East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[eduggs]

The 18z NAM is UGLY. Can't buy a positive trend. The inland track is well entrenched. 

[rclab]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It got hard. Really hard :-)

Good afternoon S19. Forget ‘It’. What about you? As always  …

43 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

how hard were the impact tremors when you typed this?

 

[NJwx85]

The fact that the 18z NAM has the low centered over DC at hr 84 is a good sign. It's normally way overamped at that range. I would be worried if it showed the low near Pittsburg but this has last minute shift Southeast written all over it. 

Quick thump over to a mix/rain along the immediate coast then dry slot.

Further inland, longer thump and then eventual mixing/dry slot.

This is an old fashioned North and West of 287 snowstorm, but still likely at least a solid 6 hour front end thump for the city.

 

[mikem81]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The fact that the 18z NAM has the low centered over DC at hr 84 is a good sign. It's normally way overamped at that range. I would be worried if it showed the low near Pittsburg but this has last minute shift Southeast written all over it. 

Quick thump over to a mix/rain along the immediate coast then dry slot.

Further inland, longer thump and then eventual mixing/dry slot.

This is an old fashioned North and West of 287 snowstorm, but still likely at least a solid 6 hour front end thump for the city.

 

I hope you are correct as some of these models show very little snow anywhere close to the area... At least in prior years I was able to take my kids to Rockland to enjoy the storms.

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The fact that the 18z NAM has the low centered over DC at hr 84 is a good sign. It's normally way overamped at that range. I would be worried if it showed the low near Pittsburg but this has last minute shift Southeast written all over it. 

Quick thump over to a mix/rain along the immediate coast then dry slot.

Further inland, longer thump and then eventual mixing/dry slot.

This is an old fashioned North and West of 287 snowstorm, but still likely at least a solid 6 hour front end thump for the city.

 

The NAM already looked unfavorable at hr 48. The progression from that point looks fairly reasonable. All guidance is in pretty good agreement. 

[Rjay]

10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The fact that the 18z NAM has the low centered over DC at hr 84 is a good sign. It's normally way overamped at that range. I would be worried if it showed the low near Pittsburg but this has last minute shift Southeast written all over it. 

Quick thump over to a mix/rain along the immediate coast then dry slot.

Further inland, longer thump and then eventual mixing/dry slot.

This is an old fashioned North and West of 287 snowstorm, but still likely at least a solid 6 hour front end thump for the city.

 

Welcome back.  This storm is a Buffalo crusher imo.  

[Parsley]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Welcome back.  

Thanks.

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I’d call it a win here to see an hour of snow before rain. Although if it gets washed away anyway I don’t really care. The main story here will be coastal flooding as Rjay mentioned. Some of the back bays and usual spots could get dicey. 

Inland that can hold onto the cold air will see a couple hours of snow then a ton of sleet. Probably a few inches of mess by the end. You’ll really want to be far west in upstate NY or PA to get much snow.

For me a win is any accumulating snow even an inch. Thats how not good I feel about this setup even though Im slightly NW of I95. Still time for changes but not likely. 

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Its funny how people weenie me but they know I'm right. We had a storm back in 2007 where the models kept sending up a storm which was shown rain but it stayed as snow and sleet.

I mean anything can happen but we have to predict based off what seems most likely to happen. Each model run showing the same thing basically narrows down the cone of uncertainity.  There is always going to be an outlier storm with a big surprise but usually a storm hammering Western NY within 96 hours is not trending to a storm for us. At this point I'd say it's like 75% a non event for NYC Metro by tomorrow if the models don't change it's like 95%.

[NJwx85]

19 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Welcome back.  This storm is a Buffalo crusher imo.  

Thanks. Family and work occupy most of my time these days but it's still fun to come on here when something significant is on the table.

The recent trends from the GFS has been promising. Don't see anyone around here getting into double digit snowfall but this could easily be the biggest event so far this season for many.

