Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.


wdrag
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, MJO812 said:

So the gfs will never change ? There is a reason why people say look at the ensembles in the mid to long range. 

I look at ensembles in the medium range. I look at op runs in the short range. Most meteorologists are slower to adjust than models. They also think they are smarter than the models.

  • Like 1
  • Confused 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would say advantage meteorologists who KNOW post-processed data known errors. Also, a slight advantage meteorologists who study the models, almost every cycle, learning biases, which may change every model iteration.

Meteorologists may rely too heavily on pattern recognition, not study the model detail or just too easily toss guidance that doesn't fit their expectations (disadvantage consumer-wishcasting).  That's where self control-realization that models are only as good as the data and the understanding of the model capability. (GFS handling of boundary layer temps or the NAM ability to sense warm layers aloft better than some other models) 

We have a whole lifetime to learn our own biases and make an effort to reduce those biases and see the primary guidance.

I also think some meteorologists may not understand FGEN-banding, and what drives the big precip (jet cores), or favorable patterns aloft for Cold Air Damming.

Also some meteorologists are probably not using all the available tools... TSections, Soundings to the forecast advantage, or hourly data platform information. 

Fortunately the models steady improvement raises the performance of all ships-forecasters

Humility is a best practice and knowing in advance that our attempts at forecasting reality will be in error, at least to some extent. 

 

  • Like 8
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I can understand... Wind advisory may suffice.  Not clear cut to me about warning level, and where tho I agree e LI looks best. 

Most models agree we are gusting to wind advisory criteria 8/9pm on but then gfs nam euro all show a window of 60-70mph 11pm-4am approx

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Most models agree we are gusting to wind advisory criteria 8/9pm on but then gfs nam euro all show a window of 60-70mph 11pm-4am approx

I dont see wind advisory criteria NYC til the 2A-5A time frame.   seems like gusts below 40 knots thru 1A. I could be wrong.  I checked HRRRX 80 meter winds and they don't reach 40 kt til 1A and the window of opportunity is about 3 hours, best around 2 or 3A. I can see G 50KT NYC but I would not forecast this. I think pressure falls will help concentrate the action as the storm occludes in e PA Monday morning.  Soundings don't look unstable to me for transfer. 

E LI I think best chance gust 50-55kt. 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m so disappointed in this storm. I was really looking forward to tracking this and seeing page after page of comments. I’ve been waiting all winter. Waiting for the next model run to see more and more snow but this is the exact opposite in every way.
 

It’s Just amazing that when the models go west it’s a lock, any other scenario they can’t handle it correctly until like 24 to 48 hours out. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

I’m so disappointed in this storm. I was really looking forward to tracking this and seeing page after page of comments. I’ve been waiting all winter. Waiting for the next model run to see more and more snow but this is the exact opposite in every way.
 

It’s Just amazing that when the models go west it’s a lock, any other scenario they can’t handle it correctly until like 24 to 48 hours out. 

yeah it stinks we aren’t getting the big one this time around but it just goes to show we cant live and die on the long range.  4 days ago this was a LI jackpot.  Winter is still young with more storms to track!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

I’m so disappointed in this storm. I was really looking forward to tracking this and seeing page after page of comments. I’ve been waiting all winter. Waiting for the next model run to see more and more snow but this is the exact opposite in every way.
 

It’s Just amazing that when the models go west it’s a lock, any other scenario they can’t handle it correctly until like 24 to 48 hours out. 

Thing is it’s continued trending west to where now most of upstate NY and PA are also shafted by the dry slot and mid level warmth. Essentially you have to be all the way west to I-77 in PA to have an all snow event and not worry about the dry slot. A couple of days ago it looked like it was good to I-81. Apps runners are rare but it looks like this one’ll do it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

yeah it stinks we aren’t getting the big one this time around but it just goes to show we cant live and die on the long range.  4 days ago this was a LI jackpot.  Winter is still young with more storms to track!

The northern stream screwed it for us. It’s diving down west of our storm and amping the flow way too much. It’s essentially being hooked due north by the northern stream diving in. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

I’m so disappointed in this storm. I was really looking forward to tracking this and seeing page after page of comments. I’ve been waiting all winter. Waiting for the next model run to see more and more snow but this is the exact opposite in every way.
 

It’s Just amazing that when the models go west it’s a lock, any other scenario they can’t handle it correctly until like 24 to 48 hours out. 

