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Jan 15-16 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland
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1 minute ago, Tigerchick224 said:

Upstate SC Peeps- Can I have some honest feedback on this first call map? I have a lot of friends and family who ask me about weather and I don’t want to disappoint them by being to bullish. I thought Chris Justus was somewhat conservative and heavily reliant on climo today,and with some of his past calls, within good reason. However, I am really liking this front end thump models are depicting before the warm nose. I tried to make a map between model ensemble estimates and his forecast. Thanks in advance!


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Tigerchick, that's pretty much what I'm going with. I have 5-8", 4-6" 2-3" and 1-2"...pretty much your same zones. I thought Chris put out an excellent videocast. There is still much uncertainty. And if we get the amount of ice that is potential, it will for sure cut down on the snow totals.

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Tigerchick, that's pretty much what I'm going with. I have 5-8", 4-6" 2-3" and 1-2"...pretty much your same zones. I thought Chris put out an excellent videocast. There is still much uncertainty. And if we get the amount of ice that is potential, it will for sure cut down on the snow totals.

Thanks! I am hoping we can keep the warm nose at bay for as long as possible!


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7 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

EPS father south and a bit stronger as it passes through GA. Snow line a bit farther south. Usually if the 500mb low passes overhead or slightly south we get decent snow and maybe more than decent but for now will stay conservative.

 

Really curious to see how this ends up playing out for the Atlanta metro. Seems like a lot of possibilities are on the table. Would like to see this tick further south the rest of the day. 

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4 minutes ago, sarcean said:

I know we will get some snow in Charlotte but sure looks like alot of sleet, freezing, rain, and ice will mix in with it. Then when those backside winds hit it will be lights out.

Trends have been better. I think we are good for 2”-5” with possibly more in the NW part of the county. 

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22 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

EPS father south and a bit stronger as it passes through GA. Snow line a bit farther south. Usually if the 500mb low passes overhead or slightly south we get decent snow and maybe more than decent but for now will stay conservative.

Screen Shot 2022-01-13 at 2.13.13 PM.png

It seems to me historically 70% of ATL snow events are weak gulf lows, 20% stronger upper lows and 10% coastals that develop in SE GA or SC like 1/22/87 as I mentioned yesterday.   I still lean towards it being unlikely they see significant snow unless either the primary and 500 trof digs way more over MS/AL or the transfer to the coastal is earlier 

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8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It seems to me historically 70% of ATL snow events are weak gulf lows, 20% stronger upper lows and 10% coastals that develop in SE GA or SC like 1/22/87 as I mentioned yesterday.   I still lean towards it being unlikely they see significant snow unless either the primary and 500 trof digs way more over MS/AL or the transfer to the coastal is earlier 

Yeah, ideally we'd like the low to track somewhere between Gainesville, FL and Orlando for all snow in the ATL-AHN corridor. This one definitely isn't taking that track, at least so far. 

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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

which one dominates?

Probably depends on which RDU red tagger you ask. I think that the CAD maintains its Integrity a little more and it's predominately sleet/zr/711 slushie after a quick 1-2 inch burst for now. I don't think we'll get above freezing. Eyewall just said rain/zr split which is probably just as likely as my thinking.

Think of it like this:

image.png.0b72e6e32aec074cd4ee273f4cc29a1a.png

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4 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Probably depends on which RDU red tagger you ask. I think that the CAD maintains its Integrity a little more and it's predominately sleet/zr/711 slushie after a quick 1-2 inch burst for now. I don't think we'll get above freezing. Eyewall just said rain/zr split which is probably just as likely as my thinking.

Think of it like this:

image.png.0b72e6e32aec074cd4ee273f4cc29a1a.png

Too rich.  I’m 4 miles north of RDU so I would take 2.5 “of snow,.3 of sleet then a little ZR to a little bit of rain and call it a day.  I think we miss out on backside accumulating snow but it would have been cool to pick up a quick 0.5-1” at the end.
 

 

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13 minutes ago, Local Yokel Wx said:

Several friends are running up 215 to hike and ride out the storm along the southern portion of the Great Balsams. 

This will likely be the spot for the highest totals in our area

11111.jpg

I think Mt. Mitchell will do a little better but that's awesome

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