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Jan 15-16 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland
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7 minutes ago, sarcean said:

This hasn’t really been a RDU storm for days 

It won't be a Triad or piedmont storm either!  Nothing at all like what we thought would happen, however, this is exactly what we should have thought would happen.  (Charlie Brown flies through the air and once again lands on his back)

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1 minute ago, eyewall said:
The hard truth from RAH:

A few showers may develop across the
western Piedmont Saturday evening, then widespread precipitation
will spread across the region Saturday night through early Sunday
night. Models are coming into better agreement with the details, and
confidence is increasing that this will be less of a snow event and
more of a freezing rain/rain event. All areas will be below zero
when precipitation begins to fall Saturday night, and most areas
north of the Sandhills and southern Piedmont will likely see snow
where it develops, while southern areas have a rain/snow mix. Then
by early Sunday morning, a warm nose develops as the the possibility
of freezing rain/sleet spreads north to just south of the Triangle
by noon. By late Sunday afternoon, areas away from the Triad will
likely have rain, while freezing rain becomes the dominant
precipitation type across the northwest. This warm nose will lower
snowfall amounts across most areas, even the Triad. Accumulating ice
will become the greater hazard in the afternoon, and with wind gusts
around 25 mph, could easily break weak icy tree branches. A dry slot
will likely cut off moisture and end precipitation quickly late
Sunday evening into early Sunday night. A Winter Storm Watch may be
issued for portions of central NC either tonight or Friday morning.
Highs Sunday will range from near 30 far NW to near 50 far SE.

Well the snow potential from this storm certainly died a quick death.

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4 minutes ago, NC DataDude said:

So.. Seeing .44 ice in JoCo land (I-95 central NC)..  Are there any calculations on how quickly snow/sleet/ice buildup is removed/melted due to regular cold rain after the surface temps rise above freezing?  

Sleet typically endures longer than snow if there is a lot of it.

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1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

So do we need that moisture back in Tennessee to be smaller or what?

well yeah, it's due to the ULL moving through faster...that slug of moisture with a ULL that strong to the WEST of us means the warm nose will be visiting sooner.  Quicker it can catch up with the precip and SFC low the better.  Compare to the previous runs from Monday/Tuesday...

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11 minutes ago, Wow said:

well yeah, it's due to the ULL moving through faster...that slug of moisture with a ULL that strong to the WEST of us means the warm nose will be visiting sooner.  Quicker it can catch up with the precip and SFC low the better.  Compare to the previous runs from Monday/Tuesday...

The lastest GFS is trying to show a kick back to snow after the LP moves north. Any thoughts? 

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