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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17


Typhoon Tip
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Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GFS verbatim is mostly snow for Kevin, only .1 to .25" qpf as rain.. again thats just 12z gfs verbatim

The 3-hour increments with rapid boundary layer warming will make the model output for ptype fairly dubious. 

But yeah, a decent thump of snow before rain. 

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2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The 3-hour increments with rapid boundary layer warming will make the model output for ptype fairly dubious. 

But yeah, a decent thump of snow before rain. 

Ya, anything is better than all rain especially if we can mute the heavy rain to less than a quarter of an inch, and keep from torching.. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM is quite a suppressed through 48 hours compared to 00z....but that doesn't necessarily mean a ton considering the 00z GGEM tracked this storm through ROC.

Still tracks it well inland...roughly IPT/ALB/BTV

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52 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol.  Just need to get those mid-level goodies slightly further SE on a BGM to BTV arc and we'll be in business.

Just need to keep getting away from that split conveyor belts and have some big deformation band arcing from PA in NNE.  

icon-all-neng-total_snow_10to1-2539600.thumb.png.34cef458843bbd998d940f79e749ccad.png

This map shows what I am trying to communicate.  The big deform far west, but then the band over south central NH which would be the 6 hour qpf bomb followed by some pivoting while the area towards Ray dryslots.

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