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Hilarious forecast


LVwxHistorian
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The day before the Blizzard of 96 -- "it will not be a significant event in the Allentown area," and "even for Philadelphia it doesn't look like it will be a terribly heavy snowfall" -- then 25" to 35", LOL!

 

Why would a meteorologist ever say something like that given the complete unpredictability of the weather -- heck the mathematical term "chaos" even came about by studying the weather!!! 

The_Morning_Call_Sat__Jan_6__1996_.jpg.5c00338af00c9f2854ac7a419cd70ccc.thumb.jpg.2dbe4efa3484f70b8cbe4fc8bcded131.jpg

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8 minutes ago, MGorse said:

This was from ‘96! Was this post necessary? And from experience, reporters do not always get the quotes correct. 

That's actually part of my point, 96 wasn't that long ago!!!!  

 And I really don't think a reporter would mess up quotes to the point of misrepresenting what the person said, do you?  Was he trying to say that we were going to get a big storm and it came out this way?!     

I don't think so -- it was just a horrible forecast, and I remember it vividly!!!

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6 minutes ago, MGorse said:

This was from ‘96! Was this post necessary? And from experience, reporters do not always get the quotes correct. 

As I recall, it was the classic miss-to-the-south by the models. It was only late that Friday/Saturday morning that the NW shift began. Even then, it was king of slow. First DC could get in on it, then us, then NYC, etc. So I imagine the interview took place when the models were still showing the OTS solution.

 

And YES! Who can pass up carpet at those prices?? THEY'RE INSANE :lmao:

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1 minute ago, LVwxHistorian said:

I'm not, I'm just questioning what we're paying these people a lot of money to do -- get extremely important forecasts completely wrong??!!!!

If you don't know just say you don't know, but don't make the completely incorrect forecast!!!!

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Just now, LVwxHistorian said:

I'm not, I'm just questioning what we're paying these people a lot of money to do -- get extremely important forecasts completely wrong??!!!!

lmao.  They're government employees, they don't make that much money.  Way too little, actually.  It's public information.  I'm guessing you really don't know too much about meteorology....or any science for that matter.   

Food for the troll ends here.  Enjoy.  

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3 minutes ago, BBasile said:

lmao.  They're government employees, they don't make that much money.  Way too little, actually.  It's public information.  I'm guessing you really don't know too much about meteorology....or any science for that matter.   

Food for the troll ends here.  Enjoy.  

Actually, I'm getting a masters in ATMO right now!!  And want to be a forecaster, so I'm telling you what I would have said, and what every good forecaster should say, instead of painting yourself into a corner.   And they make very good $$, 70 to 100k  

  Their forecasts are very important, for commerce, people in general.  People lost their lives directly because of this botched forecast!!!  What are you talking about?!!

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I am more concerned that what happened back in 96 really still has not changed for the Morning Call as they are dismal at best at any weather forecasting- always late and never enough important info as it relates to actual storm progression.  They realized this several years go as readers have left in droves and MC has gone to Empire forecasting for their weather forecasting needs.

What ever happened to trusting Mt Holly and the NWS?  If I was running the show at MC, I would have direct links to the Mt Holly site from the MC site and to all of my subscribers and encourage these subscribers  to use those links in order to  have constant weather warning updates. I would make my reporters read and request help from the pro's at Mt Holly to understand the weather discussion, especially for each posted storm synopsis .

 

Mt Holly does an excellent job of this. This going to a private service is hogwash for MC as they are providing ad space  for the private consultants for terms of service to use their name recognition to appear they know what the hell they are doing better than the NWS.  Mike Gorse you are spot on with your opinions. Thanks

 

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2 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

I am more concerned that what happened back in 96 really still has not changed for the Morning Call as they are dismal at best at any weather forecasting- always late and never enough important info as it relates to actual storm progression.  They realized this several years go as readers have left in droves and MC has gone to Empire forecasting for their weather forecasting needs.

What ever happened to trusting Mt Holly and the NWS?  If I was running the show at MC, I would have direct links to the Mt Holly site from the MC site and to all of my subscribers and encourage these subscribers  to use those links in order to  have constant weather warning updates. I would make my reporters read and request help from the pro's at Mt Holly to understand the weather discussion, especially for each posted storm synopsis .

 

Mt Holly does an excellent job of this. This going to a private service is hogwash for MC as they are providing ad space  for the private consultants for terms of service to use their name recognition to appear they know what the hell they are doing better than the NWS.  Mike Gorse you are spot on with your opinions. Thanks

 

I have no idea about the Morning Call, being from South Jersey, but I don't use anybody but the NWS.  I don't even use any info from the mets, or weathercasters, at the locals news stations.  Haven't seen them in years.  I direct everybody I meet to use the NWS as they have the only mets I trust.  There's a reason every met, regardless of their employer, reads the AFD.  

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2 hours ago, LVwxHistorian said:

That's actually part of my point, 96 wasn't that long ago!!!!  

 And I really don't think a reporter would mess up quotes to the point of misrepresenting what the person said, do you?  Was he trying to say that we were going to get a big storm and it came out this way?!     

I don't think so -- it was just a horrible forecast, and I remember it vividly!!!

You are wrong! I have been misquoted in the newspapers over the years as has some of my coworkers. It does happen! Not often but it does. I am not saying this ‘96 article was a misquote but it does indeed happen. 

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2 hours ago, LVwxHistorian said:

I mean I can see how they botched the Blizzard of 1888 forecast, but 1996 -- the day before!! Come on!!!!!!

Meteorology is not a perfect science! Many advancements have been made, but there will always be weather events that are just not forecast quite right. 

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2 hours ago, LVwxHistorian said:

I'm not, I'm just questioning what we're paying these people a lot of money to do -- get extremely important forecasts completely wrong??!!!!

You just highlighted one forecast source with that article, no? Come on! 

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