Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Jan 14-15th Hybrid Winter Storm


Chicago Storm
 Share

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, Brian D said:

And I will end up with an LES event from this set up. Very cold air running parallel at the surface and mid levels (ENE) with a bullseye on my area. Exact placement determines if it's 1" IMBY or 6". It should make its way down towards Duluth during the day, as winds turn more NE. They maybe undercasting the snow down that way, especially downtown area/Superior, but since it'll be afternoon by then, streamers usually peter out some as the day warms, so I guess we shall see what happens.

LES event 1-14-22.gif

Similar over this way with around 4" through tomorrow afternoon.  Persistent ne/ene flow will keep light snow going through Saturday it appears, with additional light accums also.  If not for the extremely dry air and few other negating factors, would probably see some decent amounts... However there's always a sneaky surprise somewhere and my area is prime with a ne flow.  Something to watch.

730454448_MQT_snow_00-24hr(3).png.a8876aa98ed933b9a86352bba6bc3cce.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

New winter weather advisory stops 5 miles west of here lol.  Despite the 18z NAM weenie run I'm still gonna be a scrooge and say we get shut out.  Very well could be a situation where we get zilch while the QC gets 3-4".  Good chance at a sharp cutoff on the eastern edge.  If it ends up being that close I'm blasting west into that shit tomorrow evening lol.

  • Haha 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

*insert eye roll and intense death glare* mad jelly. Hoping for a few more east shifts but not holding my breath. Ha 

:lol: Plumbers are coming Monday to put in a new water line. I'm hoping this snow will be somewhat fluffy so I can use a leaf blower to uncover all the locator markings they plotted today and tomorrow.

 

My luck sucks :lol:

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said:

*insert eye roll and intense death glare* mad jelly. Hoping for a few more east shifts but not holding my breath. Ha 

Going with the cut off looks like ILX has you nearer the 4" mark than 1", on the higher end of the spectrum.

 

Normally I'd be rooting for the GFS, but have to hope for the Euro so I can get back to work Tuesday with running water.

 

 

FB_IMG_1642121249141.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Been super busy with work and family life the past week and haven’t had time to visit this weather board….but man am I sweating the gradient tomorrow. The NWS official forecast for Minneapolis is 1-5” and I gotta say that’s probably about as refined as you can get with the eastern cutoff basically imby. 
 

Hoping to get at least an inch to make up for the snow that melted/compacted yesterday. 2” would be great, while those on the west end of Lake Minnetonka probably end up with 5”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

:lol: Plumbers are coming Monday to put in a new water line. I'm hoping this snow will be somewhat fluffy so I can use a leaf blower to uncover all the locator markings they plotted today and tomorrow.

 

My luck sucks :lol:

 

7 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

Going with the cut off looks like ILX has you nearer the 4" mark than 1", on the higher end of the spectrum.

 

Normally I'd be rooting for the GFS, but have to hope for the Euro so I can get back to work Tuesday with running water.

 

 

FB_IMG_1642121249141.jpg

Man that sucks. Well I hope a dry bubble forms around you ;) I know this isn't my storm. After it shifted west days ago I knew it wasn't coming back. But still hoping maybe I can get a nice band to park over me and luck out. But not holding my breath. Think 1-2in is more likely and think there is a ceiling albeit low for 3-5in if everything worked our perfectly but not expecting that. Models tend to underestimate dry ne flow so wouldn't be shocked if I get nothing. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's the LSX AFD for those in eastern MO and west central iL.

FXUS63 KLSX 132351
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
551 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022

.SHORT TERM... (Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 259 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022

...Winter Storm on track for Friday Afternoon-Saturday...

It`s currently the calm before the storm across the CWA with lots
of sun and above normal temps. The pockets of light rain across
parts of eastern MO and western IL exited by early afternoon with
clouds clearing quickly. This evening looks pretty tranquil with
colder air filtering into the region as high pressure settles
southeastward. Much of the latest guidance is showing a fairly
strong signal for low stratus and fog developing overnight from
central IL west-southwestward into western IL and parts of eastern
MO. In fact some of the guidance suggests that the fog could be
dense in the 10-15z time frame. I am not that confident in the
dense fog aspect but it is something we will have to watch. The
remainder of Friday morning should be rather tranquil with clouds
thickening ahead of the winter storm.

