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Jan 15-16 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland
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I wouldn’t get too concerned at this range. Can’t tell you how many times over the last 10+ years a storm would “go missing” at this 5 day range whether it “lose” the storm altogether or have it modeled a good ways off from what it ends up being. No reason for anyone in central/eastern NC, SC, GA to throw in the towel at this point.

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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

That WRAL graphic is from the “European ensembles which is one of their exclusive products”.   I’m surprised they are even showing that much. When Fishel was the chief they were much more conservative until 2-3 days out.  

Completely off topic, but with the passage of time did anything ever come out about why Greg Fisher left?  I still miss him.

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25 minutes ago, EarlGrey said:

Here are the chances for 3'' of snow from WRAL.

 

There's a 32% chance that Raleigh could see three inches of snow!

This is such a crazy graphic.  I understand perhaps giving general ranges of 10, 20, 30, etc. percent chances of snowfall of X amount (and even those are questionable).  But, how could anyone offer that degree of precision even 12 hours out, much less 4-5 days?  For instance, Clinton has a 21% chance of seeing 3 inches of snow?  Not 20% and definitely not 22%, but exactly 21%?  So, if the atmospheric conditions were exactly the same as they are right now, and we play them out 100 times, then exactly 21 of those times Clinton would receive 3 inches of snow?  No way could we possibly know that or perform that experiment.  And there’s definitely not empirical evidence that we can fall back on to know this probability to this degree of precision.  This is such a horrible use of statistics and probability…

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7 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Also funny that the ops have come in worse today but WRAL has been increasing the talk more today about snow here.

Call me crazy...and I am.. but talking this storm up(especially it being on a wknd) is good for the economy... period. Grocery stores, Hardware stores, certain clothing items...etc. perfect opportunity to clear some shelves and rake in the $$$.Capitalism at it's best... '-/

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7 minutes ago, eyewall said:

1642442400-Htn2QIgzjvA.png

1642442400-cxSio3brqjE.png

Still think it’s so weird to see 20/50 showing “Big” Events for CLT and points N/W. For this time frame I can only remember in recent memory Dec 2018, Feb 2014 being this strong of a signal this far out, specifically  the Feb 14 storm really started barking that Saturday afternoon then By Tuesday I was taking screenshots of my NOAA Forecast bc I’d never seen amounts like that. Every storm is different but STRONG signals atleast 

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17 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Also funny that the ops have come in worse today but WRAL has been increasing the talk more today about snow here.

They've chosen their words carefully...   They keep saying, slower, more moisture, and more "winter" impact...  They have mentioned it will likely be a mix.

However, they love sharing those graphics with the "probability" of certain amounts direct from the ensembles.

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They've chosen their words carefully...   They keep saying, slower, more moisture, and more "winter" impact...  They have mentioned it will likely be a mix.
However, they love sharing those graphics with the "probability" of certain amounts direct from the ensembles.

TBH those ensemble graphics are manna from forecasting gods at this range. There’s a shape, you get to communicate a pseudo-snowmap well before it’s responsible to put together an actual map but you also get to absolve blame to the model in case things go wrong. I can blame them. I interned there back in the day and one of my good met friends (no comment on who) is on the team; they’re smart cookies and I generally think they thread the needle pretty well of tipping their hand while also being responsible with what they put out.
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3 minutes ago, NCSUGrad said:

Greg is a good guy. He took off to Florida for a while but now is back in the region and very well may be a reader of these boards. I hope the above comment is deleted.  

Yes, he is one of the good ones and was always a straight shooter for our chances. Childhood memories of his forecasting. Those were fun times. 

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11 minutes ago, NCSUGrad said:

Greg is a good guy. He took off to Florida for a while but now is back in the region and very well may be a reader of these boards. I hope the above comment is deleted.  

Best forecaster I ever had the pleasure of watching. There are no words for how much he's missed. I'm also encouraged that he's back. He has been greatly missed.

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Fishel still posts updates on his Facebook page!  
Here is his update from 2PM today:

Quote
ONE OF MY WEATHER MENTORS ONCE TOLD ME, I’D RATHER BE RIGHT THAN FIRST!
I’ll never be the first to address a snow threat, because I know that if something looks good 5-7 days out, more than likely that’s the scenario that will not occur. The global models are all over the place today, but one trend is clear-overall a warmer solution. and the upper air features don’t look as promising. And there will likely be many more changes between now and the weekend. Bottom line, sit back and relax. We got a long way to go on this one baby. Perfect prognostication will have to wait a few days lol.

 

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42 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Also funny that the ops have come in worse today but WRAL has been increasing the talk more today about snow here.

They heavily use ensembles, which have been been trending from flatter and weaker to stronger and more wintry as the Ops have trended from adequately strong and favorable to more amped warmer aloft.  If the Ops continue to trend in that direction, you can expect the ensembles to follow and WRAL to follow that.

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

They heavily use ensembles, which have been been trending from flatter and weaker to stronger and more wintry as the Ops have trended from adequately strong and favorable to more amped warmer aloft.  If the Ops continue to trend in that direction, you can expect the ensembles to follow and WRAL to follow that.

In the meantime it's funny seeing them going in opposite directions. Hopefully the ensembles are correct and the ops will correct course.

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31 minutes ago, NCSUGrad said:

Greg is a good guy. He took off to Florida for a while but now is back in the region and very well may be a reader of these boards. I hope the above comment is deleted.  

Wherever he is and whatever he is doing, I wish him well.  He is missed.

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Latest from WRAL for the Triangle. It all depends on the track of the low.

 

Mike Maze will have the newest runs of Futurecast on WRAL News at 11. Here are tonight's model trends for the weekend winter weather:
-The bulk of the precipitation occurring Sunday and Sunday night...this is slower than the late Saturday timeframe we saw yesterday. 
-A stronger and more impactful system
-A deeper dive in the jet stream allowing low pressure to form near the Gulf and more moisture moving in
-Wintry mix and not just snow. Sleet, freezing rain, and rain could also fall at various times during the event. This depends on how close to the shore or how inland the surface low pressure tracks. We will really start to get a better grasp on this as high resolution models become available at the end of the week.

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Just now, Brick Tamland said:

In the meantime it's funny seeing them going in opposite directions. Hopefully the ensembles are correct and the ops will correct course.

They're really not going in opposite directions though.  Oversimplifying for concept illustration, but the Ops are going from a preferred track (good) to a left track (bad).  The Ensemble mean is going from  a right track (bad) to a preferred track (good).  If the Ops stay left, then you can eventually expect the ensembles to go from preferred to left.

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