Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1002 mb low over Pensacola at hour 72. That would be a straight up Miller A. woot woot! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 That NAM run is coming in so far south, it actually is bringing Chattanooga into play and whiffing above I40. Now let's see if it makes the turn or slides OTS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 1002 mb low over Pensacola at hour 72. That would be a straight up Miller A. woot woot! I would take my chances on whatever this run spits out verbatim and call it a winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 It's making the turn and looks like it will rake E TN. A solid NAMing! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 That is a HUGE move by the NAM. Looks like a Miller A if it doesn't slide off. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 13.4 inches for Chattanooga?! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, McMinnWx said: 13.4 inches for Chattanooga?! Jeff says toss in 3, 2, 1………. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Only issue is that is a weak, weak system being portrayed - speaking of mb. The downslope in E TN would be a big problem unless it starts to spin-up a bit better. Need rates to overcome the downslope. Chattanooga peeps say, "Bring me the NAM!!!" LOL 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 And turn out the lights in the rest of the Valley - major ice storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Beautiful: It shows some mixing issues, but the soundings are mighty close to being all snow: Here's one over the Pellissippi area: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 So this has trend so much south since last night that the risk is a whiff to the south. LOL. The GFS is either about to score a coup or has a big problem with old school NAM type amping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Jeff says toss in 3, 2, 1………. He can't get in board until go time. He said it himself a storm or two ago. The jinx would come into play. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I'm curious as to how it is showing an ice storm for central and N. east TN with that track. Is it downsloping the midlevels, but locking low level cold air in? I hate ice, but meteorologically that would be something to see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Can anyone name a storm that dropped a foot on Chattanooga that went ice from Knoxville to Johnson City? I’m not sure one exists……. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 ^ This TBH ^ About the only thing I have confidence in with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Isn’t NAM notorious for thermal profile issues? The big takeaway for me is the Miller A look. I’d have to think that Low position and potential track would yield good results in East TN 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12z gfs looks good for snow statewide. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: And turn out the lights in the rest of the Valley - major ice storm. Just say no to ICE kids! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, tnweathernut said: Can anyone name a storm that dropped a foot on Chattanooga that went ice from Knoxville to Johnson City? I’m not sure one exists……. The NAM showed heavy rain over Tazewell, the snowiest city in the state with an observation station, and heavy snow over the southern valley. I'm not for sure how that would work. But I'll certainly take my chances with it's track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 There was a system in the last few years where it snowed here and was freezing rain in Kentucky. The warm nose ran-up the west side of the Plateau and wrapped into Kentucky. It's in one of the winter storm threads here. Can't remember which right now. But that made some sense from a topographical standpoint. The NAM had freezing rain across the Northern Plateau on the NW side of the storm with snow on the central Plateau and points south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The 12z GFS was just a massive snowstorm for TN. Surprised nobody has posted the maps. The GFS cave is almost complete....The Euro, if it holds and its track verifies, it retakes king of the hill status. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Looks very much like the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Looks very much like the Euro. I think you posted 2 GFS runs bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The NAM showed heavy rain over Tazewell, the snowiest city in the state with an observation station, and heavy snow over the southern valley. I'm not for sure how that would work. But I'll certainly take my chances with it's track. Southern Valley closer to better dynamic cooling?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuCoVaWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Looks very much like the Euro. This should check out considering the snow hole over top of me. Surrounded by high accumulations all around lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Southern Valley closer to better dynamic cooling? . Dynamic cooling is generally rate based/top down cooling. It showed very heavy precip falling there but as rain. I don't recall seeing many NW quadrants fall as rain while the southern portion falls as snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, BuCoVaWx said: This should check out considering the snow hole over top of me. Surrounded by high accumulations all around lol I second that. Tired of Sullivan Co getting screwed. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastTNWeatherAdmirer Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Like some were thinking the NAM may not check out with the thermodynamic profile for the NE TN valley but here is the ice map for those interested... What seems more likely and will probably make the ''weather disaster news headlines'' is .5''-1'' of solid ice over GA and SC urban centers like Atlanta if the cold air is robust enough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 If you put the 850 position of the NAM in GFS spot..Chattanooga would get nailed. NAM tries to run the LLJ out ahead, up and over the Apps..that leads to the wonky solution northern valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 21 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said: I think you posted 2 GFS runs bud. Yep. So you can compare the trend from 6z to 12z. Generally what I do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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