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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17


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Certainly is colder on the NAM FOUS grid over ALB and Logan by a couple C's in the 900mb level...

Not sure how it relates to the appeal in the graphics, but ...

Again, I've been mentioning the NAM's propensity to collapse SE, when bringing events from outside the 48 ... 36 hour, to closer intervals. We'll see where it goes...

 

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I don't care where the little L is at the surface, I was looking at H5 not the surface and there is a difference.

I don't think H5 matters much at this point...it's out in NY. We just need to keep that cold wedged as long as possible. It's a race between the precip and WAA.

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

LOL most dudes are too afraid to ask their wives if they can have a new Xbox much less if they can uproot and move the entire family to rural NH. We have a good setup going now.

Bustin your balls it’s all good. Congrats on that place bro. I’m slumming it in the southern greens, that Randolph view is sweet. Good thing you passed on Bennington lol

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Ha ha, right ...
It is flying in the face of a lot of climate conventions. 
That said, I do think the ridge in the west is in fact slightly farther west than ideal - that is by no means intended as the silver bullet reason for these warm solutions.  Nor the general mise en science of this being more major pain in the ass, than a major storm...
But, I get what Will/others are suggesting re the NAM's apparent 'talent' at seeing mid level warm intrusion events there... What I have a "teensy" problem with still, is that the NAM also has a NW bias over eastern N/A, with N turning amplitude.  It's in the mid levels where that is notable, with vort trajectories tending to be first in line showing up over the N-W arc of plausible solutions.  This strikes me as "maybe" some of that.
I mean it's inCREdibly tedious to consider this, but... 2 degrees of longitude where ever the wind max(es) cross 40 N, means the difference between 4" ... 2" ...8"...  Plus, whether cold stays anchored enough to lift wind concerns... jeez - lot riding on that.  We still have 48 hours, when/where small corrections of that nature can fit. I cannot tell you how many times I have seen a warm 60 hour FOUS grid end up colder It's not anything anyone should hang their hat on to 'save the day' ... but you know. There's obviously an investment in the desire arc of those contributing to this social media platform, to save what can be saved ...all the way down to moral victories if need be. LOL. 
When we don't have a blocking high, it all comes down to mid level tracks, and the NAM has a history of being NW.

Ahhh, yes. I always thought that the NAM’s ability to sniff out mid level warm intrusions was when there was a blocking high to the north. Hopefully your on to something. Perhaps the Euro has a clue. We hope and pray.


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If the idea is that all the good precip falls in 6 hours and that is snowfall rates of 2-3" an hour, I would definitely sell that. In my experience, the models are quick to spit out monster rates but then they don't materialize. Same thing with people predicting big ratios. Usually verifies as something more pedestrian. I still like 8-10" or so here if this thing hauls ass as much as it looks like it will. 

I agree. And snow growth doesn’t look great. Ratios probably will be crap.


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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So will it melt out fully as you think ? Or will you not answer? 

Euro snow depth algorithm says you keep 2-4" of pack..  It's forecasting 6" tomorrow night for you though, but it has you starting with just .1 today, I'm sure you have more than that glacierized since we have about 50% coverage up to an 2" here.  

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