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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17


Typhoon Tip
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Good morning.. back here on page 47 -   Obviously the 06z oper. GFS was intriguing, though still needs work - I'm sure that run's already been through the gauntlet so won't press. But noting the 850 mb 0C no long penetrates much NW of Willamantic CT to Logon. Obviously there hints this may be a changing coastal ( models) evolution tho -

Fast flow for the loss ..ugh. After all this time and consternation, only 1/3 of the players is now sampled (in theory) but who's doing sounding over the B.C. cordillera.  The other aspect are still not, as of 06z, covered in the more physically realized.  I am not sure if this factor means as much as it used to, frankly, but.. I am also not convinced that it means nothing at all - particularly in a scenario that appears to be more sensitive than a bum tooth ... Nuances meaning the difference in commitment to coastal, vs climate "iffy" track to ALB.  

CIP, the S/W careening through the NP at 84 hours is now 10kts more mightily doing so in this 06z GFS run. And it appears to be "kicking" the lead (nesting our storm) more E in total deep layer kinematic positioning. That is triggering deeper convection explosion ( probably ...) and this 06z attempt at surface relo toward ACK may be a response to that.  But the situation is in flux I feel, and any more east bump of the whole-scale structuring/synopsis through that 84-108 period here in the E, will result in a fuller commitment to more of a GEF -like position.

 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd sell those amounts of over a foot in SNE on the GFS....not happening east of mid level centers.

Yeah prob more like 8-12 then a slot. But if we can nudge this east enough to get the low over the Cape, then we could see some amounts marginally over 12"....kind of like March 2017...I think I had 13-14" in that one before getting slotted.

On the flip side, we can prob sell amounts over 8" if something closer to the Euro happens.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Good morning.. back here on page 41 -   Obviously the 06z oper. GFS was intriguing, though still needs work - I'm sure that run's already been through the gauntlet so won't press. But noting the 850 mb 0C no long penetrates much NW of Willamantic CT to Logon. Obviously there hints this may be a changing coastal ( models) evolution tho -

Fast flow for the loss ..ugh. After all this time and consternation, only 1/3 of the players is now sampled (in theory) but who's doing sounding over the B.C. cordillera.  The other aspect are still not, as of 06z, covered in the more physically realized.  I am not sure if this factor means as much as it used to, frankly, but.. I am also not convinced that it means nothing at all - particularly in a scenario that appears to be more sensitive than a bum tooth ... Nuances meaning the difference in commitment to coastal, vs climate "iffy" track to ALB.  

CIP, the S/W careening through the NP at 84 hours is now 10kts more mightily doing so in this 06z GFS run. And it appears to be "kicking" the lead (nesting our storm) more E in total deep layer kinematic positioning. That is triggering deeper convection explosion ( probably ...) and this 06z attempt at surface relo toward ACK may be a response to that.  But the situation is in flux I feel, and any more east bump of the whole-scale structuring/synopsis through that 84-108 period here in the E, will result in a fuller commitment to more of a GEF -like position.

 

Yea, I hate those uber-sensitive bum teeth.....

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah prob more like 8-12 then a slot. But if we can nudge this east enough to get the low over the Cape, then we could see some amounts marginally over 12"....kind of like March 2017...I think I had 13-14" in that one before getting slotted.

On the flip side, we can prob sell amounts over 8" if something closer to the Euro happens.

Yea, get the mid level synoptics se, and okay....

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd sell those amounts of over a foot in SNE on the GFS....not happening east of mid level centers.

If I could get 6" and some rain and slot and have a 4" glacier, sign me up. But man if that high did not retreat, it would be nuts. You'd probably play naked CF where you are for awhile if that happened. 

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It's the NAM, but I'm only looking at 54 hours (not 84) and the northern stream shortwave is a lot weaker this run and the Friday system is hanging back quite a bit while the southern stream is digging a bit more south....I think this would create a better slingshot solution for NE.

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1 minute ago, rclab said:

Sorry, 40/70. I meant physical therapy. Gave up on mental quite awhile back. As always….

'Physical therapy' has a higher success rate with less clothes on...

 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah prob more like 8-12 then a slot. But if we can nudge this east enough to get the low over the Cape, then we could see some amounts marginally over 12"....kind of like March 2017...I think I had 13-14" in that one before getting slotted.

On the flip side, we can prob sell amounts over 8" if something closer to the Euro happens.

 Mar17 was/is at the top of my list of how this might play out. Big thump then dryslot snizzle while the interior gets the mid level goodies. 

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1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

I think it's much too soon to discuss "compromise" solutions.   They are both moving, so we don't even have stationary goal posts to compromise from.

What I really mean is that to assess the current status quo we compromise gefs and eps with a lean towards other model output.  Every 6 or 12 we shift the status quo using these guidelines.  

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's the NAM, but I'm only looking at 54 hours (not 84) and the northern stream shortwave is a lot weaker this run and the Friday system is hanging back quite a bit while the southern stream is digging a bit more south....I think this would create a better slingshot solution for NE.

ARPEGE leading the way!

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's the NAM, but I'm only looking at 54 hours (not 84) and the northern stream shortwave is a lot weaker this run and the Friday system is hanging back quite a bit while the southern stream is digging a bit more south....I think this would create a better slingshot solution for NE.

I know it's not this simple but I have a hard time buying an inland runner when the trough is that positive as it crosses the miss river. 

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Don't concentrate on the big L though. As Scott says look at the conveyor belts and temps. Forcing is way ahead of the big L. That's the meat and potatoes for us. 6 to 9 hrs and she gone

Depending upon the ultimate track, somebody will get the thumpity dumpity, but then also a pivot while those to the s and e get slotted.  And then there will be deformation way way n and w.  the 12+ will in the pivot I would think, yes?

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Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Depending upon the ultimate track, somebody will get the thumpity dumpity, but then also a pivot while those to the s and e get slotted.  And then there will be deformation way way n and w.  the 12+ will in the pivot I would think, yes?

Yea, guidance often over sells the moisture east of mid level lows...IE they overestimate precip from low level fronto, and drastrically underassess precip attributable to mid level fronto.

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