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OBS-NOWCAST for the first moderate to high impact snowstorm of the 21-22 season, along and south of I95 3AM-7PM Monday January 3, 2022


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52 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The dry air issue has been discussed enough, but looking at the bottom of this radar view from KENX (Albany), you'd think LI got clobbered today:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=ENX-N0Q-1-200-100-usa-rad

Fun stuff.

 

Too bad we can’t shovel what falls at the 10000 ft or whatever level that radar beam crosses our area. :( 

There was no crazy confluence here today but plenty of dry low and mid level air. Soundings were brutal and made it obvious those GFS snow maps were way overdone. 

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31 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

I ended up with roughly an inch in Point Pleasant Beach.  It was a bad bust by the nws for my area as they had us in 4-6 all day.  The gradient got the sickest between toms river and manahawkin.  

They missed on the gradient by like 30 miles.   It's not a bad bust.   It's just a really hard forecast.  

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NOUS41 KPHI 040436
 PNSPHI
 DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-
 071-101>106-041636-
 
 Public Information Statement
 National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
 1136 PM EST Mon Jan 3 2022
 
 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS...
 
 Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider             
 
 ...Delaware...
 
 ...Kent County...
 Hartly                       13.0 in   0238 PM 01/03   Public               
 Harrington                   12.2 in   0701 PM 01/03   Mesonet              
 3 SW Magnolia                11.0 in   0315 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 1 SE Woodside                10.5 in   0317 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 2 WNW Frederica              10.3 in   0312 PM 01/03   Public               
 1 WSW Dover Air Force Base   10.0 in   0320 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Woodside                     10.0 in   0700 PM 01/03   Mesonet              
 Frederica                    9.6 in    0701 PM 01/03   Mesonet              
 Smyrna                       8.9 in    0700 PM 01/03   Mesonet              
 Dover                        8.5 in    0700 PM 01/03   Mesonet              
 3 S Kitts Hummock            7.7 in    0315 PM 01/03   Public               
 West Dover                   7.6 in    0700 PM 01/03   Mesonet              
 Clayton                      7.5 in    0800 PM 01/03   Public               
 
 ...New Castle County...
 Bear                         6.5 in    0820 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Blackbird                    6.2 in    0659 PM 01/03   Mesonet              
 Middletown                   6.0 in    0333 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Summit Bridge                5.5 in    0204 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Port Penn                    5.1 in    0659 PM 01/03   Mesonet              
 2 WSW Summit Bridge          3.0 in    1058 AM 01/03   Public               
 Glasgow                      2.2 in    0659 PM 01/03   Mesonet              
 New Castle                   1.6 in    0659 PM 01/03   Mesonet              
 New Castle County Airport    1.0 in    0100 PM 01/03   ASOS                 
 Talley                       0.5 in    0657 PM 01/03   Mesonet              
 White Clay Creek             0.5 in    0658 PM 01/03   Mesonet              
 Newark                       0.4 in    0658 PM 01/03   Mesonet              
 
 ...Sussex County...
 Ellendale                    14.5 in   0702 PM 01/03   Mesonet              
 1 NW Georgetown              12.6 in   0634 PM 01/03   Broadcast Media      
 1 WNW Georgetown             12.5 in   0443 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Georgetown                   12.0 in   0346 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 1 SSE Bridgeville            12.0 in   0413 PM 01/03   Storm Chaser         
 1 WSW Milton                 11.6 in   0213 PM 01/03   Public               
 Milford                      10.0 in   0230 PM 01/03   Public               
 Bridgeville                  9.3 in    0703 PM 01/03   Mesonet              
 Millsboro                    9.0 in    0430 PM 01/03   Public               
 Millsboro                    9.0 in    1041 PM 01/03   Public               
 Stockley                     7.7 in    0702 PM 01/03   Mesonet              
 1 WSW Lewes                  7.0 in    0400 PM 01/03   Public               
 2 SW Rehoboth Beach          6.0 in    0330 PM 01/03   Public               
 Dagsboro                     5.5 in    0701 PM 01/03   Mesonet              
 3 SW Long Neck               5.0 in    0105 PM 01/03   Public               
 Lewes                        5.0 in    0400 PM 01/03   Public               
 Delmar                       4.5 in    1040 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Nassau                       4.4 in    0701 PM 01/03   Mesonet              
 Greenwood                    4.0 in    1003 AM 01/03   Public               
 
 ...Maryland...
 
