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Jan 16-17th Boom or Bust


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So basically you have every model (NAM, RGEM, EURO, CMC, UKIE, NOGAPS, Santa's 1K Experimental) all showing an 850 centers directly over or within 25 miles of BHam @78...then Goofy up on the TN/AL border...thats a pretty good consensus. What happens after 78 is debatable.

Gonna be a close call for the valley


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28 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


Seems like someone thought there could be better blocking to the north with a faster system. Maybe a faster system would help the high pressure over the top stay further west?


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True.  Was that you?  If so, that is money.  The slower version was allowing the storm to dig over LA/MS, and it pushed north.  Faster version just rolls until it transfers to the FL Panhandle and the NE she goes.

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12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

@tnweathernut's rule of thumb.  Set the bar low and you will not be disappointed.  I almost always subscribe to this when it comes to snowstorms at this latitude.  LOL.

It makes it easier that a lot of middle Tennessee folks just got a huge snow. That said it would be a vary rare event if the area gets another 6+ inch snow event in the same year let alone the same month. I really really want this one to pan out just due to the historical nature of it. If it does work out and with the pattern coming up middle Tennessee would be on the way to one of the snowiest winters it’s had in a long time. It does seem the Nashville snow hole is taking a beating over the last 7 years or so. Since 2015 White House has had 5 winters out of 7 that have had at least one 3 plus inch snowstorm.

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1 hour ago, Shocker0 said:

February 20, 2015? Worst ice storm in Cumberland County history if so. I believe Kentucky got snow in that one though so maybe not. But places east of us also got snow that typically wouldn't have, especially when Crossville had freezing rain.

about .30 of ice Feb 20th-21th on top of about 7-8 inches of snow that had fell a couple days earlier if I remember correctly.  https://www.weather.gov/jkl/20150221_stormsummary

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2 minutes ago, Olhausen said:

It makes it easier that a lot of middle Tennessee folks just got a huge snow. That said it would be a vary rare event if the area gets another 6+ inch snow event in the same year let alone the same month. I really really want this one to pan out just due to the historical nature of it. If it does work out and with the pattern coming up middle Tennessee would be on the way to one of the snowiest winters it’s had in a long time. It does seem the Nashville snow hole is taking a beating over the last 7 years or so. Since 2015 White House has had 5 winters out of 7 that have had at least one 3 plus inch snowstorm.

Yes, would be nice to see this one pan out for sure

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6 minutes ago, Kentucky said:

about .30 of ice Feb 20th-21th on top of about 7-8 inches of snow that had fell a couple days earlier if I remember correctly.  https://www.weather.gov/jkl/20150221_stormsummary

Ah ok. I think on the Plateau where I live, we didn't get anything from that storm. But we did have snow on the 16th and/or 17th that started out as heavy snow before going to sleet, and then plain old rain.

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True.  Was that you?  If so, that is money.  The slower version was allowing the storm to dig over LA/MS, and it pushed north.  Faster version just rolls until it transfers to the FL Panhandle and the NE she goes.

True.  Was that you?  If so, that is money.  The slower version was allowing the storm to dig over LA/MS, and it pushed north.  Faster version just rolls until it transfers to the FL Panhandle and the NE she goes.

No not me. Might have been Tellico but I remember it was thrown out there a few days ago


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4 minutes ago, McMinnWx said:

I want to believe...

Same, but still not convinced for the valley. I do believe that we could see some snow. Just not convinced on the larger totals.  Temps are trending in the right direction. 

I think when the NAM gets in range we will have a better look at potential downsloping, warm nose, and etc for the valley. It did pretty great with the last storm about 48 hours before. It seemed to have the sharp cutoff above 40 in Knox accurately depicted. The RGEM for example did not show this feature, and instead pasted Knox county with 4 or 5 inch totals even while the storm was ongoing. NAM did excellent in comparison. 

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1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

Still a slight risk of an energy transfer debacle Great Valley, but it's lessening. Having the 500/700 mb vort maxes south is a nice change!

Looks like 850 and 700 (gotta watch that crap too) are colder. Time to dig up the TROWAL graphic too. Classic!

Jeff said it’s game on

image.jpeg.1d23ea0b8057689ccbc82a195bfee259.jpeg

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One of the cool things about the Euro run is that a little system drops in right behind it as it is departing.  That is old school stuff that happened when I was younger.  We would sometimes get big storms, but we would have light snow for ~12-24hrs after. 

EPS low locations.  You can see the trends. New is left.  I used 0z on the right to show how much it had changed.   Looks like fewer slower solutions and definitely a trend to send fewer lows to the TN tri-state border with MS/AL.  Still a few lows in e TN, but overall placement is along the coast.  The quicker that inland slp gets going (meaning the further SE it pops), the more precip comes back this way.

Screen_Shot_2022-01-13_at_2.11.14_PM.png

 

This is the EPS comparison of 12z and 6z....You can see the trend for great snowfall in middle TN.  Very consistent look though.  Just want to dial this in now. 

Screen_Shot_2022-01-13_at_2.09.47_PM.png

This is the GEFS slp placement comparison earlier in its run(than when compared to the Euro above).  Notice the cluster of lows near the TN border is substantially smaller.

Screen_Shot_2022-01-13_at_2.13.29_PM.png

 

 

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Not touching this one yet. I've been hurt before. Recently.
Same here man, last 2 storms were let downs not to mention really for MBY haven't had a snow more than an inch in a few years. Have had a couple 1" storms but not a good storm in some time.

Though on the other side of that coin all snow droughts eventually break, look at Nashville! They were in a snow dome for a long time and have reaped major rewards for their patience.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk



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1 minute ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Same here man, last 2 storms were let downs not to mention really for MBY haven't had a snow more than an inch in a few years. Have had a couple 1" storms but not a good storm in some time.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

I concur sir! 

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5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Biggest change for me through hour 42 is how the vort looks. The more circular one is the 18z, the other is 12z:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611e2552614a0420e8c83

It is amped for sure.  Probably not as great an outcome on this run.  It is the NAM at range, but it also hasn't dug as much, so it might not cut.  Just need to rock that baby like a pendulum and let it scoot up the coast.

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