Upstate/Eastern New York- Jan 5-7 Lake Effect Snow Event

[TugHillMatt]

3 minutes ago, sferic said:

@TugHillMatt

 

Matt,

 

Why do the daily forecasts change so rapidly?

 

The WWA is now from 3-5 to 3-6 but the tonight/tomm/ tomm night forecasts went down a tad.

 

Just wondering why?

Those are computer generated and change all the time. They're really not the best to go off of, and are rarely ever right...especially for lake effect snow.

[BuffaloWeather]

25 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Only 1… maybe 2 not on the list.  This will make the cut!  

I think there is quite a few more maybe 3-4? Jan 2019 had 2? Didnt early Jan 2014 have one?

Here is one.

Dec 27, 2020

 

UPDATE: The latest total comes in at 18.4”!

[BuffaloWeather]

I tried to document the variety of the chase with these videos. Hope you all enjoy, I had an incredible time!

 

 

 

 

[Thinksnow18]

I just posted on the other thread regarding the 18z GFS a bad the amount of opportunities over the next 24 days…digging deeper, KBUF, I believe, was 25” below average for the season snowfall. We almost made that up today. By the end of this run, We could be seeing above average positive anomalies. That’s amazing considering where we were at. 

[Thinksnow18]

Not sure if it means much at this point but the western end of Lake Erie has really blossomed in the past hour, and what seems to be a SSW trajectory?

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Part 1 of that Huron meso low loop. Gonna have to see if I can splice them together, thing is still spinning up! 

 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

19 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Not sure if it means much at this point but the western end of Lake Erie has really blossomed in the past hour, and what seems to be a SSW trajectory?

I think she's just about done.  Mid lake single band is falling apart into cellular pulses, and the lack of any real penetration inland is wasting whatever the band had left.  Just imagine if the winds overnight were a little less intense and the winds tonight just had a little kick to them, could have really bumped up totals.  Rates in the heart of the band tonight are just not that impressive.    

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I think there is quite a few more maybe 3-4? Jan 2019 had 2? Didnt early Jan 2014 have one?

Here is one.

Dec 27, 2020

 

UPDATE: The latest total comes in at 18.4”!

wow yeah you might be right.  thats my task this week is to get this list updated!  the way these north town guys cry how they don't get big storms anymore and we really had that many top 20 setting events at KBUF during "the drought"?

[BuffaloWeather]

11 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

wow yeah you might be right.  thats my task this week is to get this list updated!  the way these north town guys cry how they don't get big storms anymore and we really had that many top 20 setting events at KBUF during "the drought"?

I wish you luck. I tried for the last hour and its not easy.

[BuffaloWeather]

I think I got 1" today storm total.

[BuffaloWeather]

My favorite picture tonight. 

[TugHillMatt]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I think I got 1" today storm total.

I don't know how to feel about this.

[BuffaloWeather]

7 hours ago, Leelee said:

I'm by the 990 and even if the current band sat right here through Midnight, we wouldn't reach a foot. NWS and their clown maps sometimes...

Yeah it says I'll get 8-12 and I have 1" so far today lol

[BuffaloWeather]

Full radar loop

 

[BuffaloWeather]

City is still getting hit hard. I'm not sure if anyone measures at any of the stations downtown? 30" totals down there by now.

Here is closest webcam to the water I think

https://www.nittec.org/cameras/?cid=501

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Yeah not often downtown itself is the bullseye.  Looks like shes finally about to veer, your turn BW

[TugHillMatt]

Just checked the Springville webcam and it looks like moderate snow there. Not sure if this band is associated with the East coast system or lake effect...or a lake enhanced combo?

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Just checked the Springville webcam and it looks like moderate snow there. Not sure if this band is associated with the East coast system or lake effect...or a lake enhanced combo?

That's from the storm system+orographic lift over the hilly terrain south/southeast of them.

[BuffaloWeather]

5 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Yeah not often downtown itself is the bullseye.  Looks like shes finally about to veer, your turn BW

No chance.

[sferic]

Light snow at a steady rate in Cicero

[WNash]

50 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

wow yeah you might be right.  thats my task this week is to get this list updated!  the way these north town guys cry how they don't get big storms anymore and we really had that many top 20 setting events at KBUF during "the drought"?

KBUF isn’t on the same heading as North Buffalo/Northtowns, but you do you, boss

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

That meso low has been stalled spinning around Huron for over 6 hours now.  It just keeps going.  Would love to be in the middle of whatever the hell is going in there!  

[rochesterdave]

it has an eye

[rochesterdave]

Wonder if we can get one over Erie or Ontario? Bet we do

[BuffaloWeather]

2 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Yeah not often downtown itself is the bullseye.  Looks like shes finally about to veer, your turn BW

You were right Steve. 3” already tonight 

[LakeEffectKing]

Congrats to all who cashed in!  Nice event for the metro!!

[LakeEffectKing]

From BUF NWS FB page:

....looks like a coupon I should clip...

[Thinksnow18]

1 hour ago, LakeEffectKing said:

From BUF NWS FB page:

....looks like a coupon I should clip...

Wait, second only to January 11th 1982? Didn’t the Blizzard of ‘85 have a say in that? Never mind I see it was .9” more. I will say two things stick out to me about that list of top 20 snowfalls at KBUF…there will never be another stretch like we had in December Xmas week, that’s a unicorn and March 17th 1936…that must’ve been one hell of a synoptic storm as there was zero chance that was lake effect.

[lakeeffectkid383]

4.1” overnight. Still snowing. 

[wolfie09]

Steady snow here this morning..It looks like a band forming towards Matt .

Rgem now in range for that Monday event, looks good as of now lol