TellicoWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12z CMC was very close to following the NAM...has the 850 over Birmingham @78, then unexplainably jumps it dur north @84 to the TN/KY border...an almost 90° turn in track 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, Icy Hot said: I second that. Tired of Sullivan Co getting screwed. lol Downlsoping could be a problem east of I-81. I think west 81, it would be less of an issue. Now, when it pass through initially, downslope could be a problem. SE return flow the west side of 81 benefits most of the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 My money is on what CMC is showing here. Snow everywhere but the valley with that warm nose. I'll be happy with my 1-2 slushy accumulation and enjoy everyone else's pictures. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12z GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 To me the track is fairly consistent now. What is unknown is how much of a handoff will occur, ie how much of the remnant original low sneaks west of the Apps. Models differ greatly. In general, we have seen modeling trend well south today. Now that the track seems almost consolidated, let's see what happens. Modeling may stay with the same look or it may strengthen the slp in the coastal plain as the upstream unknown variables are solved. Definitely could bust, but a good run of the GFS for most of the state. If the Euro holds at 12z, that is a good look. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Wurbus said: My money is on what CMC is showing here. Snow everywhere but the valley with that warm nose. I'll be happy with my 1-2 slushy accumulation and enjoy everyone else's pictures. It could, but that low placement is well west of other guidance. That is definitely a downlsope. But it is important to remember that modeling is just now dialing this in. If that low were to deepen, that precip makes it across the mountains. Also, people west of 81 and 75 would likely be in the game. I rarely get downsloped here from a SE wind. It is a legit concern in the foothills unless the slp strengthens. I get downsloped when the system approaches from the west of Kingsport. With models moving around so much, doubt they are done. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 There is .0001% chance of the CMC playing out that way between 78 & 84...unless a magic brick wall forms lol 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 UKMet snow totals below. No love for middle/west TN 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 You can see the increase in snowfall from 6z to 12z for the GEFS. That is quite the storm if it verifies. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 We only like the UKMET when it affirms what we want to believe. Otherwise we toss. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Wurbus said: UKMet snow totals below. No love for middle/west TN UK has been remarkably consistent showing a strong cutoff. No clue if it's onto something or just on something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 If you want sanity...turn on the 850 wind field maps and follow the swirl...dont need any other map on model runs...north/northwest of the swirl...golden. over the top of you/east/south...move on to the next run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: We only like the UKMET when it affirms what we want to believe. Otherwise we toss. Ukie is trash lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, TellicoWx said: If you want sanity...turn on the 850 wind field maps and follow the swirl...dont need any other map on model runs...north/northwest of the swirl...golden. over the top of you/east/south...move on to the next run Good post. I do this often and IMO it's probably the most important feature to key on if you want to find where snow is likely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I could be wrong(happens a lot), but just spitballing.....looks like modeling are converging on an inland runner. Once they converge on that track, all eyes turn to intensity and handoff. For those of us in the East, we probably should be thankful we can even talk about this today. Because yesterday's look and trends were hot garbage for us. LOL. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Wurbus said: UKMet snow totals below. No love for middle/west TN Sevier County snowhole happens and I am quitting this hobby. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This is one apparent tough testing for the Models as well as Forecasters. I will say, last Winter nearly all SR Models had us here in Lee County the recipient of DS and very little snow with pretty much all events, other than the Christmas one of which DS wasn't in play. We totalled nearly 30" for the Season. I think I came up with around 9" if the Mods had been right based on the SR runs right b4 onset of the Snow. I think low onset dp's and rates had alot to do with it as have witnessed the other extreme i.e, Jan.- 23-16 Storm of which a mix that transitioned to snow with just a 4 inch amount occured with some areas close by receiving much more. Ds off High Knob was culprit. Carvers earlier points regarding who gets what and how much based on what is on the money I think. If that makes sense,lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, Wurbus said: UKMet snow totals below. No love for middle/west TN I’ll take that 4.1 inches and call it a day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12z GEFSThat ticked back up a little north of 40 right?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, John1122 said: There was a system in the last few years where it snowed here and was freezing rain in Kentucky. The warm nose ran-up the west side of the Plateau and wrapped into Kentucky. It's in one of the winter storm threads here. Can't remember which right now. But that made some sense from a topographical standpoint. The NAM had freezing rain across the Northern Plateau on the NW side of the storm with snow on the central Plateau and points south. February 20, 2015? Worst ice storm in Cumberland County history if so. I believe Kentucky got snow in that one though so maybe not. But places east of us also got snow that typically wouldn't have, especially when Crossville had freezing rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The next person that says North of 40 lol 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: That ticked back up a little north of 40 right? . Yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This system radiates a repositioned 2/28-3/1/09 type system. That storm was a bad dream for the metro areas of middle Tennessee. Got screwed on the pivot. Delaying excitement until WPC odds increase considerably. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 I just don't want a WSW for Knox county issued from MRX. If that happens, 99% chance we aren't getting Winter storm warning totals. If they decide to go with a special weather statement or WWA, decent chance it over performs in Knox. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I’m still trying to understand where the cold air is going to come from. It doesn’t have to be crazy cold but I’d at least like to see a cold source somewhere other than the top down. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, Shocker0 said: February 20, 2015? Worst ice storm in Cumberland County history if so. I believe Kentucky got snow in that one though so maybe not. But places east of us also got snow that typically wouldn't have, especially when Crossville had freezing rain. This one is more recent than that one if I recall correctly. It may have even happened last winter. Kentucky reported he was getting freezing rain 20 or 25 miles north of me while I was getting snow. It's very rare but it happened in that case. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This one is more recent than that one if I recall correctly. It may have even happened last winter. Kentucky reported he was getting freezing rain 20 or 25 miles north of me while I was getting snow. It's very rare but it happened in that case.Is that the storm where WAA was supposed to takeover the valley but it hugged the foothills and south of 40? I was supposed to go snow/rain/snow for a couple of inches but it stayed all snow and I ended up with 6-8” I believe. I might be thinking of a different storm though. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: @AMZ8990 is the 6z RGEM winner: 6z GFS seemed to take a really nice energy pass: and we get a 999 low just south of Atlanta, but the 850 low still makes a run at the eastern valley. However, the 850 low has been trending SE the past 4 runs: if we could get that 850 low to round the Apps, that would be nice. But as it stands this AM, on the GFS at least, that is ne Bueno for areas that would get downsloping from the Apps and be impacted by a piece of the low trying to slide up the eastern valley. 6z GEFS looks like it tries to have a few members be straight up Miller As, but the majority are still these Miller B messes: but like Tellico said last night, those members don't quite get the precip back over the Apps. 6z NAM looks like it is a little further south than the GFS, but still sends some energy up the valley. Appreciate that, buddy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: This one is more recent than that one if I recall correctly. It may have even happened last winter. Kentucky reported he was getting freezing rain 20 or 25 miles north of me while I was getting snow. It's very rare but it happened in that case. Oh ok. I don't really remember any ice storms here the last couple of years so maybe we got snow too or something else while other parts of town got ice. Really, the one in 2015 is the last one I can remember here but it also stood out because of how bad it was. We had two ice storms in the same week then with the second one on Saturday making it look like a tornado hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Oh ok. I don't really remember any ice storms here the last couple of years so maybe we got snow too or something else while other parts of town got ice. Really, the one in 2015 is the last one I can remember here but it also stood out because of how bad it was. We had two ice storms in the same week then with the second one on Saturday making it look like a tornado hit.Yes that one in 15 was really bad in my neck of the woods also. That year if I remember all in the month of February imby we got 2 ice storms and a 10" snow all within a couple week period.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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