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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17


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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Your area is the most uncertain IMHO....I could see you getting 8-10" but I could also see you only getting 2-4" if this mid-level warm creep continues on guidance for another couple of cycles.

in all honesty I think that is true here, all the way from the berks across nw ct and ma and straight through my area to Brian and Jeff.  We are on the line in the same way I imagine.  The hope is that the initial thump is strong.

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I do expect the interior to stay wedged....the question is whether it's mostly just ORH county and Berks or if most of SNE away from the coast stays wedged. Won't be much pack to protect though unless we can keep the mid-level warmth at bay for several hours during the heavy stuff.

What about the 3-5” glacier OTG prior to storm ? If we stay at 34.. you’d think you’d come east with some pack .

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7 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

I officially rank winter in here going back to 2005……this one is solidly in the F range….it’s not close

So what happens with the next 3 weeks of January and 4 weeks of February? Are you calling those a done deal as well? If so.. Then why bother post anymore this season. Your only going to post non productive comments. See ya next year!

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4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Gfs stalls and moves due east from NY bight. Damn interior peeps would love that.  That's a horse of a different color.  Rooting for ski areas and winter enthusiasts. Should be a long run of storms and rumors of storms. Fluff Refreshers and Sierra cementers with one super fluff bomb thrown in. Go go go wax um up

Something sure bites, and its not only New York, its this storm.

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50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I was giving it until about 72 hours lead time…we’ve now gotten there and guidance is locked and loaded. If anything, I actually expect this to warm/amp up a bit more as we often see in southern stream systems…we’ll get that warm trend until maybe 24h out and then a little messenger shuffle. 
 

NAM is hinting at the mid-level warmth the most but I wouldn’t discount it just because it’s the NAM. Synoptically it makes sense. 
 

Hopefully we get an east tick, but how often do we see those with southern stream juicers? 

I don't care where it trends, at this point...entirely futile and won't make a bit of difference for me. I don't care whether the high is 36 or 42.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If it would make it snow here, sure....we are going to be entering the final third of January with me struggling to double digit seasonal snowfall on the NH border. That in and of itself is notable.

9.5 inches so far in Methuen. Six of those inches fell in one day.....I agree it has been notable for the lack of snowfall.

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If it would make it snow here, sure....we are going to be entering the final third of January with me struggling to double digit seasonal snowfall on the NH border. That in and of itself is notable.

I'm at... 10" for the season?  Up and in hasn't helped...  It has been laughable

We should still have chances...

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I'm at... 10" for the season?  Up and in hasn't helped...  It has been laughable

We should still have chances...

Yea, this season will have the potential to make up a lot of ground in short order, but to keep saying it without results must cause a lot of eye rolls at this point...can't blame people.

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24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What about the 3-5” glacier OTG prior to storm ? If we stay at 34.. you’d think you’d come east with some pack .

Yeah there may be a frozen glacier at the end....but meh. If it's not at least 5-6", it kind of sucks at this point. If we get a 6+ thump, I'm all for it....but my worry is we get about 2" before the flip which is useless. I don't see this trending back east aloft enough to matter....but stranger things have happened.

This winter finds new ways to disappoint...

Probably one of the most incredible storm evolutions I've ever seen. Every single CIPS analog for that ULL position down south has us either getting big snow or some of them actually fringe us....not s single one rips the storm to our west (at least aloft), yet this time, it is going to achieve that.

If you showed me this below map at 24 hours before the storm begins and told me we'd get drenched with rain from an inland runner, I'd think you were on drugs....lol

image.thumb.png.5619a725010f76c7f155199bf6513e73.png

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah there may be a frozen glacier at the end....but meh. If it's not at least 5-6", it kind of sucks at this point. If we get a 6+ thump, I'm all for it....but my worry is we get about 2" before the flip which is useless. I don't see this trending back east aloft enough to matter....but stranger things have happened.

This winter finds new ways to disappoint...

Probably one of the most incredible storm evolutions I've ever seen. Every single CIPS analog for that ULL position down south has us either getting big snow or some of them actually fringe us....not s single one rips the storm to our west (at least aloft), yet this time, it is going to achieve that.

If you showed me this below map at 24 hours before the storm begins and told me we'd get drenched with rain from an inland runner, I'd think you were on drugs....lol

image.thumb.png.5619a725010f76c7f155199bf6513e73.png

Yea, that is the maddening part.....the seasons like 2019-2020 and 2011-2012 are easier to tolerate. I was sure this season wouldn't be like that, and it hasn't, yet the snowfall has still mirrored those seasons and mine is actually worse than the former. I at least got that big December dump in 2019.

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