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East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.


wdrag
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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

The moderators should collaborate and let me know if they want me to change the thread strategy. If they feel this is not of detrimental value, then they will let me know. Moderators: all yours. 

You are more than welcome to post whatever you feel is insightful and needed for our forum, you have obviously more than earned that here. 

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

The moderators should collaborate and let me know if they want me to change the thread strategy. If they feel this is not of detrimental value, then they will let me know. Moderators: all yours. 

Not at all.  This one didn't go our way but it certainly could have and no one would be complaining.    Leave it as it-we enjoy your thoughts and threads here as is....

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

The moderators should collaborate and let me know if they want me to change the thread strategy. If they feel this is not of detrimental value, then they will let me know. Moderators: all yours. 

Walt all of your contributions are very much appreciated by me. I am sure other members of the forum share the same sentiment. 

Keep posting....actually post more often!

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Okay, I understand Moderators general hands off.  Thank you all for your strong support.

I have a couple of goals in mind when threads are started. To ensure an impact storm occurs or is real close (ACY 10" 1/3 but bust up here),  and to highlight the accuracy (or inaccuracy) of the many different models physics up to 7 days in advance. Finally, that the impact will include NYC where snow and ice in winter is at a premium. If it's I84 only, I lay off.

Believe me: It takes plenty of time to figure things out and my time is also precious and so I definitely  do not want the membership to be torn away from family for just some weather, especially since so much can go wrong more than 60 hours in advance.

I am confident that the 1 day forecast accuracy when I was growing up in nw NJ in 1960 is now valid as accurate to 5 days in 2022.  To me, this is dedication of researchers and the financial support of platforms-computer power.  Like it or not, there is valuable information well in advance that can prepare the interested consumer to mitigate adverse impact be it winter storms, firestorms, hurricanes, 10+" rains.  Some of our posters are able to mine the gold and share some pretty cool stuff- we're fortunate to share these advance notice posts.

----

Will post Jan 21-23 open ended east coast storm thread-threat to likely (not categorically) followed by  coldest weather of the season around the 24th.  I think we're noticing each cold surge getting a little colder here in the northeast as the month proceeds. I see two more potentially big shots of cold air around here (24th), 27th)... dates fluid.  921A/16

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Okay, I understand Moderators general hands off.  Thank you all for your strong support.
I have a couple of goals in mind when threads are started. To ensure an impact storm occurs or is real close (ACY 10" 1/3 but bust up here),  and to highlight the accuracy (or inaccuracy) of the many different models physics up to 7 days in advance. Finally, that the impact will include NYC where snow and ice in winter is at a premium. If it's I84 only, I lay off.
Believe me: It takes plenty of time to figure things out and my time is also precious and so I definitely  do not want the membership to be torn away from family for just some weather, especially since so much can go wrong more than 60 hours in advance.
I am confident that the 1 day forecast accuracy when I was growing up in nw NJ in 1960 is now valid as accurate to 5 days in 2022.  To me, this is dedication of researchers and the financial support of platforms-computer power.  Like it or not, there is valuable information well in advance that can prepare the interested consumer to mitigate adverse impact be it winter storms, firestorms, hurricanes, 10+" rains.  Some of our posters are able to mine the gold and share some pretty cool stuff- we're fortunate to share these advance notice posts.
----
Will post Jan 21-23 open ended east coast storm thread-threat to likely (not categorically) followed by  coldest weather of the season around the 24th.  I think we're noticing each cold surge getting a little colder here in the northeast as the month proceeds. I see two more potentially big shots of cold air around here (24th), 27th)... dates fluid.  921A/16

I love your posts! It’s literally the reason why I check this forum from Thanksgiving through March.

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9 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Okay, I understand Moderators general hands off.  Thank you all for your strong support.

I have a couple of goals in mind when threads are started. To ensure an impact storm occurs or is real close (ACY 10" 1/3 but bust up here),  and to highlight the accuracy (or inaccuracy) of the many different models physics up to 7 days in advance. Finally, that the impact will include NYC where snow and ice in winter is at a premium. If it's I84 only, I lay off.

Believe me: It takes plenty of time to figure things out and my time is also precious and so I definitely  do not want the membership to be torn away from family for just some weather, especially since so much can go wrong more than 60 hours in advance.

I am confident that the 1 day forecast accuracy when I was growing up in nw NJ in 1960 is now valid as accurate to 5 days in 2022.  To me, this is dedication of researchers and the financial support of platforms-computer power.  Like it or not, there is valuable information well in advance that can prepare the interested consumer to mitigate adverse impact be it winter storms, firestorms, hurricanes, 10+" rains.  Some of our posters are able to mine the gold and share some pretty cool stuff- we're fortunate to share these advance notice posts.

----

Will post Jan 21-23 open ended east coast storm thread-threat to likely (not categorically) followed by  coldest weather of the season around the 24th.  I think we're noticing each cold surge getting a little colder here in the northeast as the month proceeds. I see two more potentially big shots of cold air around here (24th), 27th)... dates fluid.  921A/16

80ef1d66-60ee-4baf-8911-395cb90ad750_tex

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14 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Nothing showing on radar can anyone else confirm? I’m in Vermont and skipped out on snow removal based on it not snowing in the city 

It's very light, akin to drizzle (snizzle, if you will). I've observed here in central Queens, the dendrites are miniscule and almost float like dust. It's precipitating from a low cloud base, as advection drizzle would.