 ...Caroline County...
 Henderson                    11.0 in   0403 PM 01/03   Public               
 Goldsboro                    10.0 in   0307 PM 01/03   Emergency Mngr       
 Greensboro                   9.8 in    0307 PM 01/03   Emergency Mngr       
 2 SSE Templeville            9.0 in    0307 PM 01/03   Emergency Mngr       
 Preston                      8.0 in    0307 PM 01/03   Emergency Mngr       
 Denton                       7.0 in    0309 PM 01/03   Emergency Mngr       
 
 ...Kent County...
 Rock Hall                    9.5 in    0500 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Millington                   7.3 in    1230 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 
 ...Queen Anne`s County...
 Grasonville                  10.5 in   0200 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Stevensville                 9.0 in    0340 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Kingstown                    7.0 in    0100 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 2 NNE Starr                  6.9 in    1107 AM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 
 ...Talbot County...
 Easton                       9.0 in    0400 PM 01/03   Public               
 Royal Oak                    8.0 in    1240 PM 01/03   CO-OP Observer       
 
 ...New Jersey...
 
 ...Atlantic County...
 Egg Harbor Twp.              13.5 in   0730 PM 01/03   Public               
 Estell Manor                 13.3 in   0400 PM 01/03   Public               
 Absecon                      13.0 in   0343 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Atlantic City International  13.0 in   0700 PM 01/03   ASOS                 
 Northfield                   12.4 in   0530 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 3 NE Hamilton Twp            12.0 in   0300 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 1 NNE Somers Point           11.4 in   0405 PM 01/03   Public               
 Galloway Twp                 11.2 in   0500 PM 01/03   Public               
 Somers Point                 11.0 in   0420 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Mays Landing                 11.0 in   0527 PM 01/03   Broadcast Media      
 Egg Harbor Twp               10.0 in   0302 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Corbin City                  9.8 in    0644 PM 01/03   Public               
 1 ESE Egg Harbor Twp.        9.5 in    0345 PM 01/03   Public               
 Port Republic                9.0 in    0922 PM 01/03   Public               
 Hammonton                    8.5 in    0300 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 
 ...Burlington County...
 1 ESE Leisuretowne           2.8 in    0120 PM 01/03   NWS Employee         
 2 W Medford Twp.             2.0 in    1121 AM 01/03   Public               
 1 WNW South Jersey Regional  1.2 in    0544 PM 01/03   NWS Employee         
 Lumberton                    0.8 in    0142 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Delran                       0.6 in    1230 PM 01/03   NWS Employee         
 Mount Holly WFO              0.6 in    0100 PM 01/03   Official NWS Obs     
 
 ...Camden County...
 Winslow Twp                  5.5 in    0130 PM 01/03   Public               
 1 SW Pine Hill               4.0 in    1200 PM 01/03   Public               
 1 WSW Lindenwold             4.0 in    0300 PM 01/03   Public               
 Gloucester Twp               3.8 in    0300 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Lindenwold                   3.5 in    0215 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Cherry Hill                  3.0 in    0103 PM 01/03   Public               
 Haddon Heights               1.6 in    1227 PM 01/03   Public               
 Bellmawr                     1.3 in    1200 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 
 ...Cape May County...
 Ocean City                   14.0 in   0522 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Seaville                     13.0 in   0643 PM 01/03   Public               
 Petersburg                   12.5 in   0427 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Villas                       11.5 in   0426 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Cape May                     11.5 in   0500 PM 01/03   Public               
 Wildwood Crest               11.5 in   0628 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Ocean View                   11.3 in   0147 PM 01/03   Public               
 Wildwood                     11.3 in   0600 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 North Cape May               10.3 in   0200 PM 01/03   Public               
 Marmora                      9.7 in    0100 PM 01/03   Public               
 1 SE Marmora                 9.0 in    0500 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Woodbine                     8.5 in    0922 PM 01/03   Public               
 North Wildwood               8.0 in    0400 PM 01/03   Public               
 
