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MLK 2022 Storm Potential


stormtracker
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Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Southern Fauquier-
Eastern Loudoun-
1230 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3
  inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch.
  Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...The District of Columbia, portions of central, north
  central and northern Maryland and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

 

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/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0003.220116T1800Z-220117T1200Z/
/O.EXA.KLWX.WS.W.0003.220116T1800Z-220117T1200Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
1230 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow changing to ice. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4
  inches and ice accumulations of one tenth to three tenths of an
  inch.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Washington and Frederick MD Counties. In
  Virginia, Northern Fauquier and Western Loudoun Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow could fall at 1 to 3 inches per hour
  for a time late Sunday into Sunday evening, making roads nearly
  impassable for a time.
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32 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Talked to the realtor, I'm setting up to look at that property next week if conditions allow. The G Wagon is getting serviced so I'd have to drive my old WRX and am not sure how good the roads are.  

Not sure your price range but theres a lake front place two doors down from me on the market for 1.8M. Garrett county roads are usually clear right after the snow ends, even the side streets.

 

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Just now, mdhokie said:

Not sure your price range but theres a lake front place two doors down from me on the market for 1.8M.

Saw that one, we are staying a place very similar to it which I saw is priced at 1.65

Wish I would’ve gotten a spot 2 years ago, even a little cabin. Woulda been a nice source of residual income. 

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13 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Why does everybody hate DT?   I remember some posts from a year or two back where he was going crazy and having a meltdown or something and he seems to be good at lashing out and blaming others for his own shortcomings.  But other than that is he ok?

He’s blaming the NWS for his failure. That is unacceptable, everyone knew his forecast was stupid and to save face he is blaming them. How is he not a loser?

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The aspect of this storm that bothers me the most at least from my perception is how poorly the EPS and GEFS did in the Day 4-5 range which should be their wheelhouse unless I am mistaken.
They did fine. Track has been locked in...they just cant sense the detail of mid level warmth that far out
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7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

The aspect of this storm that bothers me the most at least from my perception is how poorly the EPS and GEFS did in the Day 4-5 range which should be their wheelhouse unless I am mistaken.

Did is past tense. Glad you’re not a coroner. People be declared dead while they’re still walking around

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12 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

Not sure your price range but theres a lake front place two doors down from me on the market for 1.8M. Garrett county roads are usually clear right after the snow ends, even the side streets.

 

Gotta love DC money, DCL really stumbled into a gold mine with that.  I'm looking just for land as we will build the cabin separately.  

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11 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

He’s blaming the NWS for his failure. That is unacceptable, everyone knew his forecast was stupid and to save face he is blaming them. How is he not a loser?

Maybe he is a loser, I honestly don't know other than what I read on this board.  He seems obnoxious at the least.  

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Just now, IronTy said:

Maybe he is a loser, I honestly don't know other than what I read on this board.  He seems obnoxious at the least.  

I can echo the sentiments of the other members on the board, not only a loser but also just a huge jerk most of the time. That’s aside from the fact that he’s a pretty lousy forecaster

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

The euro just turned a Miller A into a Miller B and back into a Miller A. Takes the low from Charleston to Snowshoe in 6 hours and on to Dulles airport 6 hours later. And increased my now total 3 inches. Go euro :lol:

Yeah…really gives you confidence right?

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

The euro just turned a Miller A into a Miller B and back into a Miller A. Takes the low from Charleston to Snowshoe in 6 hours and on to Dulles airport 6 hours later. And increased my now total 3 inches. Go euro :lol:

We actually would probably do better if there was a primary driving up into Southwest Virginia, as it wouldn’t push the highway out as quickly and would enable the CAD to hang on a bit longer

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Just now, DDweatherman said:

We actually would probably do better if there was a primary driving up into Southwest Virginia, as it wouldn’t push the highway out as quickly and would enable the CAD to hang on a bit longer

Was thinking exactly the same thing. Keep that ocean air at bay a little while longer

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15 minutes ago, Ji said:
20 minutes ago, Weather Will said:
The aspect of this storm that bothers me the most at least from my perception is how poorly the EPS and GEFS did in the Day 4-5 range which should be their wheelhouse unless I am mistaken.

They did fine. Track has been locked in...they just cant sense the detail of mid level warmth that far out

I don’t think so Ji.  The mean tracks and most low positions were much further SE.

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All-model weighted consensus low track is approx RIC to DCA to ABE, rapid deepening. 

Think it plays out as 3-6 hour heavy snow front end thump followed by sleet and possible large ice pellet with thunder around 09z in metros, wrap around snow quickly follows. Scour out of cold air is not very complete south of York PA due to rapid development and inland penetration of warm nose mostly north of the Delaware, even there surface residency time of milder air very brief. Partial coastal energy transfer 12-15z pushes occlusion rapidly north across LI, s NE.

Think it could result in a better snow outcome than the NWS forecast by almost 2:1 ratio, as that early stage will crank and another 1-2" possible from the wraparound. Note that DC is right under the 500 mb low by 12z Monday. Column is implied to be non-vertical, with 700 mb low displaced to west of 500 mb and southwest of surface low. Seen from above the cylinder looks like the letter C with the upper portion closest to the surface. 

Such a dynamic evolution, bound to be some thundersnow and thundersleet involved. Don't think temps come up as much as some fear, will do so in NJ-ePA more so. Strongest winds probably follow the warm nose and trailing front, may not be that big a factor in DC or even BAL as a result, perhaps strongest by Mon afternoon in downsloping WNW. 

Think some will be saying "got more snow than expected" by Monday mid-day, although by how much, perhaps not that much, maybe add 1-2" to expectations. 

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45 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

NWS bullish for the mountains, 6-12" through sun night with more on Monday in Garrett.

Really bullish.  Going all in on 12-18” for Garrett County through Monday night.  Lines up well with the latest Euro which is ~18” by Tuesday day break.  The WAA could surprise if we can score some good banding and keep the 700-850 levels colder.  But I still think bulk of the snow is actually overnight Sunday/Monday into Monday night.

Fun few days coming up!

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