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MLK 2022 Storm Potential


stormtracker
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2 minutes ago, Kleimax said:

image.thumb.png.1091af133a43f01c0a77546035e3958d.pngSame time Monday on TT 

I suppose it ultimately doesn't seem to matter -- you can see it's having difficulty resolving the exact placement of the low. As others have noted, this outcome seems pretty locked regardless of exactly where the model decides the SLP is. It's looked like this for 2 days straight in one form or another.

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5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Despite all of the little changes across all the models, we just keep coming up with the same thing.  Front end thump to rain for DC.  It has looked like this for days and I really doubt it is going to change now.

I'm starting to feel the same.  I'm trying to keep huffing the hope-ium, but I'm getting diminishing returns at this point.   Still time for changes, just not sure the we can get the huge changes we need.   My best case now is for a significant thump, dryslot.  The stingy ass I-81 western crew still look good tho.

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I'm starting to feel the same.  I'm trying to keep huffing the hope-ium, but I'm getting diminishing returns at this point.   Still time for changes, just not sure the we can get the huge changes we need.   My best case now is for a significant thump, dryslot.  The stingy ass I-81 western crew still look good tho.

One good change has been the elimination of the "torch" scenario with temps >45 for a period.  Monday also looks cooler again, but still mid-30s.

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I'm starting to feel the same.  I'm trying to keep huffing the hope-ium, but I'm getting diminishing returns at this point.   Still time for changes, just not sure the we can get the huge changes we need.   My best case now is for a significant thump, dryslot.  The stingy ass I-81 western crew still look good tho.

Never did feel great about this one...I knew this one was gonna be messy...had that feeling from Monday. That's why I've been more focused to see what else pops up on the LR after this, lol That being said...as others have echoed, thump to dry slot ain't a bad consolation prize...Hope we can spin the wheel again soon!

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8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So frustrating.  Things start out promising, but end the same way.  Nice little thump at 84.  Cake is starting to cool and set.

 

5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Despite all of the little changes across all the models, we just keep coming up with the same thing.  Front end thump to rain for DC.  It has looked like this for days and I really doubt it is going to change now.

We've gotten a small, but noticeable shift east/south, but it's still well short of putting the metro corridor in the CCB/deform band.  So the sensible weather outcome is not much different.  Probably results actually in slightly less WAA thump, but gives us better odds of limiting rain before  the dry slot.  Also we are getting pretty close to getting a little coating back on top at the end Monday as it pulls away.  

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11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So frustrating.  Things start out promising, but end the same way.  Nice little thump at 84.  Cake is starting to cool and set.

Climo and antecedent airmass pretty much yells standard thump to slot based on all guidance. We don't get many overhead tracks in real time. Anything is always possible of course. Just playing the odds would be a good heavy thump, mix, slot, drip, refreeze. Lol

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7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I suppose it ultimately doesn't seem to matter -- you can see it's having difficulty resolving the exact placement of the low. As others have noted, this outcome seems pretty locked regardless of exactly where the model decides the SLP is. It's looked like this for 2 days straight in one form or another.

That GFS map is just the forecast radar reflectivity and placement of the surface low at that time/

Do the WB maps show the location of the surface low at that hour, while showing the average of the prior 6 hours of QPF?

Can't quite reconcile the difference between the two maps.

Edit: The 6-hour average map on TT looks much the same as the WB one you posted.

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1 minute ago, mattie g said:

That GFS map is just the forecast radar reflectivity and placement of the surface low at that time/

Do the WB maps show the location of the surface low at that hour, while showing the average of the prior 6 hours of QPF?

Can't quite reconcile the difference between the two maps.

you are totally right -- not sure why it leaps to the coast when it becomes a p-type map.

1642399200-li7Bgz6INoM.png

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This GFS track probably is good enough for you to add 1-2" of snow as it pulls away Monday.  Maybe C-1" for me. 

I still think the low won't track that far inland. No reason other than atmospheric memory. And maybe a little weenie thrown in. 

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A stronger 500mb low on the same trajectory would probably work, giving the coastal more of a dominant role, and the NAM was hinting at that outcome. Its later onset time would also mean slightly lower surface temps at p onset. 

There is plenty of time left for trends in the right direction. The actual outcome of the Atlantic storm will play a role, I would only consider the current 48h depictions for that to be moderately reliable. 

Also thinking CHO likely to be all or nearly all snow, the warm intrusion seems more likely to flow into the Potomac and MD than noVA. 

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1 minute ago, Roger Smith said:

A stronger 500mb low on the same trajectory would probably work, giving the coastal more of a dominant role, and the NAM was hinting at that outcome. Its later onset time would also mean slightly lower surface temps at p onset. 

There is plenty of time left for trends in the right direction. The actual outcome of the Atlantic storm will play a role, I would only consider the current 48h depictions for that to be moderately reliable. 

Also thinking CHO likely to be all or nearly all snow, the warm intrusion seems more likely to flow into the Potomac and MD than noVA. 

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