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MLK 2022 Storm Potential


stormtracker
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3 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

You realize TWC isn't in the accuracy business but more in the 'driving traffic' business.  Gotta hype it up at all times!

Yes, they are very misleading. Now the last storm the app said 0-1'' two days before the event and ended up getting 10''.  It's sad people trust TWC for a solid forecast.

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

He probably got them here 

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/

 

7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Holy shit thanks for that.

 

1 minute ago, gymengineer said:

Fun fact for the newer posters: Ray Martin worked at LWX and would post here. After the 2016 Blizzard, he participated in the heated discussions on here about DCA’s snow total for the storm.

Ray still works for LWX. Solid forecaster. His site gets me through those hot winter rain storms.

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

How are things in the se forum?

Going great LOL. I see things are well here too. You have JI being the voice of reason, you have StormTracker having homicidal thoughts about Yoda and the cliffs have miles of jumpers. In all seriousness though, I do believe this will trend a little better for you all in the DC area and vicinity.

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10 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

RGEM is interesting. A good bit faster/further east with the mid level stuff but also much stronger. Cuts off earlier than would be preferred. Not smart enough to extrapolate that out to game time, but my rough guess is not an earth shattering improvement.

NAM is better. Rgem probably ends similar to the euro. NAM was the only look I’ve seen recently that made me think it could possibly get far enough southeast to track up further east. 

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I usually don’t like to do these early model observations since you look stupid when they take a left turn after but at 72 Gfs again trended east with the SW. 2nd run it reversed its early NW trend with that. Also less ridging in front of it. Positive trends there. Slightly less suppressive up over New England but as I’ve said I think that’s not the biggest factor here. Things have changed due to the timing and the energy diving in behind that wasn’t seen before. The trough is going to amplify and sharpen and this is going to pull north. Nothing going on to the northeast will stop that. It’s all about getting this SW as far east as we can before that happens. So the 2 things I’m watching are strength and location/speed of that SW. faster/east/weaker is better. And the interaction of the energy behind. Slower and later phase better there. 

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