John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, RawCrabMeat said: That gradient north of Alabama. 1-6 in half a county Often on the edge of rain you see the heaviest snow fall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 MRX adjusted my (West Knox) high temp tomorrow down a couple of degrees. Now, it says a high of 37, was 39 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 The least likely occurrence that MRX mentions even for my area is that we start as snow, switch to rain, then back to snow. It's extremely rare to switch back and forth in a continual cooling situation like this should be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 56 minutes ago, Jesse from KY said: I heard that a few of the models (HRRR, NAM & Hi-res NAM) trended further north with the heavier snowfall. How likely is that? And could that mean lower snow for areas like Bell County, KY? I live in the North side near the Clay County line. Right now. It looks great where you are. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 18z GFS doesn't budge on its track 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 The least likely occurrence that MRX mentions even for my area is that we start as snow, switch to rain, then back to snow. It's extremely rare to switch back and forth in a continual cooling situation like this should be. Unless it’s a backside wrap around situation I agree with you. I think everyone north of 40 stays snow if we start out as snow. I think you get 6+ inches and I think we will see some higher ratios towards the 2nd half of the system when the temps crash. I think someone in the valley north of 40, west of 81 will get 4-6”. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Think 95% of the board would cash out the GFS...have to admire the consistency 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 18z GFS doesn't budge on its trackI know it’s the GFS but it’s hard to ignore how steady it’s been. It’s the best one for my location . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: I know it’s the GFS but it’s hard to ignore how steady it’s been. It’s the best one for my location . That consistency lead to places like MRX and HUN to pull the WWA south of 40 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 As far as the NAM...rest of the CAMs looked more like GFS/Euro 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I haven’t been following the RAP to watch for trends but the last couple of runs look ok. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 12 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I haven’t been following the RAP to watch for trends but the last couple of runs look ok. . It's much better than it was yesterday. Especially for Southern and Western areas. It's somewhat better for eastern areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 These Models are like my X-Wife always looking for Another solution! 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 My point and click forecast is showing the high as 39 tomorrow and a low of 13. What I want to know is when and how it warms from the forecast low of 28 to 39 from morning to noon then drops back down? Either way, it's showing a Thursday 1-2 inches and Thursday night 1-3, so we will see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse from KY Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 55 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Right now. It looks great where you are. That's what I want to hear, thanks guys. I love snow!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I wouldn't worry about that 18Z NAM. HRRR run off the same WRF is in line with the GFS/Euro. Upper Plateau is staying all snow. Bank on that! Tennessee has sports bettering. What about weather betting? Though I have not looked hard, Kentucky snow looks excellent. PVA is lined up. Should be plenty of overrunning moisture up there. Last post today. You all know my Chattan00ga forecast. No snow in the valley. Wins for Signal and Lookout. Mocs beat Wofford tonight. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 These Models are like my X-Wife always looking for Another solution!Had a girlfriend like that. She only looked at the maps with the most inches. . 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I wouldn't worry about that 18Z NAM. HRRR run off the same WRF is in line with the GFS/Euro. Upper Plateau is staying all snow. Bank on that! Tennessee has sports bettering. What about weather betting? Though I have not looked hard, Kentucky snow looks excellent. PVA is lined up. Should be plenty of overrunning moisture up there. Last post today. You all know my Chattan00ga forecast. No snow in the valley. Wins for Signal and Lookout. Mocs beat Wofford tonight.How much for signal and look out you think? I have a friend down there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RawCrabMeat Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Noticing an ever so slight ccw tilt and mildly more intense rates on the 18z gfs... a tad north shift but still steady and southern . All in all great run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Here's the 18z NBM...while I don't look at it much, it's been slowly trending toward the GFS throughout the day. Maybe something to keep an eye on. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersnow888 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 So when I read the text on the WWA for my area , upper cumberland , it said 2- 4 with locally higher amounts of 5- 6 inches. And it said they may change to a WSW ..... I tried to copy it over here but failed, must be doing something wrong. Maybe someone with better skills could do it haha. Anyway, hope we don't get any rain with this one 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 White House here. Models looking pretty good for this area. I’m about 20-25 minutes south of the Kentucky Tennessee boarder. If this one pans out it will be two years in a row of a good size winter storm for the area. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brewman22001 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Can someone please do a snow dance so Loudon Lenoir City area can get a good snow. Keeping my fingers crossed and hopeful it can drop southeast a little. Great job guys, you all are my go to on weather! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 What is perplexing to me is the snowfall amounts are near identical to when MRX issued a winter storm warning with the last system, yet with the colder temps the travel impacts from this should be worse. Not sure what their reasoning is on that 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 10 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said: What is perplexing to me is the snowfall amounts are near identical to when MRX issued a winter storm warning with the last system, yet with the colder temps the travel impacts from this should be worse. Not sure what their reasoning is on that I don’t belive there is any reasoning behind it. It is most likely who is on the shift at the time and coordination with the other offices. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 We’ve got 3 options…. Look at the NAM, watch Tennessee play basketball or run splinters under our toe nails. I’m torn . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 14 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: We’ve got 3 options…. Look at the NAM, watch Tennessee play basketball or run splinters under our toe nails. I’m torn . Tennessee's offense is like watching that December pattern day after day. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 HRRR really dumps on the mid-State. Basically unchanged elsewhere vs 18z. I expect Middle Tennessee to be under a Winter Storm Warning soon if the rest of the 0z suite comes in this way. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I'm going to remain hopeful for this, I always have better faith in systems that start with cold air versus ones fighting it from the start. If I receive even a couple inches of snow I'd be happy but I'd like to see at least 3-4 cause I am greedy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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