 

[HVSnowLover]

On a positive note at least the pattern is still fast flow and we are not missing out on an absolute monster, this is even 12-18 inches in the jackpot zone which isn't that high for a storm of this intensity. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

On a positive note at least the pattern is still fast flow and we are not missing out on an absolute monster, this is even 12-18 inches in the jackpot zone which isn't that high for a storm of this intensity. 

It's way better than we we have gotten 

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, MJO812 said:

It's way better than we we have gotten 

We got a storm like that last winter, there will be more opportunities. 

[mattinpa]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

It's way better than we we have gotten 

Above 2.5 inches would be my biggest of the winter. Can you explain what is making the storm hook back west? Is it lack of a blocking high? Thanks MJO.

[NJwx85]

Very little change so far with the 18z GFS through 00z Monday.

[HVSnowLover]

GFS might be slighty better at least in terms of front end snow but have to see run play out.

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

Above 2.5 inches would be my biggest of the winter. Can you explain what is making the storm hook back west? Is it lack of a blocking high? Thanks MJO.

gets captured/phases within incoming energy diving in from the great lakes

[White Gorilla]

16 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

On a positive note at least the pattern is still fast flow and we are not missing out on an absolute monster, this is even 12-18 inches in the jackpot zone which isn't that high for a storm of this intensity. 

Remember last December 17 2020 when a coastal storm way over performed for the Binghamton, NY area?  They were only progged at 12-18 but they received 30-40 inches, what many attributed to higher SSTs and moisture influx.  

[jm1220]

NAM actually is very amped. Maybe not as super amped as it can be but it's amped enough to change everyone east of the Allegheny spine in PA to sleet and dry slot, as the deform axis/heavy snow is over OH. 

[HVSnowLover]

The GFS is actually a pretty big improvement if you want a frozen event north of the city with the secondary now south of LI.

[NJwx85]

Quick dry slot this run.

About 12 hours of front end snow followed by dry slot as the low jumps from near DC to the benchmark.

It almost looks like a late developing miller B.

Need the mid level centers to pass offshore to have a chance at the back end CCB.

[psv88]

37 minutes ago, Parsley said:

Thanks.

Parsley!!

[NittanyWx]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Quick dry slot this run.

About 12 hours of front end snow followed by dry slot as the low jumps from near DC to the benchmark.

It almost looks like a late developing miller B.

Need the mid level centers to pass offshore to have a chance at the back end CCB.

 

That ain't snow bud.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

The GFS is actually a pretty big improvement if you want a frozen event north of the city with the secondary now south of LI.

I wonder how much of the low level warming would be mitigated by strong dynamics in this setup.

Either way by the time it gets warm enough for rain most of the precip has already fallen unless you're on the immediate coast.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

 

That ain't snow bud.

For who? Not for Long Island or most of NYC but it's snow once you get 15 miles inland. Check the soundings. Doesn't flip over till the end.

[the_other_guy]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's way better than we we have gotten 

You literally had a major snowstorm less than a week ago

[NittanyWx]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

For who? Not for Long Island or most of NYC but it's snow once you get 15 miles inland. Check the soundings. Doesn't flip over till the end.

I know exactly what I'm looking at and that's flipping over to sleet regardless of whether you're 15 miles inland or not.  You have a screaming SE fetch at the surface and mid-levels.  That type of track is not producing 12 hours of 'snow' 15 miles inland.

[Northof78]

Insance cut-off right around Rt.78 or the Raritan River between C-1" and 6"+

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Insance cut-off right around Rt.78 or the Raritan River between C-1" and 6"+

I keep telling you guys to be careful with the weenie snow maps with this storm.  

[jm1220]

Just now, Northof78 said:

Insance cut-off right around Rt.78 or the Raritan River between C-1" and 6"+

Those snow maps are likely showing a lot of sleet as snow until you're well north in New England or west in PA/NY. The mid level low tracks are horrible- winds at mid levels are out of the E/SE and strengthening. And the GFS usually doesn't see the mid level warming soon enough. NAM is better with that which we'll see a few runs from now (if the overall setup doesn't improve). I've gotten burned numerous times with seeing big snow totals on maps with bad mid level low tracks. It'll change over way sooner than it thinks now.