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Jan 15-16 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland
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3 minutes ago, burgertime said:

CMC looks really interesting to me. It also looks like it's doing a better job of seeing how that LP is sucking in the cold air to the north. Only out to 99 on my maps but has potential for sure. 

at 114 much more of a neutral to negative tilt with the energy over MS compared to GFS at same time frame. Damn

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If you compare the GFS & Euro the Eastern US is pretty similar, high pressure placement almost identical and only 4 MB difference. However the GFS is showing major difference to the west, the high over ID is considerably weaker on the GFS and it's bringing a low pressure into the Pac NW about 12 hours sooner. 

image.thumb.png.fc05be6beffb1574506b0e10b54fed75.png

Just seems to be one of those solutions that until we get to sampling will produce some wild differences as there's so many pieces of energy throwing the models off. It's my opinion that the GFS is clearly not handling this well

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8 minutes ago, Lookout said:

UK is south but a lot of snow in ga and sc. Although the differences are certainly there, considering this is still 4 to 5 days out, I feel like there is remarkable agreement. Sure wouldn't get hung up on any one run or model though

Yeah it’s south but definitely north of its 0Z run. Probably playing into its suppression bias. 

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It all comes down to how much energy gets wrapped into the ULL.  Less is best for GA/SC/E NC.  Stronger ULL will put out more precip but will be more ice/sleet with a stout HP overhead holding in the CAD at the surface.  Still way too early to say. Ensemble means looks like a good average.

Looks like most of the models are picking up on it and looking likely at least some of us are going to get plastered.

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7 minutes ago, Lookout said:

UK is south but a lot of snow in ga and sc. Although the differences are certainly there, considering this is still 4 to 5 days out, I feel like there is remarkable agreement. Sure wouldn't get hung up on any one run or model though.

Yeah completely agree on the agreement part. Knock on wood but feels like the big picture synoptic features are settled. More ticks and slides and slips N/S/E/W are coming but it's there. And I don't think we're getting too far over our skis saying that this is typically when the big dogs come into focus.

 

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14 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Can already foresee the homerism regionally. Before the Euro runs, can we please be mindful that just because you like the run, doesn’t mean everyone on the forum will (ie. West vs eastern NC).

Thanks.

Amen. I’ve learned that’s what is good for the Triad often is not good for much of the board, and Vice versa.

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Imo, even if this storm trends more amped it looks like CAD regions are a near lock for frozen precip. Would just mean more sleet and freezing rain and less snow. I guess my point is the goal posts are pretty wide for a significant winter storm right now with respect to model shifts(for CAD regions)

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