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MLK 2022 Storm Potential


stormtracker
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15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm not so sure. One thing most guidance is really hearing on is the deep and strong 925mb SE ripping flow. I suppose a cleaner transfer, weaker sw, and track of the sw under us rather than over the big cities could help keep flow vectors with less of a SE component, but that ll jet is sticking out like a sore thumb. Let's nudge that weaker sw under us and take our chances. 

loll "we" can't do anything and just hoping for different things to happen on a computer model isn't the reality of the situation Ralph come on!! There's a strong consensus here of what's going on and it's clear as day this is NOT a PHL area special. I remember days ago people were like oh no the models are wrong it's so darn cold this has to be snow! No, it's not wrong. The models show what they show because it reflects reality. This forum and the south east forum stands to have some winners. Us foreigners will not cash this one out. Root for our southern brothers.

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Lol this is so close to some classic storms in the 84-102 hour time frame. This could trend really good.

Was just reading some of the info @WVclimosent me on the 96 storm.

Honestly, I have a better feeling about things than I had yesterday.  I mean even with just a 40 mile adjustment east we can do a LOT better.  And that is definitely not far fetched within the next 4 days of model runs. 

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7 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Pretty unusual for the ensembles to have a higher snow output then the operational when focusing in on a particular time frame

 

Keep what @high riskrisk said yesterday in the front of your mind about the gfs op and its respective ens control and suite. They currently do not run on the same physics so even the gefs control really has no good analysis comparison to the gfs op. Basically treat them separately when they diverge 

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9 minutes ago, alexderiemer said:

P14 and a side of fries. Still some really big hits mixed in there for sure. Will be interesting to see how guidance trends today and tomorrow.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 

and still a couple SS's...can't complain about that

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29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'll take the 988mb off Fenwick Island ftmfw Alex, ty

Ah, good old Fenwick. Many family vacations there in the 1950s and '60s. The 2-lane coastal highway was the only paved road (other than the Rt. 54 access of course.) The beach towns were fantastic before the population explosion.

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21 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Lol this is so close to some classic storms in the 84-102 hour time frame. This could trend really good.

Was just reading some of the info @WVclimosent me on the 96 storm.

I think we’re still in the game for a very significant storm but I don’t think this has HECS 20”+ potential for 95.  I don’t think anyone is expecting that. We have a -NAO but not a true block. 95 really does need a classic block usually to get those storms. Also what’s going on across Canada isn’t ideal for those hecs storms. The trough amplifying there will pull this north. To get a hecs we typically want the storm cut off from the NS there and higher pressure over the top. That’s when we get a storm to crawl to off the Delmarva then slide ENE. 
 

This is going to lift north pretty sharply. This will be a storm that runs the coast. Kinda old school, these used to be way more common than recently. And they can be pretty good but not 20” good in DC usually.  The key will be how far southeast we can get the H5 before it gets captured and lifts north and how much resistance the cold can make to get a really nice WAA thump.  Any deform is bonus. The 2014 storm was this type. One of the 1987 storms was and worked out to like 10” in DC. There was a similar storm to this evolution in 66 that was good in DC. There are also examples where this can go wrong if the h5 gets captured too soon. That’s why faster is better. Get it into the southeast before the trough amplified and it lifts.  There were 2 storms in 1994 that remind me of this also.  Early January and one in early March. Those were more ehh with like 2-4 in DC and a lot more west. 

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Honestly, I have a better feeling about things than I had yesterday.  I mean even with just a 40 mile adjustment east we can do a LOT better.  And that is definitely not far fetched within the next 4 days of model runs. 

This has a lot of cold on top and in front of it and that makes it a lot easier to get a better result. Giving up on this now is silly. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think we’re still in the game for a very significant storm but I don’t think this has HECS 20”+ potential for 95.  I don’t think anyone is expecting that. We have a -NAO but not a true block. 95 really does need a classic block usually to get those storms. Also what’s going on across Canada isn’t ideal for those hecs storms. The trough amplifying there will pull this north. To get a hecs we typically want the storm cut off from the NS there and higher pressure over the top. That’s when we get a storm to crawl to off the Delmarva then slide ENE. 
 

