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Small or possibly moderate wintry event possible for a portion of the NYC subforum Friday morning-early afternoon 1/7/22


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1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

Eh. Guess my post was deleted. 

Anyway, Forky looking correct as usual when he posts positively 

I think it works both ways with FF. Didn’t get sucked into the last event, and many know how that ended. When he’s onboard or not, I’m listening 

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The big trend since 12z is to hook the coastal SLP up a little closer to the Cape. That really favors SNE and EMA in particular. We may get a few hours of moderate to heavy snow, but there's also the threat of a relative minimum through out area that has shown up on a few runs. The 18z EC was a little light with QPF outside of LI for example.

 

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Meso models and the GFS seem to like a good fronto band from about where I am to the ORH area through CT. We'll see how that pans out. Ratios may be over 10-1 in that due to the strong lift within that band. This might not be done ticking west and stronger. The trough looked a good bit more impressive tonight with a sharp more consolidated S/W, so NW areas might also be in for more. It's still also acting a little funky with convection offshore.

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We have to keep a sharp eye on maps tomorrow. If by chance the low develops faster a little further south and still tracks up the coast it could increase amounts dramatically and we'd be talking 6-10". WSW criteria. I do not think that's going to happen but it's not out of the question. Tonight has been definitely a trend towards more robust a storm.

WX/PT

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Gfs is a tick west from 0z

 As you can see here , there are 3 lows on this map. The snow amounts will go up if we can get the low circled in black to be the main low.  To me , the models are still having a tough time figuring out which is the dominant low.

 

Happy tracking today

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_5.png

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10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is a tick west from 0z

 As you can see here , there are 3 lows on this map. The snow amounts will go up if we can get the low circled in black to be the main low.  To me , the models are still having a tough time figuring out which is the dominant low.

 

Happy tracking today

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_5.png

MJO, How will will know IF that low actually becomes the dominant low , would that come down to nowcasting or is there someway to tell ahead of time if that energy gets transferred ? Is there a way other than Looking at Radar ? 

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4 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

MJO, How will will know IF that low actually becomes the dominant low , would that come down to nowcasting or is there someway to tell ahead of time if that energy gets transferred ? Is there a way other than Looking at Radar ? 

We have to see where the low transfers to the coast . That will determine the coastal low.

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Good Thursday morning everyone,  I'll start an OBS-NOWCAST thread at 8PM tonight.

In the meantime--it's coming. What do I think from looking at op models and ensembles? 2-4" nw NJ and 3-6" elsewhere with nuances.

You all will be on top of model guidance and your own sense of what will happen. I'll get into the banding with the NOWCAST thread this evening and haven't examined that nor snow growth but it seems to me NYC should receive 3".  I could be wrong, as usual.

The storm continues to be a 5-10 hour event (midnight-Noon) with ending time most of our area 9A-11A, though a few flurries should be scattered about through the afternoon as the sharp cold 500MB trough passes through. 

Added the NWS 5AM regional snow forecast and the Winter Storm Severity Index. Use the legends.  Delays and/or at least some morning activities cancels anticipated in my opinion. 

Am looking at threads for Sunday the 9th which is trending colder, and the following weekend (15-16) but absolutely nothing from me til Friday or Saturday on those. Am off line til at least 6PM. Have a great day!

Screen Shot 2022-01-06 at 5.36.03 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-01-06 at 5.37.42 AM.png

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