Its definitely been a frustrating storm to track but definitely not one of the worst, been pretty clear since about 5-6 days out this was not our storm. Anytime the models are showing a strong Miller A storm like this with precip type issues 5 days out you know you're in trouble. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not shocked the nws isn’t biting on the high winds. Those wind maps are grossly overdone. The wind will be a none event outside the beaches 
Agreed. The winds would have a much easier time mixing down in the afternoon as opposed to overnight

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

NAM basically says you have to be in the catskills to get more than an inch of snow. What a waste of cold air region wide. I can't remember an airmass this cold where there wasn't at least some front end snow for a large part of the subforum.   

December 1973 had that. 3" ice (literally skate-able in the backyard (I was in high school and skated between mine and a friend/neighbor's yards the day after), then three days in the teens-low twenties, then rain with no snow to start.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The northern stream screwed it for us. It’s diving down west of our storm and amping the flow way too much. It’s essentially being hooked due north by the northern stream diving in. 

why dont we have an arctic high pressing down from the north.....when you need one it's never around lol

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, JBG said:

December 1973 had that. 3" ice (literally skate-able in the backyard (I was in high school and skated between mine and a friend/neighbor's yards the day after), then three days in the teens-low twenties, then rain with no snow to start.

Jan 1994 had 2" of ice.

How long was the 12/73 event?  over 24 hours of all freezing rain?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Jan 1994 had 2" of ice.

How long was the 12/73 event?  over 24 hours of all freezing rain?

That was epic....all the soccer fields became ice hockey rinks.  We had 4 games going on all day all week until it started to get too gritty.  

Never saw anything like it since.  We had a solid 3 inches of ice out of that storm...on top of 10 inches of snow from a previous storm.....

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, scoobydoo1 said:

That was epic....all the soccer fields became ice hockey rinks.  We had 4 games going on all day all week until it started to get too gritty.  

Never saw anything like it since.  We had a solid 3 inches of ice out of that storm...on top of 10 inches of snow from a previous storm.....

the ironic thing is if you go by the snowfall totals from 1973-74 it doesn't stand out, but going by local reports, it was pretty good compared to the era.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Jan 1994 had 2" of ice.

How long was the 12/73 event?  over 24 hours of all freezing rain?

Just about. The snow started at about noon, kicked over to ZR around 2:30-3:00 p.m. and rained heavily for a while, at 23°-27°, then tapered off to freezing drizzle around 10:00 a.m. the next day, and ended as a tiny amount of snow, really flurries. If you want to check the news there was a Jets game that day and a truck plunged through the decking of the overhead West Side Highway, causing its permanent closure and ultimate demolition. Ironically DC stayed all snow and got something like 6"-8", but I was in suburban New York, not there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No change to this thread. Will replace with an OBS-NOWCAST thread around 11A.  I think the thread title suffices and 38+ pages of discussion notes all the elements, disappointments but I'm sure you'll be busy by 8PM with winter obs and then early Monday with the damaging wind e LI and wind advisory power outages elsewhere, heart attack snow-slush removal I84; then back side 0.1-1" snow showers 11A-11P Monday.  Something like that. Follow NWS statements-warnings (despite what I might suggest in my expectations). 

Il'l also begin the 21-22 thread around 8AM pending more review. No guarantees on that one but certainly potential in a strong baroclinic zone. Maybe ATL-ILM will get 4+"? and we miss? 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

No change to this thread. Will replace with an OBS-NOWCAST thread around 11A.  I think the thread title suffices and 38+ pages of discussion notes all the elements, disappointments but I'm sure you'll be busy by 8PM with winter obs and then early Monday with the damaging wind e LI and wind advisory power outages elsewhere, heart attack snow-slush removal I84; then back side 0.1-1" snow showers 11A-11P Monday.  Something like that. Follow NWS statements-warnings (despite what I might suggest in my expectations). 

Il'l also begin the 21-22 thread around 8AM pending more review. No guarantees on that one but certainly potential in a strong baroclinic zone. Maybe ATL-ILM will get 4+"? and we miss? 

Just an opinion…and a humble one at that

 

You should hold off on these threads a bit.

 

38 pages. Guys are staying up all night looking at runs. Building up this big thing for something thats been nothing for a while.

 

Again, just a humble opinion…I dont think these side week-long threads are healthy for the forum or the posters

 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Rjay unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...