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East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.


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Just now, jm1220 said:

Those snow maps are likely showing a lot of sleet as snow until you're well north in New England or west in PA/NY. The mid level low tracks are horrible- winds at mid levels are out of the E/SE and strengthening. And the GFS usually doesn't see the mid level warming soon enough. NAM is better with that which we'll see a few runs from now (if the overall setup doesn't improve). I've gotten burned numerous times with seeing big snow totals on maps with bad mid level low tracks. It'll change over way sooner than it thinks now.

Very little sleet with this storm and the thermal profile most likely, either rain, snow, or no for 95% of the precip

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Those snow maps are likely showing a lot of sleet as snow until you're well north in New England or west in PA/NY. The mid level low tracks are horrible- winds at mid levels are out of the E/SE and strengthening. And the GFS usually doesn't see the mid level warming soon enough. NAM is better with that which we'll see a few runs from now (if the overall setup doesn't improve). I've gotten burned numerous times with seeing big snow totals on maps with bad mid level low tracks. It'll change over way sooner than it thinks now.

I learned my lesson a long time ago to expect a sleet change over much sooner than forecasted. Will never make that mistake again to underestimate mid level warming. 

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If this thing were headed out to sea and we were relying on some complex interaction to suck it back to us it would never happen no matter what any model said.  There was a situation years ago now, I think a March storm, where that was the set up.  All the models said it would happen, and it didn't at least at our latitude.  Predicted big snows ended up a few inches of mess.

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2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

I learned my lesson a long time ago to expect a sleet change over much sooner than forecasted. Will never make that mistake again to underestimate mid level warming. 

With this map at 850mb you aren't staying snow for very long in this subforum. It shows 70-80 knot ESE flow at that level. 700mb shows 60-70 knot SE winds. That warms mid levels in a hurry. I don't think it rains well inland, like near I-84 but prepare for a letdown if this happens and you're expecting much snow. 

850wh.us_ne.png

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

With this map at 850mb you aren't staying snow for very long in this subforum. It shows 70-80 knot ESE flow at that level. 700mb shows 60-70 knot SE winds. That warms mid levels in a hurry. I don't think it rains well inland, like near I-84 but prepare for a letdown if this happens and you're expecting much snow. 

850wh.us_ne.png

 

7bfdce41-0cdb-4213-b42a-125bc1f65608.gif

042c8ec5-073b-4a76-a030-bfc6bdfdaedf.gif

b1abbcf3-6cff-4f05-9cff-3484667b0fe6.gif

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20 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Those snow maps are likely showing a lot of sleet as snow until you're well north in New England or west in PA/NY. The mid level low tracks are horrible- winds at mid levels are out of the E/SE and strengthening. And the GFS usually doesn't see the mid level warming soon enough. NAM is better with that which we'll see a few runs from now (if the overall setup doesn't improve). I've gotten burned numerous times with seeing big snow totals on maps with bad mid level low tracks. It'll change over way sooner than it thinks now.

Lee Goldberg is going with 1-3 inches for NYC to start which is quite likely since it will be really cold before the storm. Hopefully we can hold on to the cold air longer than modeled. It has happened many times in the past. Even so , the winds will be wicked with this storm.

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Lee Goldberg is going with 1-3 inches for NYC to start which is quite likely since it will be really cold before the storm. Hopefully we can hold on to the cold air longer than modeled. It has happened many times in the past. Even so , the winds will be wicked with this storm.

Yes but says those numbers could change and be higher at the coast.

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34 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

For who? Not for Long Island or most of NYC but it's snow once you get 15 miles inland. Check the soundings. Doesn't flip over till the end.

It's true soundings support snow for much of the event NW of NYC. And that would be a heck of a thump. But I gotta suspect somewhere around 800-850 goes above freezing and a lot of it ends up sleet or ZR. But it definitely could produce warning snows well north and west.

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6 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Lee Goldberg still thinks the path will be adjusted more southeast and could give significant snow even at the coast. It looks to me the path of the GFS is a little strange with the north and then east and then north. I think you can straighten that path out and bring it closer to the coast.

I have no idea what Lee is looking at to be honest.  There's just nothing to force this storm to our SE. 

The gfs is transferring to the coast.  So, sure, it could end up transferring over the BM but by then the damage is done to mid levels and the surface.  Plus the storm is flying. 

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13 minutes ago, wxman said:

If this thing were headed out to sea and we were relying on some complex interaction to suck it back to us it would never happen no matter what any model said.  There was a situation years ago now, I think a March storm, where that was the set up.  All the models said it would happen, and it didn't at least at our latitude.  Predicted big snows ended up a few inches of mess.

 

Checked my archives, the above refers to March 4-6 2001.  Biggest bust I can recall, 1 to 2 feet had been forecast.  This was from the winter storm discussion, only problem is the storm was not captured, it scooted right by our latitude:

LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED NEAR NEW ORLEANS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF OF 
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AROUND THE VIRGINIA CAPES ON MONDAY MORNING.
THE STORM IS THEN EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT REMAINS OVER THE 
COASTAL WATERS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
THE STORM IS ANTICIPATED TO FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA ON 
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
 
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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Even there with the track of the storm I bet it flips to sleet/rain much quicker than forecast-screaming E/ESE winds there eventually too

We'll prob have a better idea about precip types and changeover times when the NAM gets in range.   

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Just now, mikem81 said:

Quick Poll:

If I am taking my kids somewhere on Sunday Night/Monday to see good snows; what is best within 100 miles of NYC?

Probably Sullivan County NY like Liberty/Monticello.  Certainly could do High Point/Port Jervis/NERN Wayne Co PA as well.  If we get more of a west shift of mid-level lows though might need to be closer to BGM

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32 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

With this map at 850mb you aren't staying snow for very long in this subforum. It shows 70-80 knot ESE flow at that level. 700mb shows 60-70 knot SE winds. That warms mid levels in a hurry. I don't think it rains well inland, like near I-84 but prepare for a letdown if this happens and you're expecting much snow. 

850wh.us_ne.png

Only expecting a few inches at best up here 

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4 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Quick Poll:

If I am taking my kids somewhere on Sunday Night/Monday to see good snows; what is best within 100 miles of NYC?

Without thinking about it too much I'd vote eastern Catskills (e.g., Hunter) or Mt. Pocono, PA as a backup. Long drives though.

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21 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Lee Goldberg still thinks the path will be adjusted more southeast and could give significant snow even at the coast. It looks to me the path of the GFS is a little strange with the north and then east and then north. I think you can straighten that path out and bring it closer to the coast.

Which model is suggesting a path SE of what most are showing, that he can say that?

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Probably Sullivan County NY like Liberty/Monticello.  Certainly could do High Point/Port Jervis/NERN Wayne Co PA as well.  If we get more of a west shift of mid-level lows though might need to be closer to BGM

At first I was thinking Sullivan along 17 too. But some guidance is showing shadowing there with such a strong easterly flow. Areas along the eastern edge of terrain should do better.

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