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MLK 2022 Storm Potential


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8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Euro seems to be the best case scenario right now. Low end warning snow/sleet then dry for I-95 immediate suburbs, big storm US 15 west.

EDIT: Give it a 50 mile east shift and everybody wind bigly.

I'd say wrap that up now for me, but climo wins out IMBY despite being at 800'. Most likely true dividing line is BR - East of that you mix/rain to varying degrees. West, you get the P word.

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

But holy snow Batman, the surface features across these models at 84 hours are so classic. I think this is gonna be a good thump at the least. If we go mixed or rain so what, it’ll be a glacier a few hours later. 

I'm in a pretty good spot, but you're in a REALLY good spot for this one it appears. Lots of models showing 12-20" numbers over your head. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

But holy snow Batman, the surface features across these models at 84 hours are so classic. I think this is gonna be a good thump at the least. If we go mixed or rain so what, it’ll be a glacier a few hours later. 

highs are now trending warmer post storm...possibly low 40s MLK day and Tuesday. There doesn't seem to be some big post storm discharge of cold air.

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3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Same, I'm about 8 miles west of 15 up in CV. I don't mind it nudging 50 miles east. 

Oh you’re prob in a bit of a better spot than me. My elevation isn’t all that great (around 350’) but it climbs real quick from here. It’s fun using the compass as I drive up to gambrill. I feel like the valley between catoctin and Hagerstown would do pretty well. Either way, looks like a decent cad setup to start for everyone.

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Remember a few days ago when suppression was the biggest fear when slp was tracking through Indianopolis? Always remember history because it repeats. Obviously now it's entirely different but still, I was never once worried about a whiff south when this thing showed up. My concern was no storm at all so that was avoided at least for now. 

I'd be good with a deep closed 500mb low tracking overhead. Rare occurrence so again, it seems "off" but I say bring it. Stormier the better.

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Just now, 87storms said:

Oh you’re prob in a bit of a better spot than me. My elevation isn’t all that great (around 350’) but it climbs real quick from here. It’s fun using the compass as I drive up to gambrill. I feel like the valley between catoctin and Hagerstown would do pretty well. Either way, looks like a decent cad setup to start for everyone.

Yea I can see liberty from my house on the side of the mountain there, sitting at about 900' or so. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

But holy snow Batman, the surface features across these models at 84 hours are so classic. I think this is gonna be a good thump at the least. If we go mixed or rain so what, it’ll be a glacier a few hours later. 

Sweating the rain/snow line is part of the deal with this type of setup, alas. That's why I loved last Monday so much. Didn't have to be glued to a precip-type radar the entire time.

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That front end thump on both the GFS and Euro are something else. This is giving me very 2/2014 vibes right now. That precip will come in like a wall. With the mid-level ascent depicted, 1-2"/hr wouldn't just be a possibility, it would be a certainty. Would certainly be fun to watch come down in the first part of the storm. 

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That front end thump on both the GFS and Euro are something else. This is giving me very 2/2014 vibes right now. That precip will come in like a wall. With the mid-level ascent depicted, 1-2"/hr wouldn't just be a possibility, it would be a certainty. Would certainly be fun to watch come down in the first part of the storm. 

We love when it comes from the S/SW like a total wall. Nothing better, complete mass of yellows and oranges. Always has a chance to overperform too. 

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