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Jan 15-16 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland
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18z GFS would dump 6-10 inches of snow here before warm nose/changeover to sleet, but the dang surface temperature is too warm that whole time.  For some reason the GFS shows literally zero cold air advection from CAD, even though it's showing a 10-15 knot NE wind??? The temperature just hangs at 36-37 for four or five hours.

Every other model has the temp rapidly dropping to around freezing and below as soon as precip starts. Here is a chart of Surface temps/Dew points and total qpf at 1:00am and 7:00am. Will be interesting to see how this verifies. I'm betting on the Euro/NAM/RGEM for surface temps.

Clemson, SC

  7:00 PM 1:00 AM total liquid 7:00 AM total liquid
18z gfs 41/32 37/36 .21 liquid 34/32 1.21
18z Nam 3k 37/32 32/29 .05 liquid N/A N/A
18z Nam 38/29 32/28 .02 liquid 27/23 0.57
18z RGEM 42/25 37/28 .01 liquid 29/27 0.65
12z Euro 41/32 35/31 .02 liquid 27/24 0.54
12z Ukmet 40/33 38/33 .00 liquid 33/33 0.11

 

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I just released my first snow/sleet accumulation map this evening. Pretty much in line with most other forecast. Wouldn't be shocked for 12+ inches in mountains.

Maybe a little conservative in the foothills and western piedmont, but I really think this warm nose is going to be an issue. If the storm was a little further east, my forecast would change. But I do believe with a track this close to the coast, and with the storm strengthening, I believe we are going to have sleet issues everywhere outside the mountains.

In central locations, I kept the freezing rain area kind of large. I personally do not think it will be quiet this large, so it will probably need to be scaled down as we get closer to the event. The warm air advection shown on the models is tough.

1132022_AccumulationMap1stCall.png

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8 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

There is also a group that live and die by the icon and nam

Man you should see some of the weenies in the mid Atlantic thread defending the 84 hr Nam it’s unreal. I post them here just because it’s something to do before the main course of GFS but even I can say I’m a realist when it comes to overall expectations 

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

LOL I cannot even find it on most of the sites its usually on...are you sure it ain't the 18Z from yesterday

PSU from mid Atlantic thread was saying that it was almost identical to last run. Low goes right over DC so I would highly doubt it made a 250 mile shift lol

Kuchera looks very similar to last run. May have even bumped up snow totals in the blue ridge by a couple inches 

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1 hour ago, WxJordan said:

I just released my first snow/sleet accumulation map this evening. Pretty much in line with most other forecast. Wouldn't be shocked for 12+ inches in mountains.

Maybe a little conservative in the foothills and western piedmont, but I really think this warm nose is going to be an issue. If the storm was a little further east, my forecast would change. But I do believe with a track this close to the coast, and with the storm strengthening, I believe we are going to have sleet issues everywhere outside the mountains.

In central locations, I kept the freezing rain area kind of large. I personally do not think it will be quiet this large, so it will probably need to be scaled down as we get closer to the event. The warm air advection shown on the models is tough.

1132022_AccumulationMap1stCall.png

Really think that is a super solid call

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