 ...Cumberland County...
 Port Norris                  10.7 in   0501 PM 01/03   Public               
 Millville                    6.3 in    0100 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Newport                      6.0 in    0330 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Cedarville                   5.5 in    0200 PM 01/03   Public               
 Bridgeton                    5.0 in    0400 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Upper Deerfield Twp          4.5 in    0100 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 
 ...Gloucester County...
 Newfield                     6.5 in    0520 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Franklinville                5.5 in    0330 PM 01/03   Public               
 Williamstown                 5.3 in    0248 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Washington Twp               5.0 in    0100 PM 01/03   Public               
 Greenwich Twp                4.5 in    0250 PM 01/03   Public               
 Mantua                       4.0 in    0100 PM 01/03   Public               
 Glassboro                    3.4 in    1127 AM 01/03   Public               
 West Deptford Twp            3.4 in    0200 PM 01/03   Public               
 
 ...Ocean County...
 Little Egg Harbor Twp        13.2 in   0400 PM 01/03   Public               
 Barnegat Twp                 10.1 in   0314 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Manahawkin                   9.0 in    0620 PM 01/03   Public               
 Tuckerton                    8.5 in    0400 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 1 E Forked River             8.0 in    0800 PM 01/03   Public               
 Beach Haven                  7.0 in    0550 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 1 NNE Beach Haven            6.0 in    0200 PM 01/03   Public               
 Forked River                 6.0 in    0405 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Barnegat                     5.8 in    0100 PM 01/03   Public               
 Waretown                     5.5 in    0230 PM 01/03   Public               
 1 SSE Stafford Twp.          5.0 in    1230 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Bayville                     4.0 in    0300 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Manchester Twp               3.9 in    0400 PM 01/03   Public               
 Toms River                   2.0 in    0254 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Brick                        1.8 in    0400 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 1 N Toms River               1.0 in    0401 PM 01/03   Public               
 Lakewood Twp                 0.5 in    0153 PM 01/03   Public               
 Jackson                      0.3 in    0300 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 
 ...Pennsylvania...
 
 ...Chester County...
 Glenmoore                     T in     0236 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 Exton                         T in     0319 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter      
 
 ...Philadelphia County...
 Philadelphia International A 1.0 in    0700 PM 01/03   ASOS                 
 &&
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5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Atlantic City picked up 13.0” of snow while both Newark and New York City received none. That surpassed the old record of February 24, 1989 when Atlantic City was buried by 12.3" of snow while Newark and NYC received none

February 1989 was the exact event I was thinking of-- except I thought they received 19" in that? Philly got about 10"?

Anyway it looks like our models have improved somewhat since then, we had a forecast of 6-8 inches leading right up to the storm.  It was a 6-8" virga snowstorm for us lol.  It was the opposite kind of bust compared to December 1989 when we were predicted to get 6-8" of snow and the secondary formed right overhead and we got thunder, lightning and rain instead!

Are you familiar with both of these events, Don?  They were the two most negative busts during the 1980s.

 

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6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Atlantic City picked up 13.0” of snow while both Newark and New York City received none. That surpassed the old record of February 24, 1989 when Atlantic City was buried by 12.3" of snow while Newark and NYC received none

Also, Correct me if I'm wrong: Atlantic City calendar day snowfall yesterday was their 7th highest in their period of record. 

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This was the first time ACY had a 60°+ day before a daily snowfall of 12”+.

Day before high temperature and daily snowfall of 12”+

Maximum 1-Day Total Snowfall 
for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Value
Ending Date
Period of record: 1945-01-31 to 2022-01-03
1 35°  18.4 2010-12-26
2 27°  16.6 1979-02-19
3 32°  16.0 2003-02-16
4 40°  14.6 2010-02-06
5 23°  14.3 1987-01-26
6 32°  13.2 2018-01-04
7 62°  13.0 2022-01-03
8 29°  12.9 1964-01-13
9 32°  12.7 1996-01-07
10 38°  12.3 1989-02-24

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This was the first time ACY had a 60°+ day before a daily snowfall of 12”+.