All systems still appear go for a winter storm impacting the area
starting Friday afternoon and lasting possibly into early Saturday
evening. This will be the first real widespread snowfall impacting
the entire CWA. There are still some questions on amounts and onset
times but the majority of the guidance suggest that snow will
develop sometime in the afternoon across Northwest Missouri and
west central IL in response to isentropic lift, weak large scale
forcing, and impressive mid level frontogenetic forcing. This
should lead to a rather robust and wide band of snow driven
strongly by frontogenesis. The band should then widen and
translate slowly south-southeastward on Friday Night and into
Saturday morning as both the frontogenesis and large scale forcing
attendant with the upper trof/low centered in the Plains digs
southeastward. The mid level lapse rates are 6+ DegC/km
suggesting a good response to the frontogenetic forcing and
supporting snowfall rates in excess of a half inch per hour at
times.

While there could be some brief rain at the onset of snow for areas
from central MO into southwest IL and points south, I still think
that this should be brief with low levels cooling rather quickly.
This will be a fairly wet snow with lower than normal SLRs. The
longevity of the snow in the north and intensity of the forcing
still highlights this region for the highest amounts. The WPC
forecasts, HREF, and probabilistic guidance all support this area
having potential for 6+ inches. We have decided to issue a winter
storm watch for this area starting on Friday afternoon. For the
remainder of the area this looks like a pretty solid 2-5 inch
snowfall and will eventually lead to an advisory within the next
12-18 hours.

There has been some concern about a period of heavy snowfall late
Saturday afternoon/night into early Sunday morning across southeast
MO/southern IL associated with the upper low and deepening cyclone
as it tracks to our south. The trend in the latest ensemble and
deterministic models now has the upper low digging longer and to
the east of the track yesterday, and not bottoming out until
Saturday night well south across the lower MS Valley and then
shifting east across the deep south. This track would suggest this
snow threat then will be well south of the CWA.

Glass

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From DVN:

UPDATE  
  
ISSUED AT 809 PM CST THU JAN 13 2022  
  
18Z GUIDANCE, SPECIFICALLY THE NAM BRINGS MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION  
FURTHER EAST. DIVING INTO THE DETAILS OF WHY THIS HAPPENS AND WHAT  
WE NEED TO SEE IN 00Z GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THIS IS A FLUKE OR A  
TREND FOLLOWS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IN THE 18Z NAM RAMPS UP FROM  
21Z TO 03Z AND DROPS CLOSE TO 3/4 TO ONE INCH AN HOUR FOR A FEW  
HOURS. THIS IS WHAT INCREASE THE EASTERN SNOW TOTALS. LOOKING TO  
FORCING, THE OMEGAS IN THE DGZ PEAK EARLY IN THE NAM, 15 TO 21Z  
AND THEN FALL THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. TRUE WE GET COLDER, BUT WE SEE  
MORE CLIMO SNOW RATIOS AT THIS TIME. THIS EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE  
HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS DON'T SEEM TO BE TIED WITH THE HEAVIER AXIS  
SHIFTING EAST, AS MUCH AS ADDITIONAL SNOW THERE. THE CLIPPER AND  
BETTER CVA ARE WEST OF THE AREA, WHERE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY  
HAD THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. THE NBM HAS TRENDED EAST WITH AN   
ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO TO TOTALS, LIKELY FROM THE 18Z GUIDANCE. THE  
00Z NAM IS STARTING TO COME IN AND IS BACKING OFF ALL SO SLIGHTLY  
FROM THE 18Z WITH EASTERN AMOUNTS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON 00Z  
GFS ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE DATA, WHICH CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE  
CURRENT FORECAST IS CORRECT. WHILE THE DIFFERENCES HERE ARE  
AMOUNTS, THE IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO BE UNCHANGED UNLESS WE CAN SEE  
1+ INCHES AND HOUR AND DRIER SNOW BLOWING AROUND. WITH WET SNOW TO  
START, ONE WOULD THINK THAT THE CURRENT SNOWPACK WOULD BE MORE  
STICKY TO THAT THAN DRIER SNOW. 00Z GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY ENSEMBLES  
WILL HELP FINE TUNE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.   
  
THE 00Z HRRR IS IN AND,   
WHILE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE 18Z NAM, DOES HAVE MORE SNOW EAST.   
THIS SOLUTION WOULD POINT TOWARDS A POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE   
WARNING EAST BY ONE COLUMN OF COUNTIES.    
Link to comment
Share on other sites

...While there could be some brief rain at the onset of snow for areas
from central MO into southwest IL and points south, I still think
that this should be brief with low levels cooling rather quickly...

0z Nam and other short term guidance has been keeping surface and lower levels warmer in St. Louis area compared to previous runs. I'd like to see what other runs show but I'm worried about the assumption of quick cooling in this area. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Chicago Storm changed the title to Jan 14-15th Hybrid Winter Storm

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...