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OBS and nowcast for a widespread 2-6" event significant impact event, mainly midnight-Noon Friday morning January 7, 2022


wdrag
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52 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The HREF max snowfall did a great job with the wider area of 6”+ than the other guidance. Also had the heaviest amounts going to our Northeast. The HREF also did very well with the summer flash flood events. 
 

56CCF568-7AC3-4C26-9A75-29EDA89C7031.thumb.jpeg.6bde2513b0eb797c3ca7596ffab0c926.jpeg


 

 

Those are too high outside of the immediate NYC area. I believe those are the maximum of the ensemble runs. So it would seem NYC achieved the high side of the modeling and other areas - maybe to the NW - were closer to model consensus.

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So our CP 5.5+ will bring the seasonal total almost to normal for the season.

ACY 4.2 raises their Jan to 17.2 or 3rd highest Jan monthly total and 9th highest monthly total in their history.  Not bad for what was supposed to be a a weak winter.  Suppose it can still go south but at least January is full of wintry opportunities.

Enjoying every minute. Probably off line most of the day except for a CoCoRaHs post at 945A.

 

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11 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Those are too high outside of the immediate NYC area. I believe those are the maximum of the ensemble runs. So it would seem NYC achieved the high side of the modeling and other areas - maybe to the NW - were closer to model consensus.

I am definitely thinking HREF is the best...  in short range. However not perfect. It lagged the past two events and yesterdays 12z is below. AXIS excellent but amounts a little low, probably due to banding,

Screen Shot 2022-01-06 at 6.55.23 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-01-07 at 8.19.52 AM.png

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2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Holy crap it poured snow most of the last hour, so as of 6:00 am, we're up to 5.0" of snow OTG, meaning we got 1.5" of snow in the past hour!  Actually exceeded my prediction of 4.75", which I thought was a bit too optimistic, as the NWS had me for 4.2".  We just backed off to moderate snow and that might have been the last of the heavy snow bands for us.  Still 27F.  

And finally, as of 7:15 am, when the snow had been reduced to flurries, I got a final measurement of 5.75", which outperformed nearly every prediction out there.  Just finished shoveling and then a long JebWalk and finally had to make a snow angel - snow was fairly light and fluffy, but with just enough moisture to make decent snowballs.  Couldn't have asked for a much better storm out of this setup.  

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