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Jan 6/7 "Event" and obs


stormtracker
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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's time.  Euro was kinda bleak, but we still have time for changes.  Anyway, since this is no longer medium/long range, storm's gotta have it's own thread.

Thanks for starting this.  Yeah, it's about time even if it turns out "meh".  Heck, we've had threads for far less potential so why not.

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well the fail, if it does, started with the Euro...before this thread. :weep:

We take starting threads very seriously around here, I know it's been a bit since you've joined us on a regular basis, and may have forgotten. 

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Too much euro love here. Keep in mind that the other models weren’t far off from this. I’m totally prepared for the outcome where it snows west of the mountains, in the Piedmont, and the Lee side of the mountains sees virga.

The old inverted v may yet rear its ugly head.

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25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's time.  Euro was kinda bleak, but we still have time for changes.  Anyway, since this is no longer medium/long range, storm's gotta have it's own thread.

I’m feeling good about you starting this thread. Even though you canceled the last storm with me telling you there was still hope

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Not a downer, just a realist.  The southern suburbs are due a good year.  I lived inside the Beltway for over 20 years so I have seen both sides of the fence.

Totally sympathize — just not sure a 3” probs map was the best one to share for this event. Obviously wish it was showing higher probs but I think a reasonable bar as things stand is 1”.
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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


Totally sympathize — just not sure a 3” probs map was the best one to share for this event. Obviously wish it was showing higher probs but I think a reasonable bar as things stand is 1”.

Yeah, that. map was pretty deceptive.  I mean, today set expectations I guess.  We still have a shot at more, but settle in for a 1 to 3" type deal.  Freshen up the snowpack

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, that. map was pretty deceptive.  I mean, today set expectations I guess.  We still have a shot at more, but settle in for a 1 to 3" type deal.  Freshen up the snowpack

We’re in goalpost range in my opinion. Low end goalpost is a 1-2 event like the euro, high end is a 3-6 like the GFS.  I’d be surprised to see it trend away from us completely, but then again, our last storm basically materialized at 36 hour lead time so who knows. 

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