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Jan 15-16 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland
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2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I mean. There’s a reason why GSP didn’t cliff dive like this thread.

If you are in our area there is every reason to be upset. Nobody likes a front ender to rain scenario with mainly a mix at the start to boot.

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4 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I mean. There’s a reason why GSP didn’t cliff dive like this thread.

I say this completely in good nature and from a place of levity. But typically, as someone with the username "ILMRoss", when a different user named "BooneWX" tells me not to cliff dive, it's time to cliff dive. Haha

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6 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I mean. There’s a reason why GSP didn’t cliff dive like this thread.

GSP

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 320 am EST Wednesday: The latest guidance suite is starting to
feature a bit better agreement on the overall aspects of the winter
storm likely to impact the area over the weekend. However, there
remains some variation regarding low tracks, thermal profiles, and
QPF for various periods, and these details continue to make
precipitation types and amounts highly uncertain.

Nearly all solutions have trended toward cutting off the southern
portion of the split upper flow near the lower Mississippi River
Valley by late Saturday. In a slight role reversal over the past 24
hours, the ECMWF 500 mb prognostic now features a cutoff low with a
farther south low center position than the operational GFS. However,
both models agree fairly well on the general timing, migrating the
system over the Deep/Mid South Sunday and then over the Carolinas
Sunday night as the system phases back into the northern stream.
Meanwhile, sprawling surface high pressure from southern Ontario to
New England will establish a strong cold air damming configuration
east of the Appalachians ahead of the storm on Saturday. The
resulting surface-based cold layer is becoming one of the more
confident aspects of the upcoming weekend storm. The onset timing of
wintry precipitation, however, remains uncertain. There are hints of
weak and shallow upglide developing over the preexisting baroclinic
zone as early as late Friday night or Saturday morning, with the
isentropic lift slowly improving the day on Saturday well east of
the approaching system. The forecast features below guidance
temperatures and wintry ptypes at onset across the northern half.

The period of deepest moisture and best forcing now looks slated for
Saturday night through Sunday as a Deep South surface wave
transitions to the Carolina coast. Strong jet-level divergence is
indicated during this period and deformation zone forcing will
likely impact our area by Sunday, especially over western NC given
the current low track forecast. Precipitation types remain
challenging. Profiles have trended to stronger warm nosing across
the southern half of the area, with prolonged sleet and southern
tier freezing rain now quite possible. However, the operational
model runs appear warmer than most of the ensemble members, so much
of the QPF could still fall as snow. An ensemble approach has been
adopted for weekend profiles, which leads to more snow in the
forecast than might be indicated on operational model profiles. The
mixed ptype belt should especially impact locations southeast of I-
85, but with a changeover back to snow likely occurring from the
west throughout on Sunday night as the system pulls away to the
northeast. Scattered upslope snow showers should persist along the
TN border counties through Sunday night, and possibly well into
Monday, further enhancing snow amounts there. We are still a
bit out of the Winter Storm Watch timeframe, so this will remain
highlighted in the HWO. The main change will be the addition of
sleet and freezing rain to the forecast, especially across the
southeast part of the area.

Another vigorous shortwave is forecast to drop southeast into the
eastern trough Monday before the flow pattern flattens out by
Tuesday. This could briefly reinvigorate western mountain snow
showers, which may not have completely ended from the weekend system
before this wave arrives. Upslope moisture will gradually end Monday
night into Tuesday.
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1 minute ago, ILMRoss said:

I say this completely in good nature and from a place of levity. But typically, as someone with the username "ILMRoss", when a different user named "BooneWX" tells me not to cliff dive, it's time to cliff dive. Haha

Luckily for you, the name doesn’t fit my location anymore. 

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Face value Nam looks better than gfs by end of the run but Nam is so far out still have to wait at least a solid like 36 hrs. Looking to use 3k Nam when it’s in range for llc 

side note high pressure 4mb’s weaker as well but still in a nice spot by end of the run 

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These model runs are pretty amazing, especially on the Euro. Honestly with that powerhouse high to the north I'm shocked it isn't going further south. Definitely a very strong storm to say the least, a 10 mb drop in 6 hours is some legit stuff. From 1005 mb over Birmingham to 978 when it's over CT shows just how dynamic this system is. I'd feel confident if I'm in Chattanooga, Greenville & Asheville, and somewhat worried in Charlotte & Raleigh. 

With the moisture transport & pressure gradient this has all the looks of a serious snow machine

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1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

Just from experience/climo, NAM looks like snow to ice to me. Has negative dewpoints over extreme NE NC at hour 84 which is pretty rare and gives you an idea of how the CAD could be legit' with this. (If you believe the NAM lol)

I also feel like the temp gradient will lead to some pretty intense snowfall rates along and west of the low track, especially with those dews in place

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