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Upstate/Eastern New York- Jan 9-11 Lake Effect Snow Event


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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

If I lived off Ontario I would have to pick a spot that got hit with bands like that. I couldn't do the NW transient flow bands. 

Our bands are the worst. Of the 20 winters I’ve lived on the south shore we’ve had like 2 good years for lake effect. Pure lake effect that is. Which is why I live and die on that synoptic hill. 

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5 minutes ago, vortmax said:
Tonight
Snow before 2am, then snow showers likely after 2am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow before 2am. Low around 5. Wind chill values as low as -10. Blustery, with a northwest wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Not sure i buy it. Could definitely see 2 to 4. 

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7 minutes ago, vortmax said:
Tonight
Snow before 2am, then snow showers likely after 2am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow before 2am. Low around 5. Wind chill values as low as -10. Blustery, with a northwest wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

I have no idea what they are looking at for those accumulations. 

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6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Just north of me now, can see clearing to the south, light snow overhead.. Band should be back in business around 6-7pm for the finale..

WUNIDS_map - 2022-01-10T160653.492.gif

 And don't be surprised if the heaviest snow will be on the northern edge of the band when it does move through you. A lot of times the vertical circulation structure as it's getting shoved by a front, will tilt it such a way that the heaviest snow will fall in the northern part of the band.

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21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

If I lived off Ontario I would have to pick a spot that got hit with bands like that. I couldn't do the NW transient flow bands. I'd rather get 1-2 big boy events than 10-12 small events. 

I would have headed up today but been in work conferences all day.

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56 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

After looking at models I think the band will be in our area around 8 PM. At the rate it will be moving south I don’t expect it to be over us more than an hour. Plus once it falls off the lake it will fall apart quickly. I don’t see us getting the 6 inches you’re forecasting. I’m thinking 1-2 inches max. 

Don't these southward moves typically take longer than models predict with these strong single bands?  I def recall that they tend to "hang up" and tilt SW-NE with the more inland portion of the band adding to the lag time.  Pretty sure Lake Effect King mentioned this earlier in the thread.

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