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OBS and nowcast for a widespread 2-6" event significant impact event, mainly midnight-Noon Friday morning January 7, 2022


wdrag
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Adding some baseline graphics from 12z-21z/6 guidance that tries to frame a realistic outcome of this event. 

Snow begins ne PA/extreme nw NJ 10PM-midnight and overspreads all of our area by 230 AM.  Bands of heavy snow with around 1"/hour rates should develop in central and northern NJ between 3 and 4AM and become dominant across LI into southern CT between 5 and 7AM. It ends from southwest to northeast between 8AM and Noon across our NYC subforum. Scattered gusty flurries or brief snow showers could continue into late Friday due to steep and still somewhat moist lapse rates associated with the short wave passage.  

Cleanup should be swift shortly after the snow ends. 

An 850 MB low will try to get going south of Long Island near sunrise Friday which should permit the overall heavier snowfall from this intensifying coastal low to occur in  New England, possibly back to eastern LI. 

High impact event for the morning commute--- should result in delays/cancellations of some morning activities.  IF you have to travel, allow plenty of extra time. 

1) NWS 5PM collaborated snowfall graphic.

2) NWS 5PM collaborated Storm Severity Index.

3) SPC HREF ensemble forecast snowfall (12z/6)

4) 18z/6 NAM Banding potential--see black areas for generating bands of heavy snow near 4AM

5) 18z/6 NAM Banding potential--see black areas for generating bands of heavy snow near 7AM

6) NWS 21z/6 ensemble chance of 2+" of snow.

7 NWS 21z/6 ensemble chance of 6+" of snow.

Note the ensembles are not quite so bullish on 6" amounts.   Do enjoy whatever we get... this should be fun for a little while. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Screen Shot 2022-01-06 at 6.55.23 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-01-06 at 7.04.44 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-01-06 at 7.05.04 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-01-06 at 7.16.34 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-01-06 at 7.16.51 PM.png

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  • Rjay pinned this topic

Really down to nowcasting and seeing how our system develops vs the convection well offshore that will rob from it to some degree. The NAM/mesos/RAP/HRRR seem divided over how well it develops for us overnight and how much precip we get. Actually they seem to favor something of a subsidence area over CT and a heavier area over coastal NJ at this point. 3-6"/4-7" seems like the best range for us.

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3 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Been stuck at 36 for hours.       Seems some evaporational cooling is going to be needed at the surface---and this could cut totals, I suppose.

At any rate here is the National Blend of Models interpretation:

1641574800-QynVLjTnEOQ.png

 

That matches the advisory totals very well.

Overall should be a nice minor event that'll make it feel like winter for once.

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4 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Been stuck at 36 for hours.       Seems some evaporational cooling is going to be needed at the surface---and this could cut totals, I suppose.

At any rate here is the National Blend of Models interpretation:

1641574800-QynVLjTnEOQ.png

 

Rare that although this will be a moderate event it'll be shared by so many. In this day and age we get all or nothing storms. Very nice. Hopefully that transition area in W NJ isn't too bad. 

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