OBS and nowcast for a widespread 2-6" event significant impact event, mainly midnight-Noon Friday morning January 7, 2022

[eduggs]

8 minutes ago, uncle W said:

5.5" from 0.33" LE here...

This is an example of underperforming the model consensus QPF. But the favorable snow to liquid ratios made up for it. Locally, I'm not sure many places significantly overperformed the modeled QPF. It looks like the ratios were a little higher than expected in the heaviest bands.

[Jt17]

An official nws obs at 7:00am at LGA for 8.4 inches while it was still snowing pretty good... is quite the over performance no matter how you cut it. 3-5 inch was the overwhelming prediction on just about every outlet. Seems like while we had a pretty strong consensus of .4-.5 liquid equivalent precipitation, but everybody has been burned too much by estimating ratios in the past, even if this storm screamed higher ratio snows. If they had gone with higher ratio snow idea we prob would have been in a WSW instead of a ww advisory for NYC and it would have been appropriate, because nearly 9 inches in a 7 hour period of snow is not advisory level stuff. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

Well at least the winter won't be a shutout now.

But I read it was over last month. 

[eduggs]

If this had come in with the standard 10:1 ratios, a lot of people would probably be disappointed with the 2-5" snowfall regionwide.

[jm1220]

Just now, eduggs said:

If this had come in with the standard 10:1 ratios, a lot of people would probably be disappointed with the 2-5" snowfall regionwide.

We benefitted from part of the heavy fronto band that blasted CT and MA, which provided great snow growth. The VVs shown on some models greatly helped. Only limiting factors were the fast movement and the fact it was only starting to really get together at our area. 

[Brian5671]

42 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The champs for our sub forum look to be Smithtown with 9.1” and Glen Cove with 9.3”. Numerous 8-9” reports from Port Jeff to LGA on the north shore. 

crazy- BDR up here reported 8.2 they are usually low on totals for some reason (not sure if they actually get that much less or it's poor measuring)

[snywx]

2.6"

2-3" forecast worked out well up here. Congrats to an overperformer down there!

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, Intensewind002 said:

Yeah January 2016 was in a tier of it's own I ended up with somewhere between 24-30" in that one but it was nearly impossible to measure with all the drifting

I slept from around 11 to about 3, watched it snow from 3 to 6 then fell back asleep at 6 and woke up at 9 to breaks of sun lol.

Just our typical snow event.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

The champs for our sub forum look to be Smithtown with 9.1” and Glen Cove with 9.3”. Numerous 8-9” reports from Port Jeff to LGA on the north shore. 

How did they get so much?  Sound effect snow?

It started late here and ended early, it really was a 6 hour snowstorm here.  Do you have any totals for this area?  I got about 6" here

 

[LibertyBell]

56 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=OKX

 

That LGA total needs to be updated, 8.4" at 1 PM and it was still snowing then.  That 5.5" figure at JFK also needs to be updated for the same reason.....Lido Beach's trained spotter reported 7.5" 

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

dearest anthony: the link is right on the okx homepage 

These links really need to be on the main page so people can find them easily.

[dave0176]

According to NWS Brick got between 5.0 and 5.3. Long Island is literally on an island of it’s own when it comes to snow the last 10 years.  

[hooralph]

Some pics from lunchtime/Madison Sq Park. I have a new office down this way. 

https://blizzardgeek.smugmug.com/Snow/NYC--Winter-21-22/ (annoyingly, Smugmug tries to do preview as a Flash object - I have no idea why)

 

 

 

[justinj]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How did they get so much?  Sound effect snow?

It started late here and ended early, it really was a 6 hour snowstorm here.  Do you have any totals for this area?  I got about 6" here

 

The NW and north central suffolk always seem to jackpot no matter if the forecast calls for more snow to the “west” or “east” banding almost always sets up here as well

I lived in smithtown for 20 years and we were always the bullseye 

[matt8204]

Road crews seemed to do a nice job in my area.  Decent-sized snowfall but the main thoroughfares were down to the blacktop by the time I left home.  Just wet.  They pre-treated the streets yesterday and they must have been out all night.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That LGA total needs to be updated, 8.4" at 1 PM and it was still snowing then.  That 5.5" figure at JFK also needs to be updated for the same reason.....Lido Beach's trained spotter reported 7.5" 

The Central Park total of 5.5 is at 7AM, logic says they surpassed at a minimum 6 inches?

Of course since they won't measure again until 1:00 PM anything that fell after 7:00 am will be treated as if it disappeared into another dimension.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, justinj said:

The NW and north central suffolk always seem to jackpot no matter if the forecast calls for more snow to the “west” or “east” banding almost always sets up here as well

I lived in smithtown for 20 years and we were always the bullseye 

Has to be some sort of sound effect or sound enhanced impact.  This was the perfect example.  No chance of a changeover or any mixing so it can't be anything else.

