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Upstate/Eastern New York- Jan 9-11 Lake Effect Snow Event


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19 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

2A4EFD2A-95F3-4592-9F38-7976AF4690C7.thumb.png.dcdd0bd2fa8e480016cdfb5f09315491.pngLook at the intensity of the band just north of you around Perth. It’s only about 3-4 miles wide but is probably producing 1-2 inches per hour. I assume you’re south of that. Just like me it’s very frustrating to be a spectator in a front row seat.

That band makes it all the way to NE CT. Pretty cool.

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5 hours ago, Blue Moon said:

We're rocking right now in Oswego!

Btw, question for y'all: although the temp profile is below freezing from the CL to surface where I am, I have received all graupel so far. Is this because the wind is blowing graupel onshore from the lake nearby? I'm just a half mile from the lake, so it makes some sense to me if the sfc. temp above the lake is above freezing and graupel is what's falling there.

 

Thanks!

I think the convective nature of lake effect causes a lot of vertical mixing within the cloud as strong updrafts cycle snow that is currently falling back up into the portion of the cloud where water is condensing and snow is forming. The combination of these strong updrafts smashing snowflakes together along with a lot of Latent heat release eventually forms the graupel pellets.  That’s just my guess at least. I always see graupel in the really heavy bands though, including last week in Buffalo 

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..A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT PARTS OF JEFFERSON...OSWEGO...
LEWIS...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES...

HAZARDS...A band of heavy snow which can rapidly reduce visibility to
less than a quarter of a mile. This band of heavy snow is producing
extremely heavy snow at the rate of 2 to 3 inches per hour.

LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...a band of heavy snow was located north of
Central Square and oriented west to east across the northern portion
of Oswego county. This band of heavy snow will slowly drift a bit
further north across Oswego county this morning. Expected snow
covered roadways and difficult driving conditions, especially if
traveling on I-81 from Parish to Mannsville.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Oswego, Fulton, Sandy Island Beach State Park, Fair Haven Beach
State Park, Pulaski, Central Square, Redfield, Selkirk Shores State
Park, Highmarket, Mexico Point State Park, Nine Mile Point, Battle
Island State Park, Hastings, Scriba, Volney, Richland, Constantia,
West Monroe, Palermo and New Haven.

This includes Interstate 81 between exits 32 and 40.
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Yeah I'm thinking the rgem was to far north with the strong banding, obviously still early..I noticed the WPC has the highest probabilities of 12+ north of me now which is doubtful imo..By the time it gets there (if it does)it will be headed right back south lol Imby it has been more of a hit and miss so far..

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1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Yeah I'm thinking the rgem was to far north with the strong banding, obviously still early..I noticed the WPC has the highest probabilities of 12+ north of me now which is doubtful imo..By the time it gets there (if it does)it will be headed right back south lol Imby it has been more of a hit and miss so far..

 I think this gets up your way around noon unknown. And I think the rates will only continue to increase as the frontal system approaches.  You may get 12 to 16" of snow in short order!!!

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8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Yeah I'm thinking the rgem was to far north with the strong banding, obviously still early..I noticed the WPC has the highest probabilities of 12+ north of me now which is doubtful imo..By the time it gets there (if it does)it will be headed right back south lol Imby it has been more of a hit and miss so far..

Would think it lifts north a bit. Incoming arctic front diving down with trough should back flow a bit more wsw briefly before going south again as torugh gets close then goes over head 

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21 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

The band looks way more cellular than I was expecting. Certainly doesn’t seem like any insane rates going on in there. Anyone have a reason for this? Maybe winds too strong? 

I was thinking the same honestly but didn’t want to say anything since I’m relatively new to the lake effect game. Was expecting a more consolidated band. This one looks like it are rice krispy treats 

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Lake induced equilibrium levels will rise to over 10K feet today as
the core of coldest air aloft moves in. Synoptic scale moisture will
steadily deepen, especially this afternoon and early evening with
the approach of a strong shortwave. The boundary layer beneath the
inversion will feature a deep favorable thermodynamic environment
for large dendrites, with snow:water ratios of better than 20:1 in
the band.

 

Expect snowfall rates of 3 inches per hour within this band,
especially this afternoon into this evening when there will be
convergence and the greatest convective cloud depth. While this will
be a very cold airmass...the deep convective depth inferred by the
cap rising to 10-15kft will offer an excellent environment for
charge separation. In other words...the intense band will likely
become electrified. Research has shown that while a more shallow
mixed phase layer (low -10c level) works against sufficient graupel
production to induce a charge...there is also evidence that strong
winds within a very cold airmass will lead to ice
splintering/fracturing that aids in charge production. This is not
contrary to electrification with moisture and silica in eruptions.
The greatest chance for lightning within the band will come Monday
and Monday into Monday evening when convergence will be strongest
and the convective cloud depth will be the greatest. Keep in mind
that such lightning is TYPICALLY within 20-25 miles of the source of
instability...so it is not expected for the lightning to get as far
inland as the Black River valley.
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