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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17


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13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the OP runs are on the far western edge of their respective ensemble means, I’m not particularly worried about a far W track, especially given the initial confluence over Canada

it’s a possibility, but not a major concern IMO

....

the 500mb look is amazing though, that’s what matters most at this range

 

Yup...and thx for the Euro cluster there -

Yeah, these are really just another ens member at this range, frankly.   Doesn't mean much for detailing an event that is on the "other side" of Friday's handling ... that's the other thing.  It's still a wild card imho, not for how it impacts ( less is likelier ) but how it interacts with that -NAO flex going on up there next weekend..etc...etc... usual headaches --> back-logs an effect on the upstream eddy and all that fun.

I mean, this thing could end up stalling - I can visualize several outcomes ... none of which are outside possibility.

I'm really more impressed that this was signaled 3 or 4 days ago... laxed some in the interim, only to came back like this. It's got that history, but also fits the telecon numerics.   Sometimes bigger events have so much physical "genetics" ...they're almost like recessive traits ( LOL), that they keep showing up. Then, there we are -

We'll see.  I think this thing's confidence as actually being there and real, leaped into higher tier like a 1990's pop star.  We're in ens mode though.

 

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