The only times that the south shore, specifically the western part of the south shore has had the most snow is during super el nino HECS...... great examples are Feb 1983, Feb 2003 and Jan 2016.  Glad I got to experience a 30" + snowstorm here, it might never happen in my lifetime again.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The Central Park total of 5.5 is at 7AM, logic says they surpassed at a minimum 6 inches?

Of course since they won't measure again until 1:00 PM anything that fell after 7:00 am will be treated as if it disappeared into another dimension.

Is there a reason these people dont measure when the storm ends?  Dont they pay these guys enough?  NYC, LGA and JFK all have 7 am as their last measurement.

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, justinj said:

The NW and north central suffolk always seem to jackpot no matter if the forecast calls for more snow to the “west” or “east” banding almost always sets up here as well

I lived in smithtown for 20 years and we were always the bullseye 

We were under a part of the heavy frontogenesis band that nailed CT and MA. HRRR/RAP finally picked up on it and got rid of the bogus subsidence area it had in CT as it was taking place. This really was a nowcast storm but some of the mesos did have a heavy band in this area for a few runs. 

[gravitylover]

4"

[WeatherFox]

33 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The Central Park total of 5.5 is at 7AM, logic says they surpassed at a minimum 6 inches?

Of course since they won't measure again until 1:00 PM anything that fell after 7:00 am will be treated as if it disappeared into another dimension.

NWS bumped Central Park a tab.

Preliminary Snow Totals - January 7, 2022

❄️LaGuardia: 9.7"
❄️Bridgeport: 8.4"
❄️Islip: 6.6"
❄️JFK: 6.2"
❄️Central Park: 5.8"
❄️Newark: 5.2"

[dmillz25]

4 minutes ago, WeatherFox said:

NWS bumped Central Park a tab.

Preliminary Snow Totals - January 7, 2022

❄️LaGuardia: 9.7"
❄️Bridgeport: 8.4"
❄️Islip: 6.6"
❄️JFK: 6.2"
❄️Central Park: 5.8"
❄️Newark: 5.2"

That LGA one seems fishy

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, WeatherFox said:

NWS bumped Central Park a tab.

Preliminary Snow Totals - January 7, 2022

❄️LaGuardia: 9.7"
❄️Bridgeport: 8.4"
❄️Islip: 6.6"
❄️JFK: 6.2"
❄️Central Park: 5.8"
❄️Newark: 5.2"

lol good I guess they do measure end of storm totals but dont publish them until the full 6 hours is up.

Too bad NYC total didn't go to 6" though..... I guess we can round 5.8" to 6.0" and call this a warning level storm for the city especially with the totals in Queens.

 

[hooralph]

I never measured, but we were definitely 6" + on the UWS this morning, but that's not egregiously low.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, dmillz25 said:

That LGA one seems fishy

Sound enhanced, a similar thing happened in December 1995 when LGA had 14" and NYC had 8" and JFK had 7"  ISP had 12" in that one.

 

[ag3]

7 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

That LGA one seems fishy

 

No. I measured 9"-9.50" on my property in Whitestone. A few miles east of LGA.

There was a heavy band that touched northern Queens and extended through SWCT at around 4:00am. That band made the difference and it's why LGA and BDR jackpotted.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, ag3 said:

 

No. I measured 9"-9.50" on my property in Whitestone. A few miles east of LGA.

There was a heavy band that touched northern Queens and extended through SWCT at around 4:00am.

Similar totals in northern Nassau too.

[psv88]

39 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We were under a part of the heavy frontogenesis band that nailed CT and MA. HRRR/RAP finally picked up on it and got rid of the bogus subsidence area it had in CT as it was taking place. This really was a nowcast storm but some of the mesos did have a heavy band in this area for a few runs. 

The Hi RES RGEM (HRDPS?) had the band perfectly placed

[ag3]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Similar totals in northern Nassau too.

Yes. The band was over northern Queens, northern Nassau and extended through SWCT.

[dmillz25]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Sound enhanced, a similar thing happened in December 1995 when LGA had 14" and NYC had 8" and JFK had 7"  ISP had 12" in that one.

 

 

6 minutes ago, ag3 said:

 

No. I measured 9"-9.50" on my property in Whitestone. A few miles east of LGA.

There was a heavy band that touched northern Queens and extended through SWCT at around 4:00am. That band made the difference and it's why LGA and BDR jackpotted.

Ah ok I see. Thanks for letting me know