Day before high temperature and daily snowfall of 12”+

Maximum 1-Day Total Snowfall 
for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Value
Ending Date
Period of record: 1945-01-31 to 2022-01-03
1 35°  18.4 2010-12-26
2 27°  16.6 1979-02-19
3 32°  16.0 2003-02-16
4 40°  14.6 2010-02-06
5 23°  14.3 1987-01-26
6 32°  13.2 2018-01-04
7 62°  13.0 2022-01-03
8 29°  12.9 1964-01-13
9 32°  12.7 1996-01-07
10 38°  12.3 1989-02-24

 

thats awesome, have we ever had a foot or more of snow after a 60 degree day?

 

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4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

thats awesome, have we ever had a foot or more of snow after a 60 degree day?

 

Yeah, we had the Feb 2017 blizzard a day after the record 60°+ warmth.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Feb92017

  • Blizzard conditions occurred over Long Island, Southern Connecticut, and coastal portions of the Lower Hudson Valley from after sunrise into the late afternoon hours on February 9, 2017.
    • Snowfall totals ranged from 6" across portions of northeast New Jersey to around 10" in New York City to 12-16" across Long Island, southern Connecticut, and the Lower Hudson Valley. 
    • Thundersnow was observed across portions of Long Island and southern Connecticut. 
    • Snowfall rates range from 1 to 3 inches per hour with locally 4 inches per hour at times. 
  • The blizzard brought delays and cancellations to the regions transportations systems as well as numerous accidents on roadways. 
    • Approximately 2,000 flight cancellations and numerous delays occurred at the three major airports, Kennedy, Newark, and LaGuardia.
    • The Long Island Railroad had systemwide delays and cancelled 20 trains.
    • Multiple car accidents occurred on roads as well as several hundred rescues were performed by police/fire on Long Island. 

 

 Other Facts 
  • A cold front associated with low pressure across southeast Canada moved across the region on Wednesday February 8. Behind the cold front, an upper level trough amplfied across the midwest. Energy within this trough acted on the cold front to develop a new low pressure across the Middle Atlantic. This low pressure rapidly intensified as it moved off the Delmarva coast the morning of Thursday February 9 and then to the south and east of Long Island later later that day.
  • The southeast coast of Long Island including the eastern Hamptons and Montauk were warmer at the onset of the storm. Montauk was 41 degrees between 9 and 10 am in rain, before dropping to around 32 by 11 am in heavy snow. 
  • The day before the blizzard (Wednesday February 8), record warmth was observed across the Tri-State area. Record highs ranged from 62 at Central Park, NY to 65 at Newark, NJ.  Temperatures dropped 30-40 degrees in 12-15 hours as readings were in the middle-upper 20s during the height of the blizzard.

 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we had the Feb 2017 blizzard a day after the record 60°+ warmth.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Feb92017

  • Blizzard conditions occurred over Long Island, Southern Connecticut, and coastal portions of the Lower Hudson Valley from after sunrise into the late afternoon hours on February 9, 2017.
    • Snowfall totals ranged from 6" across portions of northeast New Jersey to around 10" in New York City to 12-16" across Long Island, southern Connecticut, and the Lower Hudson Valley. 
    • Thundersnow was observed across portions of Long Island and southern Connecticut. 
    • Snowfall rates range from 1 to 3 inches per hour with locally 4 inches per hour at times. 
  • The blizzard brought delays and cancellations to the regions transportations systems as well as numerous accidents on roadways. 
    • Approximately 2,000 flight cancellations and numerous delays occurred at the three major airports, Kennedy, Newark, and LaGuardia.
    • The Long Island Railroad had systemwide delays and cancelled 20 trains.
    • Multiple car accidents occurred on roads as well as several hundred rescues were performed by police/fire on Long Island. 

