East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[NittanyWx]

 

14 minutes ago, Irishmick9 said:

Winter Storm Watch up for us in Sussex County. 5-7 inches of snow before changing to mixed precip. Pretty bullish by My Holly.

Think I'd be taking the unders there given trends today.  I know what they're thinking with the easterly fetch, but the mid levels always seem to warm quicker than progged.

 

I also don't get the 7" in Monticello, seems very high. 

[EasternLI]

I'm actually still pretty interested in this. Even with no shot of snow IMBY. It's still going to be an anomalous storm system. The wind aspect is a bit troubling if it can mix down efficiently. I hope you folks in the interior can get some front end snow out of it though too. Even though the setup is, let's say, less than ideal.

[SnoSki14]

Models are showing stronger phasing as we get closer which leads to a stronger storm getting tugged further west. 

It could be one of those rare times where winds are under forecast and HWW verify. 

[wdrag]

Tomorrow morning what watches will post, will be out and and then i can make any headline adjustment at that time.  Have a good night.  Walt

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models are showing stronger phasing as we get closer which leads to a stronger storm getting tugged further west. 

It could be one of those rare times where winds are under forecast and HWW verify. 

Pretty significant costal flooding even t is on table as well depending on timing 

[NittanyWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You can see why the models have such strong wind gusts. The NAM forecast soundings have winds over 70 mph just a few hundred feet above the surface near the coast. Even stronger winds above that. 

 

 

I'm thinking the inversion holds north of the Island but I don't feel great about it.

 

This isn't good for LI.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Pretty significant costal flooding even t is on table as well depending on timing 

It's not the snowstorm people want but should be a notable event nonetheless. 

In fact a more phased, western storm would result in a better pattern for the next storm. Heights are trending higher in NAO region.

[EasternLI]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models are showing stronger phasing as we get closer which leads to a stronger storm getting tugged further west. 

It could be one of those rare times where winds are under forecast and HWW verify. 

That trailing vort has been trending stronger. That's going to be something to watch on models over the weekend. How that plays out. 

[lee59]

Maybe Long Island will go from single digits Sunday morning to 50s Monday morning.

[nycsnow]

Gfs consistent with the 60-70mph gust up the jersey shore through nyc and then east 

[EastonSN+]

I will be EXTREMELY PO'D if after all this all I get is a power outage to deal with.

[North and West]

I will be EXTREMELY PO'D if after all this all I get is a power outage to deal with.

JCP&L has trucks out in Morris County, so they’re ready.


.

[LoboLeader1]

I would rather deal with the wind (backup generator in place) as opposed to the rain. The ground is rock hard here.  

[snywx]

34 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

 

Think I'd be taking the unders there given trends today.  I know what they're thinking with the easterly fetch, but the mid levels always seem to warm quicker than progged.

 

I also don't get the 7" in Monticello, seems very high. 

Agreed.. I’m not even thinking 5-7” Imby and I’m directly N of Sussex in western Orange. 5-7” seems much more likely for Monticello 

[sussexcountyobs]

19 minutes ago, North and West said:

JCP&L has trucks out in Morris County, so they’re ready.


.

JCP&L is never ready. They're the worst.

[NittanyWx]

10 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

JCP&L is never ready. They're the worst.

I'll raise you one with Eversource up here in Connecticut.

[ForestHillWx]

Temps dropping like a rock now. Projected low of 9 tonight 3 tomorrow. Should be neat going from a 3 degree low to a Rainer in less than 24. 

[USCG RS]

7 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

I'll raise you one with Eversource up here in Connecticut.

And PSEG.

[EasternLI]

Eversourse takes the cake. Easily. I've spent some time in connecticut. 

[USCG RS]

9 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Eversourse takes the cake. Easily. I've spent some time in connecticut. 

Sounds like they need a good Emergency Manager....

[EasternLI]

3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Sounds like they need a good Emergency Manager....

They definitely need something lol

[sussexcountyobs]

27 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

I'll raise you one with Eversource up here in Connecticut.

Never heard of them? But if they're worse than JCP&L, God bless you.

[jm1220]

55 minutes ago, snywx said:

Agreed.. I’m not even thinking 5-7” Imby and I’m directly N of Sussex in western Orange. 5-7” seems much more likely for Monticello 

Even central PA on most models has a big chunk of the storm as sleet or ZR now. That warm mid level SE flow is no joke and it seems to really show up the closer in you get on the models. Maybe the occlusion starts helping places N of I-84 but it looks dicey. 

[NittanyWx]

35 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Sounds like they need a good Emergency Manager....

 

They need to be broken up and sold for parts.  As does PURA up here in CT.

[jm1220]

21 minutes ago, VideoBufferMX said:

This will be like a TS going thru. 

Where those 850mb winds suddenly die down in W PA and NY near BUF/ROC/ERI will get slammed with heavy snow as a result of that. All that fast easterly flow will rise straight up where that sudden die off happens. 

[sussexcountyobs]

After reading 100's of posts on the models for this storm turning into a wind and rain storm for my area, why has Mt. Holly posted a WSWatch for 4-8" of snow? Are they seeing something different? I don't know how decipher models and such. I don't get it? Are they just covering their ass for now, and will change it tomorrow once they're more sure what will happen?

[the_other_guy]

8 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

After reading 100's of posts on the models for this storm turning into a wind and rain storm for my area, why has Mt. Holly posted a WSWatch for 4-8" of snow? Are they seeing something different? I don't know how decipher models and such. I don't get it? Are they just covering their ass for now, and will change it tomorrow once they're more sure what will happen?

I asked the same thing.

There is a disconnect somewhere

[NittanyWx]

I dont want to speak for the guys at Mt. Holly or OKX, but I think they're waiting to see the northern stream piece sampled by our upper air network first given its importance to how far inland the low tracks.  That's the only thing I can think of at this point.

 

 

[larrye]

8 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

I asked the same thing.

There is a disconnect somewhere

Some Met named Mike Masco has been tweeting about CAD and saying that the models aren't picking it up.

[sussexcountyobs]

4 minutes ago, larrye said:

Some Met named Mike Masco has been tweeting about CAD and saying that the models aren't picking it up.

But wouldn't CAD, with such a warm se-east wind in the mid levels be more indicative of freezing rain or sleet, not snow?