Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, TellicoWx said: Looks more realistic than the OP Yea, we are probably still at a range where smoothing out the edges probably helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 This could be one of those "sneaky" systems for Chattanooga. We laugh because we are prone to getting shut out of snow but it's sort of like poker. You always remember the bad beats but never talk about the 1 or 2 outer you hit to win a big hand. This is not a wishcast at all, but I've seen several times the moisture was more than predicted and Chattanooga was just on the line of rain/snow. If we happen to get this thing a hair south and hit the transition zone and be on the snow side with rain just to the south of us, I've seen some really heavy snow here when this happens. I'm not writing this one off yet. I'm actually intrigued with a possible surprise here but as we all know in our area, everything has to be perfect. Maybe this will be one of those times. We will know come Thursday!Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, Uncle Nasty said: This could be one of those "sneaky" systems for Chattanooga. We laugh because we are prone to getting shut out of snow but it's sort of like poker. You always remember the bad beats but never talk about the 1 or 2 outer you hit to win a big hand. This is not a wishcast at all, but I've seen several times the moisture was more than predicted and Chattanooga was just on the line of rain/snow. If we happen to get this thing a hair south and hit the transition zone and be on the snow side with rain just to the south of us, I've seen some really heavy snow here when this happens. I'm not writing this one off yet. I'm actually intrigued with a possible surprise here but as we all know in our area, everything has to be perfect. Maybe this will be one of those times. We will know come Thursday! Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk Yep. These systems with a weak Low always seem to be sneaky. We are only dealing with tenths of inches so asking a global model to hit it on the head even 3 days out is asking too much. Which is why @Carvers Gap hit it on the head a couple posts up about smoothing the edges out. Add .1-.2 inches across an area with 10-15:1 ratios and that's a significant uptick in snowfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8283 El Nino Baby Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 19 minutes ago, John1122 said: Here's a video that gives a very basic explanation. https://www.wbir.com/video/weather/explaining-horseshoe-snow-forecasts-in-east-tennessee/51-5f97bf74-5944-4211-948a-e572cf82db2f Thanks for the video! For a second I was confused by the video title since I live on a road named "Horseshoe Dr." and the video title is "Explaining 'horseshoe' snow forecasts in East Tennessee". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I say the system could be under-done(earlier post by me), but it is possible that this system also could run out of gas. IMBY, I see this from time to time. The system looks robust to my west, and then just kind of runs out of steam. [mention=16126]Holston_River_Rambler[/mention]is correct I think. This just gets strung out. It may have been shredded by the Apps as the snow axis is almost over the Apps at 12z. That would cause moisture transport issues.Maybe there’s a handoff coming that hasn’t shown up yet? Mods get confused during an active pattern. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: Maybe there’s a handoff coming that hasn’t shown up yet? Mods get confused during an active pattern. . If there is a hand off, I just don’t want an early (or -non) whistle. LOL. All kidding aside, I need to go back and look. When there is an slp east of the Apps, almost always some type of handoff as you know. To me it just looks like the operational just ran out of gas. Ensemble looks healthier. I tend never to discount wonky Euro runs, because sometimes they are right. But that precip shield is an outlier for sure. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 So much to discuss. It does looks like a decent situation state-wide. 1. Sounding is from near the rain/snow line so yes it has a warm nose. What I'm seeing above that is a saturated DGZ. Looks like an isentropic lift event along all the right surfaces. 2. Chattanooga could benefit from dynamic cooling aloft; however, surface temps should remain mid-30s during snowfall if it snows. Signal and Lookout will be snow. 3. @8283 El Nino Baby welcome to Tennessee! Rose Bowl effect in Chattanooga today - I know that's Southern Calif. Chattanooga got blanked but snow sits on local mountains. I used to forecast for several California newspapers including the LA Times and San Jose Mercury News. California micro-climates rock! We will try to satisfy you here in Tennessee. 4. Yeah the banding on the Euro is probably forecast banding of snow. Of course those locations are subject to change. 5. There's still time for East Coast weenies. Our last system surprised them. Can we get two in a row in DC for Ian? As others have noted a less amped slider would really help Chattanooga proper. However it might put us in conflict with Memphis - where snow is quite possible this time. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 The best pure snow events for the valley areas almost always seem to be upglide situations. The systems that are prone to produce big events are almost always prone to mixing issues. The rare times they don't is when you see huge totals in lower elevations. But most major valley cities have fewer than 15 10+ inch snow events in the last 100 years or so. So once again, uncommon. I'll always take a 3-6 inch all snow event vs a risky mix or 12 inch gamble. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 If there is a hand off, I just don’t want an early (or -non) whistle. LOL. All kidding aside, I need to go back and look. When there is an slp east of the Apps, almost always some type of handoff as you know. To me it just looks like the operational just ran out of gas. Ensemble looks healthier. I tend never to discount wonky Euro runs, because sometimes they are right. But that precip shield is an outlier for sure.Just like in Tennessee athletics, I’ve always got the “what could go wrong” outlook on things. Maybe I’m wrong but I can’t ever remember a handoff going well for the valley. They always seem to transfer from Birmingham to Charleston. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 Very end of the extended HRRR seeing the system. Ends with us sitting here. Generally puts down 2-4 inches in the mid-state getting to this point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuCoVaWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 How is this looking for Grundy? I've seen people mention a possible NW jog over in MA forum. Also if it runs out of steam will it affect SwVa? Sorry for the ignorance lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, BuCoVaWx said: How is this looking for Grundy? I've seen people mention a possible NW jog over in MA forum. Also if it runs out of steam will it affect SwVa? Sorry for the ignorance lol. SWVA looks pretty good across all modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 8 minutes ago, John1122 said: I'll always take a 3-6 inch all snow event vs a risky mix or 12 inch gamble. Amen to this. Although for all of us in the less than perfect locations off of the Upper Cumberland I'll take a 2" all snow event over the risky mix or 4"+ gamble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Very end of the extended HRRR seeing the system. Ends with us sitting here. Generally puts down 2-4 inches in the mid-state getting to this point. How is that snow south of the 540 line?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 18z NAM looks better with the LLJ not running too far out in front...should help western forum areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 12 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: How is that snow south of the 540 line? . The 540 isn't more than a general indicator. It can snow at 546 or rain at 534. It's a great snow sounding over Knox, south of the 540. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 There's about a 3 to 6 hour timing difference in the models. Slower runs like the NAM are better for the West side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 NAMing underway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 NAM ends up here. A few pockets of freezing rain below the snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 From OHX for Mid State. 215 PM CST Tue Jan 4 2022 ...Significant Snowfall Likely Thursday into Thursday Evening... A storm system moving over the region will bring snow to the mid- state once again Thursday and Thursday evening. The precipitation may start as a mix early, with even minor ice accumulation south of I-40. But it should quickly change to all snow, and end rapidly in the early evening. Amounts at this point look to range from around one half inch southwest to as much a 4 inches along the Upper Cumberland. This snow will be followed by frigid temperatures on Friday. Check back often for later updates as snowfall amounts are subject to change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricaneguy Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I get the feeling this will be a much better snow event for Middle TN compared to the East TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Hurricaneguy said: I get the feeling this will be a much better snow event for Middle TN compared to the East TN. Weenie rule number 62. Never, and I mean NEVER............ use anything the NAM throws out beyond 36,42 hours. lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, John1122 said: NAM ends up here. A few pockets of freezing rain below the snow. NAM is showing a more prominent “warm nose” in the southern portion of the valley. This run shows it up to Loudoun County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 MRX first call map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, Vol4Life said: NAM is showing a more prominent “warm nose” in the southern portion of the valley. This run shows it up to Loudoun County. The NAM is usually amped which means it has the most prominent warm nose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricaneguy Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Weenie rule number 62. Never, and I mean NEVER............ use anything the NAM throws out beyond 36,42 hours. lol Oh no doubt, it wasn't in response to that NAM run. Just could see something similar happening with this event that did with Monday's snow. Too warm on the Eastern part of the state then lack of precip once snow mixes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Looks familiar @John1122 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VOLtage Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MRX&issuedby=MRX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 "Precipitation will begin to move in near Chattanooga around sunrise on Thursday, and as the system progresses to the east, precipitation will spread northeastward during the day. Still some big question marks with how soon precipitation will start making it to the surface as initially we`ll have some very dry air in place, and won`t really be advecting much low level moisture into the area. So the column will need to saturate from the top down. Some of the forecast soundings show in the Valley that this will happen closer to around 18z, while others are holding off saturation to the surface till closer to 00z. How fast this column can saturate will have major impacts on how much precipitation and snowfall makes it to the surface." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RawCrabMeat Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Would be nice to get one system without rain being involved... we'll see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Yeah, wrt my question earlier, the only notable enhancement to lift they mention is : "additionally think the Plateau counties up into southwest VA will also see higher amounts as they`re near the PVA which will help bring down the precipitation at a much faster rate. Further down in the valley things are much more uncertain specifically because of uncertainty in how fast the column saturates and how warm they get during the day." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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