 

 Other Facts 
  • A cold front associated with low pressure across southeast Canada moved across the region on Wednesday February 8. Behind the cold front, an upper level trough amplfied across the midwest. Energy within this trough acted on the cold front to develop a new low pressure across the Middle Atlantic. This low pressure rapidly intensified as it moved off the Delmarva coast the morning of Thursday February 9 and then to the south and east of Long Island later later that day.
  • The southeast coast of Long Island including the eastern Hamptons and Montauk were warmer at the onset of the storm. Montauk was 41 degrees between 9 and 10 am in rain, before dropping to around 32 by 11 am in heavy snow. 
  • The day before the blizzard (Wednesday February 8), record warmth was observed across the Tri-State area. Record highs ranged from 62 at Central Park, NY to 65 at Newark, NJ.  Temperatures dropped 30-40 degrees in 12-15 hours as readings were in the middle-upper 20s during the height of the blizzard.

 

One of the best storms I've ever seen, like a half version of Jan 2016, all day zero visibility!

Wasnt that the storm that set the surge record in Boston too?

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This was the first time ACY had a 60°+ day before a daily snowfall of 12”+.

Day before high temperature and daily snowfall of 12”+

Maximum 1-Day Total Snowfall 
for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Value
Ending Date
Period of record: 1945-01-31 to 2022-01-03
1 35°  18.4 2010-12-26
2 27°  16.6 1979-02-19
3 32°  16.0 2003-02-16
4 40°  14.6 2010-02-06
5 23°  14.3 1987-01-26
6 32°  13.2 2018-01-04
7 62°  13.0 2022-01-03
8 29°  12.9 1964-01-13
9 32°  12.7 1996-01-07
10 38°  12.3 1989-02-24

 

I know there isn’t much stat support but these Day before near record warmth followed a day later by a snow storm, in my opinion  are not uncommon, and associated with leftover Large PW near the front and an oncoming intensifying short wave. 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we had the Feb 2017 blizzard a day after the record 60°+ warmth.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Feb92017

  • Blizzard conditions occurred over Long Island, Southern Connecticut, and coastal portions of the Lower Hudson Valley from after sunrise into the late afternoon hours on February 9, 2017.
    • Snowfall totals ranged from 6" across portions of northeast New Jersey to around 10" in New York City to 12-16" across Long Island, southern Connecticut, and the Lower Hudson Valley. 
    • Thundersnow was observed across portions of Long Island and southern Connecticut. 
    • Snowfall rates range from 1 to 3 inches per hour with locally 4 inches per hour at times. 
  • The blizzard brought delays and cancellations to the regions transportations systems as well as numerous accidents on roadways. 
    • Approximately 2,000 flight cancellations and numerous delays occurred at the three major airports, Kennedy, Newark, and LaGuardia.
    • The Long Island Railroad had systemwide delays and cancelled 20 trains.
    • Multiple car accidents occurred on roads as well as several hundred rescues were performed by police/fire on Long Island. 

 

 Other Facts 
  • A cold front associated with low pressure across southeast Canada moved across the region on Wednesday February 8. Behind the cold front, an upper level trough amplfied across the midwest. Energy within this trough acted on the cold front to develop a new low pressure across the Middle Atlantic. This low pressure rapidly intensified as it moved off the Delmarva coast the morning of Thursday February 9 and then to the south and east of Long Island later later that day.
  • The southeast coast of Long Island including the eastern Hamptons and Montauk were warmer at the onset of the storm. Montauk was 41 degrees between 9 and 10 am in rain, before dropping to around 32 by 11 am in heavy snow. 
  • The day before the blizzard (Wednesday February 8), record warmth was observed across the Tri-State area. Record highs ranged from 62 at Central Park, NY to 65 at Newark, NJ.  Temperatures dropped 30-40 degrees in 12-15 hours as readings were in the middle-upper 20s during the height of the blizzard.

 

For me the best warm day to snow is April Fools 1997. It was in the mid 50's here during the day and by about midnight there was 17" of glop on the ground. After a warm March and nearly snowless winter the soil temps were nearly 50* already and the trees were leafing out. It was a disaster...

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