't make another major shift between now and Sunday morning?  Maybe since the second part us now on shore it is more locked in as far as track?

 

Just curious since on Wednesday the heaviest axis of snow (besides NC) seemed concentrated on Western Kentucky. But now in the latest models they are only squeezing out a couple of inches there. Right now Tennessee is in a good spot but it feels like this storm has been 48 hours out for about 3 days now lol.

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9 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

Is there any reason for us to think this won't make another major shift between now and Sunday morning?  Maybe since the second part us now on shore it is more locked in?

I think the basic idea is pretty locked in. The main vort is entering the US and it looks to me like it is head basically where most models think (Arklatex region):

J3pRKWy.png

 

giphy.gif?cid=790b761162c6c0f728732a6f2f

 

I think there could still be some minor changes in the grand scheme, but most people's locations in this forum area are very sensitive to even minor changes. For me, the biggest question right now is, how far south does it dig? If we can get it to get as far south as the HRRR I posted above, that is a good sign. Hopefully that makes it harder for the 850 low to gain latitude and it will round the base of the Apps instead of running up into the eastern valley. 

 

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17 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I don't know if what I'm about to say is how this works, but it looks like there is a weakness in the windfields that the 850 low is getting pulled toward:

73CyYys.png

 

giphy.gif?cid=790b76115933b94034bbb66109

that seems to be what is encouraging it to pull north.

I thought it looked that way also.  I mentioned the interaction with the energy diving in behind yesterday and thought it was the problem in pulling the 850, or a piece of it, further north into the valley.  It really hurts not having a strong anchored high sprawled from northern Missouri to the Mid Atlantic.

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It’s really depressing to see virtually the whole state modeled for a major winter storm except the valley where it’s basically showing a heavy frost.  This is more for the banter thread, but I’m hoping airing our grievances will change our luck like it did for Nashville.  I remember those posters several years ago moaning all the time about the snow hole there.  Now, their weather is resembling Snowshoe, WV...lol!  The snow curse needs to be lifted for the Valley!

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3 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

It’s really depressing to see virtually the whole state modeled for a major winter storm except the valley where it’s basically showing a heavy frost.  This is more for the banter thread, but I’m hoping airing our grievances will change our luck like it did for Nashville.  I remember those posters several years ago moaning all the time about the snow hole there.  Now, their weather is resembling Snowshoe, WV...lol!  The snow curse needs to be lifted for the Valley!

I feel for you; I can say I have allot less experience than most on here but it just seems like this one vs  the last one has a higher  bust potential. 

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2 minutes ago, Weathertree2 said:

I feel for you; I can say I have allot less experience than most on here but it just seems like this one vs  the last one has a higher  bust potential. 

Anytime there is a handoff, primary to secondary and a funky 850 evolution, you can almost bank on busts (both good and bad), IMO.

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5 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said:

Yeah i'm not throwing in the towel just yet.  Seen too many times models readjust 12-24hrs prior and with a system like this, minor adjustments can lead to some interesting changes.

I  know if Middle TN gets it again, we will be well on the way to one of the snowiest seasons of the last several years, really reminds me of the winters of my childhood - 1970's 

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24 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

It’s really depressing to see virtually the whole state modeled for a major winter storm except the valley where it’s basically showing a heavy frost.  This is more for the banter thread, but I’m hoping airing our grievances will change our luck like it did for Nashville.  I remember those posters several years ago moaning all the time about the snow hole there.  Now, their weather is resembling Snowshoe, WV...lol!  The snow curse needs to be lifted for the Valley!

We sacrificed a lot of bachelorettes to the snow gods. Like a lot.

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I generally agree with MRX thinking. Valley has MAJOR boundary layer issues Sunday morning. However the comma head / trowal lurks Sunday afternoon.

If the main storm track was not difficult enough, that last feature is meso-scale. It could rescue Chattanooga from the snow drought iff it tracks far enough south. However model consensus is no again for Chatty - just north.

Western and Middle Tenn look more straight fwd on the main storm track. Middle Tenn now looks to avoid heart breaking boundary layer temps. East winds off the Plateau not enough downslope to crush dreams. 

Kentucky is going to do very well here. Almost as exciting as the UK Louisville games!

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Alright, I am kind of a lurker on here because I am a teacher in Sullivan County and have a vested interest in snow. Sullivan is a big county that has a ton of different elevations and also has Kingsport (which we all know is where snow goes to die). Let's put this in these terms, does this produce enough and stick around enough to get us a day off on Tuesday?

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9 minutes ago, anonymous1968 said:

Alright, I am kind of a lurker on here because I am a teacher in Sullivan County and have a vested interest in snow. Sullivan is a big county that has a ton of different elevations and also has Kingsport (which we all know is where snow goes to die). Let's put this in these terms, does this produce enough and stick around enough to get us a day off on Tuesday?

I don't think anyone will be able to say with any certainty until tomorrow mid day. And we may not even know then.

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13 minutes ago, anonymous1968 said:

Alright, I am kind of a lurker on here because I am a teacher in Sullivan County and have a vested interest in snow. Sullivan is a big county that has a ton of different elevations and also has Kingsport (which we all know is where snow goes to die). Let's put this in these terms, does this produce enough and stick around enough to get us a day off on Tuesday?

At this point it is highly unlikely. Looking like about the same amount of snow we saw last week. 

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