This is going to lift north pretty sharply. This will be a storm that runs the coast. Kinda old school, these used to be way more common than recently. And they can be pretty good but not 20” good in DC usually.  The key will be how far southeast we can get the H5 before it gets captured and lifts north and how much resistance the cold can make to get a really nice WAA thump.  Any deform is bonus. The 2014 storm was this type. One of the 1987 storms was and worked out to like 10” in DC. There was a similar storm to this evolution in 66 that was good in DC. There are also examples where this can go wrong if the h5 gets captured too soon. That’s why faster is better. Get it into the southeast before the trough amplified and it lifts.  There were 2 storms in 1994 that remind me of this also.  Early January and one in early March. Those were more ehh with like 2-4 in DC and a lot more west. 

This has a lot of cold on top and in front of it and that makes it a lot easier to get a better result. Giving up on this now is silly. 

Well I’m not predicting historic lol. But I’m not saying it can’t be either. Totally serious here. Many of these models are getting this thing to an absolutely classic spot. What happens after is still very much up in the air.

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think we’re still in the game for a very significant storm but I don’t think this has HECS 20”+ potential for 95.  I don’t think anyone is expecting that. We have a -NAO but not a true block. 95 really does need a classic block usually to get those storms. Also what’s going on across Canada isn’t ideal for those hecs storms. The trough amplifying there will pull this north. To get a hecs we typically want the storm cut off from the NS there and higher pressure over the top. That’s when we get a storm to crawl to off the Delmarva then slide ENE. 
 

This is going to lift north pretty sharply. This will be a storm that runs the coast. Kinda old school, these used to be way more common than recently. And they can be pretty good but not 20” good in DC usually.  The key will be how far southeast we can get the H5 before it gets captured and lifts north and how much resistance the cold can make to get a really nice WAA thump.  Any deform is bonus. The 2014 storm was this type. One of the 1987 storms was and worked out to like 10” in DC. There was a similar storm to this evolution in 66 that was good in DC. There are also examples where this can go wrong if the h5 gets captured too soon. That’s why faster is better. Get it into the southeast before the trough amplified and it lifts.  There were 2 storms in 1994 that remind me of this also.  Early January and one in early March. Those were more ehh with like 2-4 in DC and a lot more west. 

This has a lot of cold on top and in front of it and that makes it a lot easier to get a better result. Giving up on this now is silly. 

If we can get 6" - 10" with no rain, it'll be a win. Sleet/ZR, that's fine. Just don't want to wash the snow away.

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Well I’m not predicting historic lol. But I’m not saying it can’t be either. Totally serious here. Many of these models are getting this thing to an absolutely classic spot. What happens after is still very much up in the air.

Yeah, one thing I will say is historic is probably off the table for our area, and I'm good with that.  It's fair to move goal posts.  3 to 6 before the slopshop is workable for me.

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23 minutes ago, nj2va said:

500 track is just SE of DC (a line from RIC to PHL) which helps too.

This is potentially my first big storm out west (missed dec'20). What are we looking for as good/bad? I see there is a sharp cutoff in amounts as you head west into north wva, does warm sector form out there? How much you thinking for the mountains? 

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

While we wait and because everyone is here, we’ve stopped watching but what about the biblical storm that’s gonna hit the maritimes? Damn the wind with that is gonna be unreal. Look at those isobars lol

I've been paying close attention, since I'll be relocating to eastern New Brunswick. They just had a pretty impressive storm with 80km winds and over a foot of snow in 12 hours. 

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Probably safe to say CMC is going to be our least favorite 12z model…

I'm surprised the Pivotal maps are that poor -- the run obviously sucks, but it looked a bit better straight from the proverbial horses mouth (Environmental Canada) -- https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

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