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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17


Typhoon Tip
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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

The Jan 05th for Jan 11 2011 thread is a total hoot. The more things change the more they stay the same. Funny comment from Ryan, chastised Mike Wankum for putting out totals 60 hrs before. Now that has certainly changed from the top down.

Tip saying heights in Miami too high for a bomb... oops

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31 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I know. And I'm commenting on the fact that for the last storm, the models chased convection/mesolows, but in reality the system didn't and ended up further northwest.

I'm not a met so you know more than me, but didn't the surface low being more east verify, but we were hit with the H7 deform?

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1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

I'm not a met so you know more than me, but didn't the surface low being more east verify, but we were hit with the H7 deform?

Yeah we never got the whole system to come back west on that one. However, The PVA ended up really enhancing the banding a bit more than earlier guidance suggested…but that became apparent on the later runs when QPF boosted into the 0.50 range from the lower 0.2-0.3 amounts on earlier runs. 

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1 hour ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Sugarloaf summit snow depth was ridiculously deep. 97" of snow at Sugarloaf summit in April of 2007.

1749562752_Buriedsign(1).jpg.66fc88d9c12e247641ea2d21d6a2b4b2.jpg

Shortly after than storm some college kids jumped the out-of-bounds markers to ski (or ride, or both - can't recall) the back side of the mountain.  They soon ran into dense spruce-fir forest, unskiable by anything bigger than a red squirrel.  They took off the boards and sank chin deep, and after some floundering thru it, called 911.  They came out okay, but I think they got billed for the rescue costs, appropriately.

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7 minutes ago, MRVexpat said:

What's your thought on ratios assuming CVT/NVT don't get in on that banding?

Honestly haven’t looked at soundings yet.  But it has 4-8” dense for most of C/N Greens type of look unless we can get into a cold conveyor belt or mid-level banding.  18z GFS tried to develop a bit better set up when winds back NE.

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