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20 minutes ago, wdrag said:

so I definitely  do not want the membership to be torn away from family for just some weather,

Heres the thing, Walt. If people wanted to get together on a weather forum to talk about partly cloudy and 45F, it's not anyone's prerogative to stop them. This  whole discussion is totally bizarre. Nobody agrees with the other guy, thanks for doing your thing.  

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22 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Okay, I understand Moderators general hands off.  Thank you all for your strong support.

I have a couple of goals in mind when threads are started. To ensure an impact storm occurs or is real close (ACY 10" 1/3 but bust up here),  and to highlight the accuracy (or inaccuracy) of the many different models physics up to 7 days in advance. Finally, that the impact will include NYC where snow and ice in winter is at a premium. If it's I84 only, I lay off.

Believe me: It takes plenty of time to figure things out and my time is also precious and so I definitely  do not want the membership to be torn away from family for just some weather, especially since so much can go wrong more than 60 hours in advance.

I am confident that the 1 day forecast accuracy when I was growing up in nw NJ in 1960 is now valid as accurate to 5 days in 2022.  To me, this is dedication of researchers and the financial support of platforms-computer power.  Like it or not, there is valuable information well in advance that can prepare the interested consumer to mitigate adverse impact be it winter storms, firestorms, hurricanes, 10+" rains.  Some of our posters are able to mine the gold and share some pretty cool stuff- we're fortunate to share these advance notice posts.

----

Will post Jan 21-23 open ended east coast storm thread-threat to likely (not categorically) followed by  coldest weather of the season around the 24th.  I think we're noticing each cold surge getting a little colder here in the northeast as the month proceeds. I see two more potentially big shots of cold air around here (24th), 27th)... dates fluid.  921A/16

I love your posts. There’s always something to learn from seeing the thinking and reading the insights of someone who is truly exceptional in his field.

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12 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Latest nam has nyc east gusting 40-50 by 10pm with a max of 70-80 during early Monday morning hours. Wild 

I was surprised Upton kept the HWW limited to eastern areas, I think most of the Island will verify criteria.

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@wdrag

Youre a large part of the reason I finally made an account after, literally, a decade of lurking here. There are a lot of posters here who really know their shit, and I love sitting here and absorbing the information, but when you start a thread I always take notice and so should everyone else. Thanks for everything. :clap:

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7 hours ago, nycsnow said:

Seems like latest nam brings 50+ wind gust nyc east for a longer duration now @bluewave

Yeah, the NAM gets the 925mb jet near 75 KT while the strong squall line is crossing the area. The record for January at OKX is very close to those levels. But the balloon launch will probably miss it since the peak winds will be before 12z. So it’s no surprise that the NAM has wind gusts in the 60-70 mph range from near NYC South Shore across Long Island. Some spots especially further east could even see higher gusts than that. 
 

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7E4FB977-2E16-456D-A849-EA93349C561B.thumb.jpeg.827172c74539c0745825185fcacdaa86.jpeg

 

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ConEd Alert: We're preparing for severe weather in your area tomorrow. If your power goes out, reply OUT to let us know, and we'll send you updates as restorations progress. Please stay away from downed wires. Reply STOP to opt out of all future outage msgs. Reply HELP for help

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2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

If people don’t like the thread they don’t need to read it or post in it.  People would’ve been posting for a week about this large strong storm regardless. 

I agree here. It is not the job of a poster - professional or otherwise - to be responsible for the behavior of persons who are gong to obsess over the storm. A thread is a thread and the more information we have, the better.

I don't want to pile on the original poster because I can understand the sentiment, however, to hold someone accountable for starting a legitimate thread due to other persons actions/behaviors is... Just no. 

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Okay, I understand Moderators general hands off.  Thank you all for your strong support.

I have a couple of goals in mind when threads are started. To ensure an impact storm occurs or is real close (ACY 10" 1/3 but bust up here),  and to highlight the accuracy (or inaccuracy) of the many different models physics up to 7 days in advance. Finally, that the impact will include NYC where snow and ice in winter is at a premium. If it's I84 only, I lay off.

Believe me: It takes plenty of time to figure things out and my time is also precious and so I definitely  do not want the membership to be torn away from family for just some weather, especially since so much can go wrong more than 60 hours in advance.

I am confident that the 1 day forecast accuracy when I was growing up in nw NJ in 1960 is now valid as accurate to 5 days in 2022.  To me, this is dedication of researchers and the financial support of platforms-computer power.  Like it or not, there is valuable information well in advance that can prepare the interested consumer to mitigate adverse impact be it winter storms, firestorms, hurricanes, 10+" rains.  Some of our posters are able to mine the gold and share some pretty cool stuff- we're fortunate to share these advance notice posts.

----

Will post Jan 21-23 open ended east coast storm thread-threat to likely (not categorically) followed by  coldest weather of the season around the 24th.  I think we're noticing each cold surge getting a little colder here in the northeast as the month proceeds. I see two more potentially big shots of cold air around here (24th), 27th)... dates fluid.  921A/16

You're an asset and treasure on this board. Keep the contributions coming!

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