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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17


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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Can we talk about how utterly useless the ensembles appear to be right now? All they have done is slowly chase the OP on all 3 major suites.

I thought we were supposed to look at the ensembles and ignore the ops this far out?

The melts will be something to behold over the next 4 days, with the slightest tick east bringing a short-lived euphoria with visions of BM positions dancing in peeps heads.

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Can we talk about how utterly useless the ensembles appear to be right now? All they have done is slowly chase the OP on all 3 major suites.

 

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEFS have been pretty dispersive from the OP with respect to this system.

 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

They can fail in potent setups like this. I've found that to be true more often than not. 

I was just gonna say this.  You sort of have to know when ensembles are good to use or when they're not.  They have clearly been leaning west of mean, which lends credence to western solutions.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Except with potent ocean storms, then the seaward mean reigns supreme.

 

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I was just gonna say this.  You sort of have to know when ensembles are good to use or when they're not.  They have clearly been leaning west of mean, which lends credence to western solutions.

I almost treat it as more of a change in trend WRT time. Not necessarily what they have 6 days out or whatever. See what the trend is with the ensembles. It also helps seeing the members. When a large cluster looks like the op in a setup like this, lean back. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

 

I almost treat it as more of a change in trend WRT time. Not necessarily what they have 6 days out or whatever. See what the trend is with the ensembles. It also helps seeing the members. When a large cluster looks like the op in a setup like this, lean back. 

I was nervous about it, but DT seemed to just discount the OP due to ensembles.

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1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Only since 12z yesterday

No I have been posting this for a while, the mean is greatly misused.

Let me give an example of the Golden Mean Fallacy:

Let's say for example, the world is in the grip of a pandemic.  Scientists develop a vaccine for the pandemic in remarkably short order.  However, people break into two clusters over the vaccine.  Cluster 1 says "you must get two vaccine doses, that will give you great protection!".  Cluster two says, "this is a rushed and untested vaccine, don't take any doses, it could be dangerous!"

So I go for the mean solution, and get just one dose.  Big error.  One of the two clusters is correct here...in fact the mean is a certain loser.  

 

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Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

No I have been posting this for a while, the mean is greatly misused.

Let me give an example of the Golden Mean Fallacy:

Let's say for example, the world is in the grip of a pandemic.  Scientists develop a vaccine for the pandemic in remarkably short order.  However, people break into two clusters over the vaccine.  Cluster 1 says "you must get two vaccine doses, that will give you great protection!".  Cluster two says, "this is a rushed and untested vaccine, don't take any doses, it could be dangerous!"

So I go for the mean solution, and get just one dose.  Big error.  One of the two clusters is correct here...in fact the mean is a certain loser.  

 

I understand and agree with what you mean about the clustering; I am saying that there has only been a western cluster since 12z yesterday, at least on the GEFS.

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5 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

No I have been posting this for a while, the mean is greatly misused.

Let me give an example of the Golden Mean Fallacy:

Let's say for example, the world is in the grip of a pandemic.  Scientists develop a vaccine for the pandemic in remarkably short order.  However, people break into two clusters over the vaccine.  Cluster 1 says "you must get two vaccine doses, that will give you great protection!".  Cluster two says, "this is a rushed and untested vaccine, don't take any doses, it could be dangerous!"

So I go for the mean solution, and get just one dose.  Big error.  One of the two clusters is correct here...in fact the mean is a certain loser.  

 

Sometimes that works out, sometimes it doesn't. Often times there is somewhat of a compromise....ie degree of phasing.

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17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

I almost treat it as more of a change in trend WRT time. Not necessarily what they have 6 days out or whatever. See what the trend is with the ensembles. It also helps seeing the members. When a large cluster looks like the op in a setup like this, lean back. 

So what's the trend here

20220112_123852.jpg

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7 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Not that it is a reliable source ( I don't think ), but the Navgem was way east and out to Sea!!  lolol

That’s a good sign considering how far west the Canadian and European guidance were and although it’s a very underrated model it does have a SE bias. Great start to the 12z guidance! 

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