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MLK 2022 Storm Potential


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Massive drop in confidence for this timeframe on the ensemble... I'm a little worried that could presage a shift in thinking on the GEFS that has it cave to the OP in coming runs, but I know that's not necessarily the case and inter run changes in certainty shouldn't be anything to get hung up on. Just weird to suddenly get so much more spread.

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1 minute ago, CntrTim85 said:

I mean if we take the ICON, add it to the 84 NAM that looks juicy and multiply that by the GEFS, round that to the nearest 100 of the JMA and add it to the NAVGEM, we're looking at a pretty solid car topper. . . maybe mulch and grass before heavy rain. 

You forgot the CRAS model! 

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The GGEM looks a bit better than the GFS but not much and doesn't quite catch fire. Not sure if your discussion about ICON has seen the 00z run early or still waiting to see it? I saw it on meteociel and it looks good. Track is coastal. Problem with ICON is that it tends to go to various extremes and unless the outcome is extreme that makes it unlikely to verify. But you can always hope. 

Bit of a blind man's bluff at this point, working with some very weak signals that have ways of producing a good storm. Would not toss at this early stage. 

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Just now, Ji said:
2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:
I would say the GEFS would be a complete failure if the GFS ends up being 100 percent right with its current solution.

Remember always go with and post the least snow solution!

Yes go with 1-2” of snow followed by 1-2” of rain Thunder and temps rising into the mid to upper 40s then crash back down to 20 typical storm DCA Balt to PHL NYC 

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